2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Almost none of these are going anywhere in a presidential year. Sure, PA-08, WA-03, and OH-09 could always fall most of the others other went for Biden or solidly went for him.

Except we don't know what the environment will look like in 2024. It could be a d leaning year, a red leaning year or a red tsunami.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Almost none of these are going anywhere in a presidential year. Sure, PA-08, WA-03, and OH-09 could always fall most of the others other went for Biden or solidly went for him.

Except we don't know what the environment will look like in 2024. It could be a d leaning year, a red leaning year or a red tsunami.

Why not a blue tsunami?

Should have put that lol. It would be unprecedented for a Blue tsunami with a dem president but hey, this year was unprecedented too

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1651575445375074306

Dang it, that's not good enough, especially not for the Senate.

Except we don't know if the Democrats increasing geographical strength will or won't continue. This isn't 2012 anymore, SL

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Mondaire Jones is gearing up to run for his old seat again, setting up a primary fight between him and Liz Whitmer Gereghty (Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer's sister):

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/28/dem-primary-exlawmaker-govs-sister-00094269

Gereghty would be a stronger candidate although I am not sold on her either.

She would suck too. Granted, we might get a more favorable map in NY but who knows

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1701946015950000527

Nope, Sykes would have beaten her too. Extremely easy to paint as an out of touch partisan

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Change Research, among 18-34 year olds - GCB:
Dem candidate: 55%
Rep candidate: 25%
Not sure 20%

https://changeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Teen-Vogue-_-Youth-Voter-Poll-_-Toplines_Tracker-Aug-2023.docx.pdf

18-29 year olds were D+28 in 2022

I don't believe for a second that the GOP will make anything more than marginal gains with young voters. But will they turn out?

Yes they will turn out. And it’s clear higher turnout benefit republicans at this point. Even higher Hispanic turnout probably benefit the Gop now

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I notice J. R. Majewski is attacking the likely OH-09 nominee Craig Riedel for being anti-UAW, maybe Majewski will get back in the race.


I would definitely support him, especially as those "stolen valor" claims were debunked after the midterms by records being released (of course it only is released now). Kaptur and the DCCC should be ashamed of themselves for spreading fake news, and the NRCC should be ashamed for buying into it and cutting funding.

They were not debunked

So you disagree with official air force records?

https://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2023/08/31/majewski-air-force-medal-added-to-record/stories/20230831119
https://www.einpresswire.com/article/652896461/j-r-majewski-former-ohio-cd9-candidate-served-in-afghanistan-updated-dd-form-214-confirms

The AP claimed Majewski didn't serve in Afghanistan because he didn't recieve the medal people typically get when they serve more then 30 days in the position he had.
The air force recently released documents that shows he DID earn that medal and that he served in Afghanistan

You can't just call anything you dislike fake news even if it's true.

He still would have lost badly lol. He’s a joke and further proof that running in a competitive district trying to appeal to absolute morons while turning off everyone else might get you mid 40s but you’ve got zero chance of actually winning, because unlike Trump, he doesn’t have the benefit of the election being totally nationalized.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

This is the year, I feel it. Seriously though, he’s the chair of the freedom caucus, we need to use that title against him

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Perry is very easy to run a campaign against, no one likes the freedom caucus

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

This is the year, I feel it. Seriously though, he’s the chair of the freedom caucus, we need to use that title against him

Didn't even DR Oz win this district though?

The freedom caucus is toxic to any district less than like Trump+9-10. No one supports them. The voters however, might not be aware of this because they don't pay attention to politics much, which might be why Perry has skated by. But any appeal he has can be destroyed very easily by a strong candidate

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1719024488455471394https://twitter.com/gavinbena/status/1719040543177482314

Omar is more likely to win re nomination than bush imo

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Don’t see Bell doing much better than Steve Roberts. I don’t know anyone who’d vote for Cori Bush in 2022 but not 2024.

Omar won her primary in a landslide in 2020 and nearly lost in 2022. What changed for her in between?

That was more of a turnout thing. I can’t see turnout becoming more favorable towards Bell in 2024 than 2022.

I think Omar may win her primary but this is just lol. White leftists have disproportionately high turnout.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Another Safe D district is open-

https://twitter.com/NigelJaquiss/status/1719142958287761683?s=20

Probably Squad +1 tbh

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1720595182658228478

Dems Recruitment is God Tier this cycle, ngl

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/missycottersmas/status/1737995798141599874?t=bzlx29NWEd47-oh...
Congrats on Jen Kiggans for winning a 2nd term!

I feel like VA-02 and NJ-07 are the most glaring recruitment failures for House Democrats. Doesn’t mean either of them can’t lose, but the fields in both races look pretty underwhelming.

With Trump on the ballot it provides a lot of contrast to generic, "boring", normal Republicans and thus improves voters image of them. We saw this in both 2016 and 2020, but yeah it doesn't help when you can't recruit a decent opponent either.

Only thing is Biden is so unpopular a lot of democrats look better than him right now just not being him

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/missycottersmas/status/1737995798141599874?t=bzlx29NWEd47-oh...
Congrats on Jen Kiggans for winning a 2nd term!

I feel like VA-02 and NJ-07 are the most glaring recruitment failures for House Democrats. Doesn’t mean either of them can’t lose, but the fields in both races look pretty underwhelming.

With Trump on the ballot it provides a lot of contrast to generic, "boring", normal Republicans and thus improves voters image of them. We saw this in both 2016 and 2020, but yeah it doesn't help when you can't recruit a decent opponent either.

Kiggans isnt even moderate lol. It’s so pathetic

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4425708-scott-perry-gop-house-seat-challenger-newman/

Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) being challenged by another Republican in the primary,  This seat is vulnerable and the Dem primary is very crowded.  Scott Perry is one of the most extreme election denial/"Stop the Steal" types in the Congress (Chairman of the House Freedom Caucus) and he's too far to the right for the district.

It was Trump 51-47 in 2020, voted for Shapiro by 55-43, and for Oz 49-48.

If he doesn't get defeated in 2024, this is one of the top pickup opportunities in 2026 under Trump midterm!

I think Biden doesn’t need to win this district for Perry to lose. I’m getting Scott Garret vibes here

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-endorse-candidates-house-majority-rcna135967

DCCC endorsed their first Red to Blue candidates:

AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (held by Rep. Juan Ciscomani)
CA-13: Adam Gray (held by Rep. John Duarte)
CA-22: Rudy Salas (held by Rep. David Valadao)
CA-27: George Whitesides (held by Rep. Mike Garcia)
CA-41: Will Rollins (held by Rep. Ken Calvert)
CO-03: Adam Frisch (open seat)
IA-01: Christina Bohannan (held by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks)
IA-03: Lanon Baccam (held by Rep. Zach Nunn)
MI-07: Curtis Hertel (open seat)
MT-01: Monica Tranel (held by Rep. Ryan Zinke)
NE-02: Tony Vargas (held by Rep. Don Bacon)
NY-03: Tom Suozzi (open)
NY-17: Mondaire Jones (held by Rep. Mike Lawler)
NY-19: Josh Riley (held by Rep. Marc Molinaro)
OR-05: Janelle Bynum (held by Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer)
TX-15: Michelle Vallejo (held by Rep. Monica De La Cruz)
VA-02: Missy Cotter Smasal (held by Rep. Jen Kiggans)

Two things I noticed: no endorsements in several highly competitive districts (AZ-01, CA-45, CA-47, MI-10, NJ-07, NY-04, NY-22, PA-10) and they're relying pretty heavily on retread candidates.

Wouldn't really say "relying on" given that most of the "retread" candidates have already pretty much consolidated the contests and are the de-facto nominees even without DCCC wading in.

Disagree about OR-5

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Whitney Fox hauls $200K+ in Q4 in battle to unseat Anna Paulina Luna

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/653224-whitney-fox-hauls-200k-in-q4-in-battle-to-unseat-anna-paulina-luna/

Whitney Fox, a Democrat running for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, has raised more than $200,000 for her bid.

Fox’s fundraising numbers are self-reported — financial reports aren’t due to the Federal Division of Elections until the end of the month — so details about donors aren’t yet available. But Fox’s campaign is touting its momentum early in the race, with the earnings coming over just nine weeks on the campaign trail.

Fox reported most of her donors are Florida-based and that the average ‘grassroots’ donation is just over $31.

“Pinellas County deserves representation in Congress who will lead with compassion and pragmatism, reject partisan politics, and work with others to get things done,” Fox said.

Likely R, at best.

This could be Lean R honestly. Luna is a weaker than normal candidate for her seat not unlike Boebert.

Yes, Luna is crazy.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

538 GCB: R+1.2
R 44.4%
D 43.2%

Recent polls:
McLaughlin: R+4 (46-42)
NBC News: R+4 (49-45)
Emerson: R+1 (43-42)
YouGov/Yahoo: tie (42-42)
YouGov/Economist: D+1 (43-42)
Clarity: D+1 (45-44)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

Hot take- I don't even know if R's can afford to lose the generic ballot at this point. I think the days of R's having the house advantage(being able to win without the house PV) are gone.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

Since I posted this, this has transformed into panic about getting locked out as Mathys has proven resilient and Valadao is not hitting him (he doesn't need to, Valadao has enough name ID as the incumbent and appeal to independents/non-ideologues to take one of the top two spots, so this dynamic benefits him).

There is intense desire within the party to not have Hurtado as the nominee - I don't know why - but there is going to be a big push to get Salas through (if there isn't one already, I've been offline for some time dealing with stuff and am just getting reoriented now).

From the looks of it, Hurtado can’t fundraise to save her life.

Salas isn't doing great either for that matter but Hurtado is like James Craig levels of poor fundraising

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1758927878492721429
FWIW, the primary between Min and Weiss has become extremely nasty.

Press X to doubt re: Min advancing

That would be great if he lost to Weiss. The DUI would make this more competitive than it should be

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

IA-03 is def interesting; I think many people overestimate how red the district actually is, especially since Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 (underperforming Trump) and didn't do all that impressive in 2022.

Still, it's an uphill battle and I'd say Trump probably carries IA-03 again Presidentially; really the only good part of the district for Dems at this point is Johnson County and idk how many more votes they can squeeze out of it.

Miller-Meeks represents IA-1, and Johnson County is in IA-1 too.  

IA-3 is the Des Moines district represented by Zach Nunn.

But anyway, I think IA-3 is a swing district the rest of the decade.   Nunn only won by 0.7% in 2022 and that was with no Libertarian on the ballot.   Polk and Dallas Counties are still growing and trending D, and are the overwhelming majority of the district too.  

Nunn is definitely someone I think outruns Trump this year.

Agreed but Baccam seems like an A tier recruit so it won't be that much.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

GOP staying out of Las Vegas is an interesting development

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1793695332447985787

So Trump’s supposedly ahead in the state by 7-12 points, but Republicans are triaging every competitive house seat in the state? Huh.

Yeah it's very possible GOP does not believe those polls, which I don't blame them. If Trump was winning by 9% in Nevada, they would absolutely be playing here - even given how well Dems did in 2022.

I know people will call me a hack for this but I really do think Trump is being overestimated in most polling. I still think he narrowly wins in the end unfortunately, but not by as much as we're seeing now.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wasn't SC-01 like Trump +8 in 2020 (and moving leftward?) Safe R seems a bit much.

They have FL-13 at Likely R too. If that’s not considered Safe R neither should SC-01.

Also both have Dems with decent fundraising.

Luna is an atrocious candidate, on par with Boebert