TX-SEN: True to Form

[UWS]

Maybe O'Rourke could need help from Warren Buffet and George Soros in order to edge Ted Cruz in terms of campaign funding. I don't think it would hurt him since, on the other hand, Cruz would already be endorsed by the Koch Brothers.

Maybe even Mark Cuban's money could be an asset since Cuban is also from Texas and has endorsed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.

[UWS]

He holds super pac money high and he lies! Lyin' Ted!

Give an example of a lie.

http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2016/may/09/ted-cruz/cruz-claims-obama-administration-sponsored-un-reso/

Here you go.

Oh, wait. I forgot that the only sources you accept are Breitbart and Infowars.

And he lied about Ben Carson during the Iowa caucuses while Carson did not drop out, which helped him to get votes away from Carson. No wonder that we call him Lyin' Ted.

L-Y-I-N' T-E-D!

[UWS]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/375407-democrat-outraises-ted-cruz-in-texas-senate-race-so-far-in-2018

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At this point, Ted Cruz has Mark Warner 2014 written all over him.

More like George Allen 2006.

Also possible, but Allen saw a competitive-ish race coming and the outcome hinged heavily on a single campaign gaffe.  I don't see Cruz making a mistake that severe.

Except maybe for his recent comments on The Simpsons.

[UWS]

Maybe O'Rourke could use this against Cruz during the 2018 senate campaign in order to destroy him when talking economy by attacking him on his role in the lawsuit defending a Chinese company that stole an American invention and blueprints.

http://www.politifact.com/new-hampshire/statements/2016/feb/07/marco-rubio/rubio-attacks-cruz-role-lawsuit-defending-chinese-/

[UWS]

one of mah coll-eegs over at Texahs said the followin "I don't know. I'm even seeing a lot of Beto signs in the yuppie Highland Park area outside of Dallas. Not sure if that area normally leans left, but I would be shocked if it does."

now this quote got me here thinkin' mah fellow 'merican Cruz is uh bout to get a bigger ass whoopin from Papa Beto than mah paps gave me as a lil lad, and boy was that smart.

i yoused ta think that beta was gonna get his effette twinky butt handed to him by ol lyin ted, but dat dere ol quinnipiac poll gave me second thoughts. looks like teddy might be headed to the woodshed thanks to the (((bushes))) and their clan getting revenge for jeb, plus all dem illegals floodin over the boarder.

i'll be ratin dis one likely d

All Ted Cruz has to do to win back Highland Park is to admit that Trump was right regarding Cruz's father's complicity in the JFK assassination.

All he has to do to win elsewhere in the state is just to say "Brooklyn Beto."

But O'Rourke is not even from Brooklyn.

[UWS]

Boooo

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/997651281966718977

I'm wondering which poll source it will be because its accuracy surely depends on it if it takes so long before publishing it.

[UWS]

I will say it's super-weird that I haven't seen a single yardsign or bumper sticker for Lyin' Ted even when driving around really Republican areas. Every GOP sign is either for Trump, House candidates, or some local judge.

He's probably waiting until Labor Day to start campaigning there's no need to start campaigning this early when you are already the incumbent

So it gives enough time for O’Rourke to campaign in all the four corners of Texas and to connect with voters. So I guess such a move by Ted Cruz could be suicidal.

[UWS]

Lying Ted Cruz changes position on child seperation after Beto's rally outside a children detention center....Lyin Ted is chokin like a dog

https://www.twitter.com/dmartosko/status/1008831557396770823?s=19

What? I wonder which impact it could have on his support among Tea Party voters.

Flip-floppin’ Lyin’ Ted

https://thelibertyconservative.com/ted-cruzs-biggest-flip-flops/

[UWS]

O'Rourke has campaigned in all 254 counties already. Impressive.

Even Loving County?  There are like, 80 people total there, lol.

Every single vote counts, that's why O'Rourke campaigns there because we all know that any election could be won very, very, very narrowly, especially if O'Rourke wants to become the first Democrat to win a senate race in Texas since 1994.

[UWS]

Lol at people saying “but Clinton won it 1992!”


What would those same people say to someone in 2004 who said “but Reagan won California in ‘84?”

Roughly the same time elapsed.....

W actually thought he could win CA in 2000 (not 2004, obviously, but still)

But Bush did better in California in 2004 than 2000, actually. Kerry won it by less than 10 percentage points. Maybe if Bin Laden was killed during the Battle of Tora Bora in 2001, like it almost happened, so before the 2004 election, maybe Bush could have pulled an upset and won California.

[UWS]

People for the American Way’s Latinos Vote just started airing a TV ad in Texas slamming Ted Cruz on Trump’s child prison program and calling people to vote for Beto O’Rourke for the sake of immigrant families.

http://www.pfaw.org/press-releases/saturday-new-ad-airing-in-texas-slams-ted-cruz-on-trumps-child-prison-program-says-beto-orourke-will-fight-for-children-and-families/

[UWS]

O’Rourke pressure Cruz into a debate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/396438-cruz-has-yet-to-set-date-to-debate-dem-challenger

Its interesting that Cruz doesnt want to debate Beto, even though its been shown that Beto is still a relative lightweight, and Cruz is a master debater. What is he afraid of?

Oh Cruz is definitely a master debater. We know that all right.

I mean, he is. He went to Harvard thanks to his debate skills and, during the O years, was routinely the filibusterer and speaker for the Rs. When he went up against Sanders, even I, agree that he did remarkably well. And Beto is not the greatest. Early on, he fell into a Fox News trap in an interview he arranged.
Its just weird in my opinion. He has little to lose from this and everything to gain. Why wont he do it? Is this race close, like anything can flip this race close? Or is Cruz afraid of losing the debate? What is it?

Name recognition is O'Rourke's main weakness, and debates are golden opportunities for unknown candidates to introduce themselves. My guess is he doesn't want to give him the chance.

When it comes to the debates, I think the reason why Cruz is afraid to debate is because he will be likely to tell several lies during such debates like he did during the primaries. No wonder he is Lyin' Ted.

[UWS]

Outraising Cruz with $10 million in campaign donations, trailing him by just 2 percentage points according to Civiqs, pressuring Cruz for a debate, an immigration crisis that seems to be mobilizing Texas' Hispanic vote in favor of O'Rourke, etc.

O'Rourke seems to be having a good summer.

[UWS]

Beto will win this race on election day, not by daily tracking polls, in which failed to predict the chances of Gillespie against Warner. Which it will be an upset if Beto were to win

Even in the 2016 presidential election most of the polls were predicting that Hillary Clinton would win before the whole world was stunned when Donald Trump won the election thanks to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So even there, the polls failed to predict the outcome of the presidential election.

So we should expect such surprises for the 2018 midterms.

[UWS]

Beto will win this race on election day, not by daily tracking polls, in which failed to predict the chances of Gillespie against Warner. Which it will be an upset if Beto were to win

Even in the 2016 presidential election most of the polls were predicting that Hillary Clinton would win before the whole world was stunned when Donald Trump won the election thanks to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So even there, the polls failed to predict the outcome of the presidential election.

So we should expect such surprises for the 2018 midterms.

We *should* expect surprises in the 2018 election, as with all elections, but doing so on the basis of polling error in 2016 is unfounded.

The polls in 2016 showed Clinton with a 1-3 point lead in the popular vote and she ended up with a 3 point lead in the election. It wasn't the polls that failed in 2016, it was the interpretation of them by forecasters, most of whom did not appreciate how tenuous Clinton's lead was in the states you mentioned.

Anyway, back to Texas: is there any possibility that Cruz could depress his own turnout by being insufficiently hard line about the ICE child refugee prisons and family separation policy? It seems like the sort of thing that Texas Republicans would take the most extreme positions on, but Cruz has been somewhat soft on the issue.

Cruz and the tx gop seem to be making the same mistake that Clinton in 2016 and mark warner made in 2014. Overconfidence Cruz is convinced he is going to win that's all they keep talking about 'Texas is a red state and its going to be that way for a long time to come" that will depress turnout among your base. Why show up if you know your going to win?

Meanwhile, the Democratic turnout in Texas seems likely to be much stronger than ever before, which could play in favor of O'Rourke.

[UWS]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

Republicans won an unfortunate special election in Massachusetts too.

Massachusetts is more elastic than Texas, though. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since Ann Richards in 1990. Since 1990, Massachusetts has only had one Democratic governor.

Well, the Democrats haven’t won a senate race in Alabama for 25 years until they won with Doug Jones. And Texas votes in the left of Alabama so Texas is more winnable for the Democrats than Alabama is.

[UWS]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

Republicans won an unfortunate special election in Massachusetts too.

Massachusetts is more elastic than Texas, though. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since Ann Richards in 1990. Since 1990, Massachusetts has only had one Democratic governor.

Well, the Democrats haven’t won a senate race in Alabama for 25 years until they won with Doug Jones. And Texas votes in the left of Alabama so Texas is more winnable for the Democrats than Alabama is.

At the same time though, Jones' win was kind of a fluke based on Roy Moore being an alleged pedophile. Ted Cruz is a pretty reprehensible, unlikable person; but not to the point that he has  a major liability that is associated with him like Moore did.

I know this is the narrative that's taken hold in the Beltway Political Press, and it's true to a certain extent, but it's important to remember that:

1) Alabama Republican voters largely didn't believe the allegations against Moore
2) To the extent that they did believe them, the Right Wing Media Machine and Evangelical Pastors made excuses for his conduct
2a) Moore's most devoted supporters devolved to using the abortion crutch: OH YEAH MAYBE MOORE DOES DIDDLE LITTLE KIDS, BUT DOUG JONES SUPPORTS KILLING THEM IN THE WOMB!!! MUH ABORTION GENOCIDE!!!
3) The allegations distracted from Moore's positions on the issues, which are extreme even for Alabama, just like Cruz's are for Texas
4) Jones was actually a good candidate, and Beto is an even better one

Beto is too far-left for Texas.  Texans don't support banning guns, for one thing, like Beto does. Also, Berniecare would be too much of a stretch.

If Cruz talks about banning guns or restricting gun rights, he's one to talk.

http://www.politicsincolor.com/has-ted-cruz-flip-flopped-on-gun-control/

[UWS]

Interesting

Beto calls for Trump's impeachment after Putin Summit

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/397469-cruz-challenger-calls-for-trumps-impeachment-over-putin-summit

Wonder what hes playing at? My guess is raising his statewide recognition.

And this is why O'Rourke is not going to win this year. Calling for impeachment over this is frivolous. What Trump said was wrong, and was rightly condemned, but his words do not rise to the standard necessary for impeachment.

Oh, so treason isn't a standard for impeachment?

Trump did not commit treason yesterday. His words were wrong, but he did not commit treason. Serious evidence is required, indicating an impeachable offense, before he can be impeached.

guys, the two presidents to be impeached, Johnson and Clinton, were done so by rather flimsy circumstances. In fact, the Radical Rs set a trap for Johnson so they could impeach him. Technically, Dems could impeach on literally any law set forward, such as the fact that he has not put his stuff in a blind trust. That is impeachable, its not just treason.

But impeaching Trump for words would be even flimsier then what Johnson and Clinton were impeached for.  And I don't think those impeachments were necessarily proper either. If we allow impeachment to become more of a blatant political weapon, then that will only further undermine the integrity of our political system.

I doubt impeachment would be about the words spoken. More likely, considering a good chuck of the Dem caucus is made of lawyers, they would find something, such as the trust issue, and use that.
Also, the last two uses of impeachment were blatantly political, so its not like this is new. And, from both times, the parties faced severe backlash, in elections and approval ratings. That's why so many are afraid to touch it, it could destroy them. Its unlikely to be widely used, and even then, I doubt impeachment is actually used by the Dems, as its just too risky.

That's why I would hope impeachment does not become the tool utilized here. Calling Trump a traitor and demanding his impeachment are over the line in my view, just because of the wrong and misguided language he used at the conference. I would rather any impeachment, if it does happen, derive from the evidence and the charges generated by the Mueller investigation.

This senate race in Texas is still a toss-up since according to a recent poll released last month indicates that 44 % of Texans approve Trump's job performance while only 47 % approve.

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/donald-trump-approval-june-2018

[UWS]

Cruz counters Beto's proposed 6 debates with 5. Which sounds great, except that they're all scheduled for Friday nights and the proposal is "all inclusive and final."

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/07/25/ted-cruz-proposes-five-debates-beto-orourke-texas/

I don't know. Most people are out on Friday nights and, unless they are political junkies, won't stay home to watch a senate debate.

Which is why Cruz is proposing it.

Why not one debate during a week-end and then the other 4 debates set during the week (from a Monday to a Thursday), for example? That way, people will surely be at home to watch debates.

The only reason why Cruz wants it to be on Friday is because he's afraid that people learn more about his record.

[UWS]

Cook Political Report moves Cruz-O'Rourke Senate race to 'lean Republican'

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/400258-cook-political-report-moves-texas-senate-race-from-likely

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20kbH_LRgZc

RCP has already rated Texas as Lean R, so maybe in their case they could now rate it as toss-up.

[UWS]

People have been underestimating Beto this entire cycle. (Ex: Despite the tardiness of Cook and others, the race became Lean R at least a month ago. And Zaybay is quite right that it's moving swiftly towards a Tilt.) And they'll probably continue doing so through Election Day. Fine by me!

Just like we understimated Donald Trump during the 2016 election and never thought he could beat Hillary Clinton.

[UWS]

I think John Boehner was right to say that Ted Cruz is Lucifer in the flesh.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/04/28/politics/john-boehner-ted-cruz-lucifer-stanford/index.html

[UWS]

Well, putting aside the likelihood of it actually happening, the idea of Baker and Hogan being "mainstream Republicans" is laughable. A "mainstream Republican" is Steve King.

Wrong


The reason Trump won is because he had the most name recognition and most media attention. If Steve King ran instead of Trump , King would get destroyed.

Jeb bush? Lol

Marco Rubio

[UWS]

RCP has now rated the senate race in Texas as toss-up.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2018#Predictions

[UWS]

https://www.alternet.org/beto-orourke-rise-anti-cruz-billboards-featuring-trump-could-arrive-right-time