Most populous county to vote Republican

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Trump- Miami-Dade
DeSantis- Orange

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No R nominee will win any of the listed SoCal counties or Clark NV unless they’re already winning the NPV. I’m also skeptical of either Don Giovanni or Ronny D outright winning Miami-Dade but would be less surprised if it happens with a D victory.

But thats the thing, a non Trump republican has a good chance of winning the NPV whether they are winning the EC or not

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Trump- Miami-Dade
DeSantis- Orange

Whether you mean Orange County, California or Orange County, Florida, it’s not happening.

You cannot convince me something is not up with Asian voters. Donald Trump lost Asians badly in Nevada but Lombardo only lost them by 8. And it's not like Lombardo won by double digits or anything. Same thing in Texas. Again, Abbott only lost Asians by 4, while Trump lost them by over 20 points. Yet Abbott only won by 10, with a swing like that you'd expect him to win by at least 20 statewide.

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Maricopa if the Republican wins, Suffolk if he loses.

I suspect Maricopa is gone for Trump even if he wins the state.

I don't think there's a reason to think a county Kari Lake -- who was at least vaguely perceived as more extreme than Trump -- only lost 49-51 is unwinnable even for a very hard MAGA Republican in the correct environment.

Maricopa if the Republican wins…

Maricopa County, and the state of Arizona, have realigned to the Democrats.

The next Republican pickup of the presidency will see the losing Democratic nominee carry Arizona (and, with it, Maricopa County).

This feels unlikely; every Republican that did better than a literal 50-50 carried Maricopa in 2022, including some that did so by double-digits (combined state legislative results, Kimberly Yee). I think there are reasons to think that AZ is continuing to trend Democratic, based on in-migration trends, but it's also very noticeable that AZ had a weak Republican slate in 2022 and where a candidate managed to run as "basically Generic Republican" they won the place we're discussing by double-digits. (Places similar to Maricopa elsewhere in the US also often voted Republican and sometimes very comfortably).

I do think Maricopa is winnable for a non Trump republican but I still expect it to vote to the left of the state. I don't think Rs even need Maricopa county to win AZ anymore

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No R nominee will win any of the listed SoCal counties or Clark NV unless they’re already winning the NPV. I’m also skeptical of either Don Giovanni or Ronny D outright winning Miami-Dade but would be less surprised if it happens with a D victory.

But thats the thing, a non Trump republican has a good chance of winning the NPV whether they are winning the EC or not

Republicans have fallen behind in a lot of large metropolitan areas and I think that problem will persist whether Trump is the nominee or not. So with current coalition Democrats are favored to win the PV in any competitive election. If a Republican is winning the PV then they already well pass 300+ EV. I also dont see a Republican winning the EV and losing PV happening at all unless we see some strange realingment.

I feel you are suffering from a recency bias in your assumption that it is nearly impossible that a Republican could win the popular vote in any competitive election. This is especially the case considering the apparent trends in the 2022 midterm results where Republicans dramatically over performed in NY, CA, FL, TX, etc., largely due to massive gains with Hispanics, Asians, and suburbanites in both Safe Blue States and the Sun Belt.

Much like the last time Republicans "dramatically over performed" in CA (2014), turnout was mediocre and was especially horrible in minority areas.

This doesn’t cut it. Jerry Brown did much better in the heavily Hispanic areas than Newsom and they won by similar margins statewide

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This is especially the case considering the apparent trends in the 2022 midterm results where Republicans dramatically over performed in NY, CA, FL, TX, etc., largely due to massive gains with Hispanics, Asians, and suburbanites in both Safe Blue States and the Sun Belt.

This is a lie. I've already addressed someone making basically the same claim before, so I'll just repeat my response verbatim:

Please stop talking about "places like New York and California". There is no such thing as "New York and California"; the two states are not similar and do not have similar voting patterns. I know it's hard to believe that there are places other than New York, but actually you cannot use election results in Chinese areas of New York City to determine how suburban Asians in California vote and it's both stupid and insulting to try.

Instead of just airily gesturing at "traditional values" of Asian voters, let's look at hard data about Asian voters in California. I've presented here in a convenient table the results of the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial elections in every majority-Asian municipality in California. They're even helpfully arranged by Asian percentage for you to see. There's also a trend column which shows the swing between 2018 and 2022 compared to the statewide swing between 2018 and 2022.

City	Pct Asian	2018	2022	Swing	Trend
BAY AREA
Milpitas	73.4%	D+38.9	D+33.9	R+5	D+0.5
Cupertino	69.9%	D+43.4	D+41.2	R+2.2	D+3.4
Fremont	64.7%	D+42.3	D+39.5	R+2.8	D+2.8
Union City	61.9%	D+54.8	D+47.6	R+7.3	R+1.7
Daly City	61.0%	D+56.9	D+53.1	R+3.8	D+1.7
Foster City	54.7%	D+43.5	D+45.6	D+2.2	D+7.7
Saratoga	54.4%	D+30.2	D+30.3	D+0.2	D+5.7
Millbrae	53.9%	D+33.2	D+33.3	D+0.1	D+5.6
Dublin	53.7%	D+37.9	D+38.6	D+0.7	D+6.2
Sunnyvale	52.4%	D+49.5	D+50	D+0.5	D+6
San Ramon	51.2%	D+29.9	D+32.2	D+2.3	D+7.8
Hercules	50.6%	D+56.3	D+55.4	R+0.9	D+4.6
LOS ANGELES
Monterey Park	69.6%	D+36.1	D+33.1	R+3	D+2.6
Walnut	69.2%	D+13.6	D+11	R+2.6	D+2.9
Rosemead	67.0%	D+44.4	D+32.7	R+11.6	R+6.1
San Gabriel	66.4%	D+32.1	D+24	R+8.1	R+2.5
Arcadia	65.9%	D+6.6	D+4	R+2.6	D+3
Cerritos	65.2%	D+19	D+16.4	R+2.6	D+3
Temple City	65.1%	D+11.8	D+7.9	R+4	D+1.6
San Marino	62.9%	R+3.3	D+1.4	D+4.8	D+10.3
Diamond Bar	60.8%	D+9.4	D+4.9	R+4.5	D+1.1
Alhambra	54.9%	D+43.8	D+38	R+5.8	R+0.3
Westminster	54.4%	R+2.2	R+7.5	R+5.3	D+0.3
La Palma	53.4%	D+1	D+3.3	D+2.3	D+7.8

As you can see, even though Newsom's performance was meaningfully worse in 2022 than in 2018, many majority-Asian municipalities actually swung toward him, and the ones that did not showed a smaller swing than the state as a whole. Based on these findings, if you must say something about trends among Asians in California, it would be much more honest and accurate to conclude that Asians are a Democratic-trending demographic. I know it's frustrating for people who think that non-white voters are boring and really want to be ahead of the curve in predicting that they'll become interesting, but that's the way it is! Sorry!

The assertion of "massive gains with suburbanites" is also false in California: of the 24 counties in the state where the swing against Newsom from 2018 to 2022 was larger than the statewide swing, only San Bernardino could accurately be described as primarily suburban. The three counties where Newsom did better in 2022 then in 2018 were Inyo, Marin, and Contra Costa, two of which are unambiguously suburban. On the whole, Democrats in California were most successful in 2022 relative to the past in suburbs. If you're going to talk about the vote in California, please make sure that what you say has any basis in reality.

Interlocutor is correct when he says that any Republican swing in California was caused purely by low turnout because there were no meaningful statewide votes on the ballot. California bears no relationship to New York or Florida.

Asians literally swung further right from Presidential to GCB than any other minority group. So no, that's not a "lie"