2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ucscgaldamez1]

Is DataOrbital right that Trump will win Arizona with the remaining vote? I was really hoping Biden would take AZ. If PA and AZ go for Trump, it's over.

[ucscgaldamez1]

How many ballots are outstanding in PA? Do we know?

[ucscgaldamez1]

If there were 600k votes but 400k in Maricopa, even if the 60-40 does not materialize, the remaining 200k may be some rural in there to put Trump over the top.

[ucscgaldamez1]

CNN reported that there were only 122k or so votes left to count in Philly if I heard it correctly.

[ucscgaldamez1]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324105713799569409?s=21
It is time:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Trump is going to win again

Of course Biden is favored to win, he's literally stealing the election now.

What will you say if Trump wins AZ, GA, and PA? I don't think you would say that Trump stole the election. Trump can still win all of these three.

[ucscgaldamez1]

I think we should always be open to people on all sides, even if they are at the extremes, like SN...

[ucscgaldamez1]

John KING Is awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ucscgaldamez1]

I thought Gwinnett,  GA was supposed to report their vote count today.  Is that not happening?

[ucscgaldamez1]

I was watching a report by NBC news report that essentially said that the reason why PA has not been called has to do with the provisional ballots. That what they are seeing is that they are similar to the results of those who voted on election day (I don't know what the % break down that is - 59 to 41% or so?) and that's the reason. If there are 115k outstanding provisional ballots and they would break down this way, that would net Trump around 21k, but he's already down close to 29k and going even higher...so maybe they just want all mail vote to come in and then make the call? But we also know from others (i.e. Erie county) that the margins of those who voted provisionally were somewhat resembling the up to date margins of those counties.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-06-trump-biden-election-results-n1246707/ncrd1246888#liveBlogHeader

[ucscgaldamez1]

Any possible way to get Collins to switch over to the Democratic party...?

[ucscgaldamez1]

?

[ucscgaldamez1]

GA just dropped

You mean Biden's margin dropped? What votes came in?

[ucscgaldamez1]

I'm praying for Trump. I realize that he lost the race and has to have the moral and mental strength to do what is right for our country. I want a fair and accurate count of the votes but once that is done I'd hope Trump accept what is right.

Thank you for that message.

[ucscgaldamez1]

Biden's lead over Trump in PA (raw totals) is currently at 43,194... Trump won PA in 2016 with 44,284. So Biden is about to pass that total. I'm sure that's going to piss Trump even more (not that it matters to us anyways).

[ucscgaldamez1]

327 Arizona votes, source unknown

Biden 55.2% / 44.8% Trump   

33+ votes to Biden

Biden leads 16,985

where did you see this from?

[ucscgaldamez1]

The last two small batch updates from PA had:

67 votes (Biden 10.3% / 89.7% Trump)
27 votes (Biden 24.0% / 76.0% Trump)

Trump would need close to 87% to overcome Biden, nearly impossible at this pt. But wondering where those small batches were from, hoping they were mainly very conservative areas reporting provisional ballots?

[ucscgaldamez1]

Do you guys know the outstanding ballots to be counted in AZ? Anyone has a breakdown of the remaining votes? I know about the 18k from Pima. But we don't really know the breakdown of those provisional votes, can they lean Trump, regardless of the +18 Biden margin win there? But I wouldn't think they would be enough to help Trump take over the lead.

[ucscgaldamez1]

Since it's a holiday, will Arizona report any votes today? I see Georgia reporting additional votes.

[ucscgaldamez1]

Do we have an idea of how many ballots nationwide are outstanding to count? 3-5 million or so?

California has about one million

[ucscgaldamez1]

Biden's national popular vote just ticked up to 50.9%.

What website do you use to track the popular vote total? It feels like CNN is behind.

Update: it is 50.9 @ CNN but still think other website have more recent updates.

[ucscgaldamez1]

Bragging rights for Romney if Trump falls below 47.15 (that's what Romney got in 2012, some sites have it at 47.2).

[ucscgaldamez1]

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbaumann/2020/11/18/alan-dershowitz-reveals-what-trump-team-legal-challenges-that-could-be-successful-n2580346

I would not be surprised that Dershowitz voted for Trump.

Liberal law professor Alan Dershowitz on Tuesday laid out the Trump campaign's legal strategy for winning the White House through a number of legal challenges. According to Dershowitz, the strategy is to pull electoral votes away from former Vice President Joe Biden.

"The clock is a double-edged sword in this election because if they don't have enough time but if they can put forward a sufficiently strong case then they may be able to get some Republican secretaries of states or legislatures to say, 'Look, we just don't have enough time to certify these electors' and if they can bring down the number of electors, 35 [to] 37, from the 305 and bring it down to 267 or 268 then the election goes to the House, where the Republicans win," he explained.

Dershowitz explained that the Trump Team's legal strategy is to pull enough electors away from Joe Biden that he doesn't meet the 270 threshold by the time the election needs to be certified. He also said there's no possible way for President Trump to get to 270 electoral votes in time.

"The goal is to prevent Biden from getting 270, that's why the clock is a double-edged sword," he said.

According to the Harvard professor, Bush v. Gore will be referenced if and when the Trump campaign's case makes its way to the Supreme Court. The reason: Trump's Team is focusing on the Equal Protection Clause. Their argument is that not all voters were treated equally because some had their ballots counted with an observer while others didn't. Some had rules set by other government officials and not the state legislatures, which the Supreme Court ruled against.

In order for these cases to make their way to the Supreme Court, Dershowitz said "the numbers have to be there," meaning the Trump Team successfully pulls electors away from Biden so the former vice president is no longer at the 270 threshold. The other option is for Trump's lawyers to provide "hard evidence" of irregularities occurring with voting machines, which could call into question hundreds of thousands of votes in various states.

"If that happens, then yes, it will go to the Supreme Court," Dershowitz said. "I think at least under the Constitutional challenge, the Article 2 challenge in Pennsylvania, they have a pretty good chance of winning."

[ucscgaldamez1]

The governor of GA still has to sign it. He hasn't said a word. He has until 5pm tomorrow, I believe.

[ucscgaldamez1]

Predictions?

Governor Kemp will refuse to certify and send it to the legislature to appoint the electors? This is getting crazy. Hope that's not the case.

[ucscgaldamez1]

With the Sec of State and Governor certifying the votes from GA, does this mean, absent Trump requesting the recount and the results being confirmed yet again that he lost, the electors will vote for Biden and there is nothing else the GA legislature can do since the vote has now been certified? I guess what I am asking in other words, is this a done deal in GA?