What types of voters flip in a Trump v Biden rematch?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't mean one off randos but will there be a general theme as to who the vote flippers are?

[Atlas Force]

Pro-incumbent voters are the obvious answer.

[Ferguson97]

Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
1. People who fell down one of the anti-vaxx, CRT, or anti-trans conspiracy rabbit holes since the election.
2. People who think that we haven't gotten any less divided since Biden took office, credit the pre-pandemic economy to Trump, and figure "If we're going to be divided anyway, might as well have a good economy."

Trump 2020 / Biden 2024:
1. Conservatives for whom January 6th was the red line.
2. Pro-choice people who thought Roe was settled law.
3. Some moderates who tend to favor incumbents.

#2, for both groups, are going to be the largest factor IMO.

[TDAS04]

Hispanics and Asians will trend Biden’s way.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

^ and Asian Americans, though they don’t get much attention (cause so many live in NYC and Cali), are also trending right. Here in NYC, there are some recognizable Chinese-American clusters in South Brooklyn that have been trending Republican for multiple election cycles. They were one of the many factors for Lee Zeldin’s solid performance last November

https://news.yahoo.com/more-asian-americans-voting-republican-230020012.html

Cope. The NYC Chinatowns were never not going to trend R in local elections barring a Steve Miller-type takeover of the GOP. This seemed rather obvious to me as far back as the Obama era.

Also the R trends the Nextshark article you linked speak of aren't necessarily "bad" or "preventable" for Dems so long as it's due to increased turnout from newer naturalized immigrants breaking close to 50-50. Blacks and Latinos also trended R in 2020 due to increased turnout.

Hispanics and Asians will trend Biden’s way.

This implies significant R trends among any or all other racial groups.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
1. People who fell down one of the anti-vaxx, CRT, or anti-trans conspiracy rabbit holes since the election.
2. People who think that we haven't gotten any less divided since Biden took office, credit the pre-pandemic economy to Trump, and figure "If we're going to be divided anyway, might as well have a good economy."

Trump 2020 / Biden 2024:
1. Conservatives for whom January 6th was the red line.
2. Pro-choice people who thought Roe was settled law.
3. Some moderates who tend to favor incumbents.

#2, for both groups, are going to be the largest factor IMO.

This is probably the best take so far. I don't want to attribute swings or trends to voter demographic groups because I feel like a lot of that will be determined by lower-propensity voters who weren't eligible to or didn't feel like voting in previous cycles.

[ProgressiveModerate]

^ and Asian Americans, though they don’t get much attention (cause so many live in NYC and Cali), are also trending right. Here in NYC, there are some recognizable Chinese-American clusters in South Brooklyn that have been trending Republican for multiple election cycles. They were one of the many factors for Lee Zeldin’s solid performance last November

https://news.yahoo.com/more-asian-americans-voting-republican-230020012.html

Cope. The NYC Chinatowns were never not going to trend R in local elections barring a Steve Miller-type takeover of the GOP. This seemed rather obvious to me as far back as the Obama era.

Also the R trends the Nextshark article you linked speak of aren't necessarily "bad" or "preventable" for Dems so long as it's due to increased turnout from newer naturalized immigrants breaking close to 50-50. Blacks and Latinos also trended R in 2020 due to increased turnout.

It’s not about turnout where new Chinese Americans are voting 50-50, nor is it “not bad” for Dems.  Dems have recently lost seats in local districts with large Chinese-American populations (eg Lester Chang in the 49th council district in 2022, Inna Vernikov in the 48th district in 2018 ). The Sunset Park area, which used to vote 70% Dem, voted for Lee Zeldin in 2022; and he won 23 predominantly Asian election districts combined in the two Assembly districts. Overall, Asian voters in NYC shifted 23% rightwards. (see: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/05/nyregion/election-asians-voting-republicans-nyc.html).In the year prior, as well, Curtis Sliwa got 44% of the vote in Asian-majority districts in NYC when he faced Eric Adams

In 2020, Asians voted 68-30% Dems nationally. In 2022, they voted 64%-32% Dem. In contrast, Dems had a 50-point advantage in 2004, a 56-point advantage in 2012, and a 61-point advantage in 2016

It's insane to think Zeldin nearly won a precinct in Chinatown (Manhattan). I think culturally, many Asian families tend to have more traditional values, so I think in some ways the GOP being more defined by social issues may actually help them with Asian American voters.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Bro every word of your response backed up my points. In what universe were the NYC Chinatown Chinese not going to shift hard R? A huge part of why POC don't vote GOP is white supremacy, but what "white supremacy" is there in the most racially diverse big city in the US that has the most even breakdown of racial groups and the most diverse array of immigrant nationalities? NYC Republicans were inevitably going to make gains with every nonwhite racial group once Dems became maxxed out.

CNN's exit polls are kind of sketch, but even if there was that big of a decline in percentage margin, the massive increase in eligible Asian American voter population over the last 20 years still translates to a net D gain in raw votes- ESPECIALLY in swing states where Dems have won the EC and Senate races.

[Ferguson97]

Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
1. People who fell down one of the anti-vaxx, CRT, or anti-trans conspiracy rabbit holes since the election.
2. People who think that we haven't gotten any less divided since Biden took office, credit the pre-pandemic economy to Trump, and figure "If we're going to be divided anyway, might as well have a good economy."

Trump 2020 / Biden 2024:
1. Conservatives for whom January 6th was the red line.
2. Pro-choice people who thought Roe was settled law.
3. Some moderates who tend to favor incumbents.

#2, for both groups, are going to be the largest factor IMO.

This is probably the best take so far. I don't want to attribute swings or trends to voter demographic groups because I feel like a lot of that will be determined by lower-propensity voters who weren't eligible to or didn't feel like voting in previous cycles.

I’ve thought this for a while, but I the the main reason that Biden gained with white men and Trump gained with everyone else because it was the highest turnout election in 100 years. I can totally buy that super low propensity white men lean Dem and low propensity of every other group Lean GOP.

If 2024 doesn’t have similar turnout, a lot of those trends could “reverse” as you said.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
1. People who fell down one of the anti-vaxx, CRT, or anti-trans conspiracy rabbit holes since the election.
2. People who think that we haven't gotten any less divided since Biden took office, credit the pre-pandemic economy to Trump, and figure "If we're going to be divided anyway, might as well have a good economy."

Trump 2020 / Biden 2024:
1. Conservatives for whom January 6th was the red line.
2. Pro-choice people who thought Roe was settled law.
3. Some moderates who tend to favor incumbents.

#2, for both groups, are going to be the largest factor IMO.

Good post.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
1. People who fell down one of the anti-vaxx, CRT, or anti-trans conspiracy rabbit holes since the election.
2. People who think that we haven't gotten any less divided since Biden took office, credit the pre-pandemic economy to Trump, and figure "If we're going to be divided anyway, might as well have a good economy."

Trump 2020 / Biden 2024:
1. Conservatives for whom January 6th was the red line.
2. Pro-choice people who thought Roe was settled law.
3. Some moderates who tend to favor incumbents.

#2, for both groups, are going to be the largest factor IMO.

Based on 2022, a third group of Biden 2020 / Trump 2024 might be people concerned about crime, especially in cities in places like NY and CA. Won’t be enough to flip those states obviously but we might see enough of that sort of thing to ironically narrow the popular vote even if Biden does just as well or better in the EC.

[Ferguson97]

Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
1. People who fell down one of the anti-vaxx, CRT, or anti-trans conspiracy rabbit holes since the election.
2. People who think that we haven't gotten any less divided since Biden took office, credit the pre-pandemic economy to Trump, and figure "If we're going to be divided anyway, might as well have a good economy."

Trump 2020 / Biden 2024:
1. Conservatives for whom January 6th was the red line.
2. Pro-choice people who thought Roe was settled law.
3. Some moderates who tend to favor incumbents.

#2, for both groups, are going to be the largest factor IMO.

Based on 2022, a third group of Biden 2020 / Trump 2024 might be people concerned about crime, especially in cities in places like NY and CA. Won’t be enough to flip those states obviously but we might see enough of that sort of thing to ironically narrow the popular vote even if Biden does just as well or better in the EC.

Maybe, but I think that these are the kind of people to vote Biden/downballot GOP.

[TDAS04]

Hispanics and Asians will trend Biden’s way.

Explain? Latinos clearly have been trending Republican recently and Biden has done nothing to bring them back.

Both groups have pro-incumbent tendencies.

I’m not certain how they’ll trend (probably a bit less certain for Asians).  Trump improved among minorities in 2020, but since leaving office he’s not really done any more to reach out.  Biden has time to reach out more and promote reasonable immigration policies.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jack Murtha voters Vets like my dad was whom are turned off by the R party that was supposed to control spending on the Debt Ceiling and the RS haven't come up with budget to control inflation why do you think Fox is being sued now because D's are gonna win in 24 and women are suing the network

RS when they got the H back was supposed to control inflation and Debt but you can't without raising taxes on rich. BUSH H raised TAXES, the Fed did all it has DONE, but rents are still out of control in NY, FL, AZ, CA and HI, reparations will help blks with rents and we lose 1T on poverty food stamps anyways

Rents are dropping in the Rust belt not in coastal areas

[Suburbia]

Black men

[oldtimer]

^ and Asian Americans, though they don’t get much attention (cause so many live in NYC and Cali), are also trending right. Here in NYC, there are some recognizable Chinese-American clusters in South Brooklyn that have been trending Republican for multiple election cycles. They were one of the many factors for Lee Zeldin’s solid performance last November

https://news.yahoo.com/more-asian-americans-voting-republican-230020012.html

Cope. The NYC Chinatowns were never not going to trend R in local elections barring a Steve Miller-type takeover of the GOP. This seemed rather obvious to me as far back as the Obama era.

Also the R trends the Nextshark article you linked speak of aren't necessarily "bad" or "preventable" for Dems so long as it's due to increased turnout from newer naturalized immigrants breaking close to 50-50. Blacks and Latinos also trended R in 2020 due to increased turnout.

It’s not about turnout where new Chinese Americans are voting 50-50, nor is it “not bad” for Dems.  Dems have recently lost seats in local districts with large Chinese-American populations (eg Lester Chang in the 49th council district in 2022, Inna Vernikov in the 48th district in 2018 ). The Sunset Park area, which used to vote 70% Dem, voted for Lee Zeldin in 2022; and he won 23 predominantly Asian election districts combined in the two Assembly districts. Overall, Asian voters in NYC shifted 23% rightwards. (see: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/05/nyregion/election-asians-voting-republicans-nyc.html).In the year prior, as well, Curtis Sliwa got 44% of the vote in Asian-majority districts in NYC when he faced Eric Adams

In 2020, Asians voted 68-30% Dems nationally. In 2022, they voted 64%-32% Dem. In contrast, Dems had a 50-point advantage in 2004, a 56-point advantage in 2012, and a 61-point advantage in 2016

It's insane to think Zeldin nearly won a precinct in Chinatown (Manhattan). I think culturally, many Asian families tend to have more traditional values, so I think in some ways the GOP being more defined by social issues may actually help them with Asian American voters.

It helps them with all minorities, not just Asians.

But African Americans are the only ones not budging so far.

However gaining with Minorities doesn't help you win Presidencies or the Senate, unless you win 60%+ of them. At that point New York flips and California becomes a swing state.
 
So far it will help the GOP, but only in the House.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

It helps them with all minorities, not just Asians.

But African Americans are the only ones not budging so far.

However gaining with Minorities doesn't help you win Presidencies or the Senate, unless you win 60%+ of them. At that point New York flips and California becomes a swing state.
 
So far it will help the GOP, but only in the House.

I do think there are reasons why the NYC Chinatowns specifically would be more susceptible to supporting local/state/federal R's than Chinese Americans elsewhere would be- or other Asian groups or immigrant groups in NYC for that matter. But that's irrelevant to this thread, and I won't comment on communities I have no real-life exposure to or interaction with.

In any case, I wouldn't be so bullish on where Dems stand with Black voters either. Sky-high margins of victory don't matter if turnout plummets.

[oldtimer]

Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
1. People who fell down one of the anti-vaxx, CRT, or anti-trans conspiracy rabbit holes since the election.
2. People who think that we haven't gotten any less divided since Biden took office, credit the pre-pandemic economy to Trump, and figure "If we're going to be divided anyway, might as well have a good economy."

Trump 2020 / Biden 2024:
1. Conservatives for whom January 6th was the red line.
2. Pro-choice people who thought Roe was settled law.
3. Some moderates who tend to favor incumbents.

#2, for both groups, are going to be the largest factor IMO.

Let me examine it.

Category 1: Probably people from Marin county or DC suburbs, so their vote is practically immaterial.

Category 2: Now that is the big one. Trump is though the most pro-choice republican nominee in a while and the economy is very good, that might complicate things.

Category 3: I'm not convinced that's not a myth. Trump, Bush Sr. and Carter didn't get any.

[Хahar 🤔]

Please stop talking about "places like New York and California". There is no such thing as "New York and California"; the two states are not similar and do not have similar voting patterns. I know it's hard to believe that there are places other than New York, but actually you cannot use election results in Chinese areas of New York City to determine how suburban Asians in California vote and it's both stupid and insulting to try.

Instead of just airily gesturing at "traditional values" of Asian voters, let's look at hard data about Asian voters in California. I've presented here in a convenient table the results of the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial elections in every majority-Asian municipality in California. They're even helpfully arranged by Asian percentage for you to see. There's also a trend column which shows the swing between 2018 and 2022 compared to the statewide swing between 2018 and 2022.

City	Pct Asian	2018	2022	Swing	Trend
BAY AREA
Milpitas	73.4%	D+38.9	D+33.9	R+5	D+0.5
Cupertino	69.9%	D+43.4	D+41.2	R+2.2	D+3.4
Fremont	64.7%	D+42.3	D+39.5	R+2.8	D+2.8
Union City	61.9%	D+54.8	D+47.6	R+7.3	R+1.7
Daly City	61.0%	D+56.9	D+53.1	R+3.8	D+1.7
Foster City	54.7%	D+43.5	D+45.6	D+2.2	D+7.7
Saratoga	54.4%	D+30.2	D+30.3	D+0.2	D+5.7
Millbrae	53.9%	D+33.2	D+33.3	D+0.1	D+5.6
Dublin	53.7%	D+37.9	D+38.6	D+0.7	D+6.2
Sunnyvale	52.4%	D+49.5	D+50	D+0.5	D+6
San Ramon	51.2%	D+29.9	D+32.2	D+2.3	D+7.8
Hercules	50.6%	D+56.3	D+55.4	R+0.9	D+4.6
LOS ANGELES
Monterey Park	69.6%	D+36.1	D+33.1	R+3	D+2.6
Walnut	69.2%	D+13.6	D+11	R+2.6	D+2.9
Rosemead	67.0%	D+44.4	D+32.7	R+11.6	R+6.1
San Gabriel	66.4%	D+32.1	D+24	R+8.1	R+2.5
Arcadia	65.9%	D+6.6	D+4	R+2.6	D+3
Cerritos	65.2%	D+19	D+16.4	R+2.6	D+3
Temple City	65.1%	D+11.8	D+7.9	R+4	D+1.6
San Marino	62.9%	R+3.3	D+1.4	D+4.8	D+10.3
Diamond Bar	60.8%	D+9.4	D+4.9	R+4.5	D+1.1
Alhambra	54.9%	D+43.8	D+38	R+5.8	R+0.3
Westminster	54.4%	R+2.2	R+7.5	R+5.3	D+0.3
La Palma	53.4%	D+1	D+3.3	D+2.3	D+7.8

As you can see, even though Newsom's performance was meaningfully worse in 2022 than in 2018, many majority-Asian municipalities actually swung toward him, and the ones that did not showed a smaller swing than the state as a whole. Based on these findings, if you must say something about trends among Asians in California, it would be much more honest and accurate to conclude that Asians are a Democratic-trending demographic. I know it's frustrating for people who think that non-white voters are boring and really want to be ahead of the curve in predicting that they'll become interesting, but that's the way it is! Sorry!

New York City is not representative of anything, and that includes Asians.

[Mr. Smith]

Too early to call.

Remember, it really wasn't until Late 2016 with the "Deplorables" comment that it could be gathered who the "Obama-Trump" bloc would be, even as the "Romney-Clinton" bloc made themselves well known.

And it wasn't until The Chuck Todd Watching Boomers collectively overthrew Bernie after he dared do the homework to win Nevada, thus elevating Biden, whose campaign treated the Hispanic vote largely the same way Hillary did young'uns, for granted [or granite, y'know set in stone?]

Ergo the jury's out until at least Super Tuesday.