Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GoTfan]

What are the implications of all of this for China?

Probably a bit less than for other players, given that whoever will have their hands on Russia's government will have to deal with China no matter what.
For what it's worth though, Kazakhstan is showing signs of independence from Russia or at least from Putin, considering Tokayev refused to allow Putin's plane to go into Kazakh airspace. That's maybe telling as to Chinese influence growing in the country.

I can't see Xi risking his neck for Putin, I'll say that much.

[GoTfan]

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-says-past-us-elections-were-rigged-2024-01-16/

"Putin says past U.S. elections were rigged"

He is talking mostly about vote harvesting

So he's just admitting to it now?

[GoTfan]

Ya great news that Ukraine is slowly getting stabbed in the back by an incompetent Europe and Putin simps in the US

Great news that American property rights and international norms regarding state sovereign immunity are being preserved (at least relatively).
I'd rather Ukraine lose and those norms remain preserved than Ukraine win and those norms be shattered.
Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.

So you consider property rights more important than halting an invasion?

[GoTfan]

Ya great news that Ukraine is slowly getting stabbed in the back by an incompetent Europe and Putin simps in the US

Great news that American property rights and international norms regarding state sovereign immunity are being preserved (at least relatively).
I'd rather Ukraine lose and those norms remain preserved than Ukraine win and those norms be shattered.
Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.

So you consider property rights more important than halting an invasion?

First of all, I do identify as a globalist and do value things that make globalization work. I care about stability and protecting the wealth of the United States, and sovereign immunity exists for good reason. Bluntly...Ukraine is one country out of around 200 and if we set disastrous precedent in how we fight Vlad's unnecessary war, we will have damaged the world to a greater degree than Putin ever has.

Ukraine is one country with less than 40 million people. There's over or around 200 countries and 8 billion people on this blue ball. Undermine property rights and you hurt all of them someway or another. Let's not get lost in tunnel vision. So, hell yes, I care more about property rights than halting an invasion. Harming property rights destabilizes the entire world, and if the West undertook that step , we'd be doing Putin's work for him. Hell no to that.

Lindbergh's committee was full of people who thought the exact same way.

I dunno, stopping an authoritarian dictator with dreams of restoring an expansionist state seems a bit more important than making sure some oligarchs assets aren't touched. If you're willing to sacrifice a nation because "property rights" then you have no moral compass to speak of, other than profit.

[GoTfan]

Ya great news that Ukraine is slowly getting stabbed in the back by an incompetent Europe and Putin simps in the US

Great news that American property rights and international norms regarding state sovereign immunity are being preserved (at least relatively).
I'd rather Ukraine lose and those norms remain preserved than Ukraine win and those norms be shattered.
Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.

So you consider property rights more important than halting an invasion?

First of all, I do identify as a globalist and do value things that make globalization work. I care about stability and protecting the wealth of the United States, and sovereign immunity exists for good reason. Bluntly...Ukraine is one country out of around 200 and if we set disastrous precedent in how we fight Vlad's unnecessary war, we will have damaged the world to a greater degree than Putin ever has.

Ukraine is one country with less than 40 million people. There's over or around 200 countries and 8 billion people on this blue ball. Undermine property rights and you hurt all of them someway or another. Let's not get lost in tunnel vision. So, hell yes, I care more about property rights than halting an invasion. Harming property rights destabilizes the entire world, and if the West undertook that step , we'd be doing Putin's work for him. Hell no to that.

Lindbergh's committee was full of people who thought the exact same way.

I dunno, stopping an authoritarian dictator with dreams of restoring an expansionist state seems a bit more important than making sure some oligarchs assets aren't touched. If you're willing to sacrifice a nation because "property rights" then you have no moral compass to speak of, other than profit.

If people like you were in charge of our foreign policy we'd already be in WW3. You don't know how to effectively defend the status quo against anti-system forces.
I've cheered on US bureaucracy using tricks to maximize the amount of money we've been able to send to Kiev and cheered the destruction of Nordstream 2. Your delusions as to who I am don't cease to become funny even after they've been shown to be utter bull. Keep up the good work. You're only making yourself look more like a clown every post you make. I appreciate you making me look better by comparison.

Yes. Freezing assets would cause World War 3. Or course it would

[GoTfan]

He probably does. He has talked many times about how the fall of the USSR was a tragedy and desires the return of the USSR and even Russian Imperial borders.

If you think he's going to stop at Ukraine, then you're not really paying attention.

[GoTfan]

Syrskyi just announced the withdrawal from Avdiivka, sad day but live to fight another day and the yellow and blue will fly over it again

Zero chance of that but keep believing in deep state, Andrew Perpetua, defmon and other morons claiming Russians lost tens of thousands of men in October.

The fact that you're using the term 'deep state' unironically is reason enough to ignore you.

[GoTfan]

Ah, the Kremlin shills are out in force tonight

[GoTfan]

Ah, the Kremlin shills are out in force tonight

A reminder of who they simp for
https://twitter.com/gwarworin/status/1761663941996945610?s=12

It's too bad you guys doctored the Russian video by taking out the subtitles, because it's pretty ignorant to remove the context form the post.  The soldier they hit is allegedly an American Mercenary that they mocked for coming to Ukraine "to shoot Russians".  I don't really understand why you're crying about captured soldiers that aren't going to be killed.  I'd be happy not to die.     

Mock executions are war crimes you sociopath

Go ahead and charge them you moron.  Go ahead and charge the Ukrainians that shot unarmed civilians in the street based on claims that they were 'Russian Collaborators'. We can have Amnesty International investigate both sides, and then you sociopaths can attack that organization when they conclude that both Ukraine and Russia are guilty.  

And you'd understand that this is not a mock execution if you actually watched the video.  They are being held as prisoners, and displayed on camera as propaganda for the Russians.  They weren't going to be killed.  In fact, Russia wanted you guys to post that video cause its their video of American POWs.  

Why are you simping for Russia?

[GoTfan]

Dear people that claim to be pro-peace (like Orban), does this sound like someone ready to negotiate?

"Asked about peace talks with Ukraine, Putin indicated he won't discuss surrendering territory annexed from Ukraine and appeared confident Russia’s army could advance further. “Holding negotiations now only because they are running out of ammunition is absurd for us.”"

Well, whether you like it or not, it's a valid argument, and not much different from why Israel or the people backing them internationally are not automatically pro-ceasefire.

There's no reason for Putin to unilaterally surrender territory back to Ukraine. They've taken the land. This is war, it's the Ukrainians' job to come take it back if they want to control it.  It's been almost 10 years now and they still haven't taken back Crimea or the eastern regions of the Donbass. If the Russians give any land back, it'll be a bargaining chip for the Russians to get something else they more want because the Ukrainians have demonstrated so far they have not been able to take it back based on the evidence of the years preceding this conflict in Crimea and the eastern regions of the Donbass, and during the life of this conflict that the lines of control have hardly moved for 21 months now.

That's called right of conquest.

[GoTfan]

Dear people that claim to be pro-peace (like Orban), does this sound like someone ready to negotiate?

"Asked about peace talks with Ukraine, Putin indicated he won't discuss surrendering territory annexed from Ukraine and appeared confident Russia’s army could advance further. “Holding negotiations now only because they are running out of ammunition is absurd for us.”"

Well, whether you like it or not, it's a valid argument, and not much different from why Israel or the people backing them internationally are not automatically pro-ceasefire.

There's no reason for Putin to unilaterally surrender territory back to Ukraine. They've taken the land. This is war, it's the Ukrainians' job to come take it back if they want to control it.  It's been almost 10 years now and they still haven't taken back Crimea or the eastern regions of the Donbass. If the Russians give any land back, it'll be a bargaining chip for the Russians to get something else they more want because the Ukrainians have demonstrated so far they have not been able to take it back based on the evidence of the years preceding this conflict in Crimea and the eastern regions of the Donbass, and during the life of this conflict that the lines of control have hardly moved for 21 months now.

That's called right of conquest.

Human history has existed for a very long time. It's foolish and arrogant of people to think we're so enlightened that the last 80 years have changed how the last few thousand years operated. And right of conquest still exists in the modern world, it's just not done with bullets typically, it's done via economics and demographics and politics. The U.S. has quite the number of vassal states across the whole globe.

But that is still a highly significant difference, isn't it.

Your argument seems to be the "realist" one that people are all still basically and unalterably primitive savages, and any attempts to alter this are ultimately doomed to failure.

People are not primitive savages, but people will always be in conflict with one another, be it war, trade, resources, politics, philosophy, labor negotiations, or who gets to date the pretty blonde girl in school. Why do you argue with complete strangers on this message board other than you want to engage in a war of ideas?

There's a lot of Arnold Toynbee watching Queen Victoria's Diamond Jubilee in your comment.

I don't even know what that sentence means, so it's entirely lost on me.

By your logic, we're free to invade New Zealand and it's ours if they can't fight us.

[GoTfan]

With Jaichin's spamming of any little bit of negative news about Ukraine, you'd almost think he's a Putin supporter.

[GoTfan]

Jaichind once again proving himself a Putin supporter.

[GoTfan]

Geez you made a comeback since the aid package passed. Panicking, vatnik?

[GoTfan]

Russian media calculations on how much collective West assets in Russia they might seize in response to collective West seizing Russian assets.  One problem is I suspect a lot of the Cyprus "foreign assets" are really held by Russians.  Cyprus is like the Russian Cayman Islands.  Also, I think this report understates the amount of Russian assets frozen by the collective West.  Still, the chart does show that net-net the total net asset gain from a seizure MAD is not as large as many might believe.

Russian media, as we know, is famously truthful and never lies or distorts facts.

[GoTfan]

It could not be more obvious that Jaichind is rooting for Russia.