NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Doimper]

Miller at 100%. RIP blue wave

[Doimper]

WE GOT A DEMOCRAT. BLUE WAVE IMMINENT

[Doimper]

Not sure how this works.

One respondent 46% agreed and 54% disagreed. He's a nuanced man.

[Doimper]

SECOND DEMOCRAT INBOUND. One of them approves of Trump.

AND A THIRD, THE WAVE IS CRESTING

[Doimper]

Yeah Miller has probably got this.

Is this an official Bagel Projection?

[Doimper]

Yeah Miller has probably got this.

Is this an official Bagel Projection?

NO definitely not!! Also the response rate is absolutely pathetic.

Right, good call, wouldn't want anyone to not take Bagel Projections seriously.

[Doimper]

We finally got #9, and they're undecided. Lame.

[Doimper]

Could people stop overreacting? Not enough voters polled yet.

Could it maybe be that we're just joking and having fun with it?

Polls are serious business. Absolutely no fun allowed.

[Doimper]

It's time to cut WV loose, and wish our candidates luck. Love ya Manchin, but for the good of the party and country, let's redirect all the party efforts and resources planned for Manchin to help put McCaskill and maybe another one or two over the top.

LMAO.

Thinking we need to triage a Democratic Senate incumbent who's been comfortably leading in every poll taken because a Republican is leading an incomplete, unrelated house poll of 300 people by low single digits (and underperforming typical Republican performance in said district by 40 points) is Peak Bagel.

Never change.

For those who haven't figured out how this works yet, let me explain:

- Bagel craves attention and validation
- Bagel observes concern trolls receiving both of those things
- Bagel concern trolls

If you don't acknowledge him, he won't do it.

[Doimper]

Also, the last minute DUI revelation was the only reason 2000 was close.

Nah, it is because Al Gore started wearing earth tones and made his populist💓 pitch.

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/time/2000/08/28/fight.html

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LOLOLOLOL

[Doimper]

Because both the actual sample and target sample of 18-29 voters is so small, this probably doesn't have an enormous effect on the bottom lines of these polls.

But this demographic is consistently undersampled and unrepresentative, with terrible response rates leading to a lot of error that are essentially "false positives".

I'm not sure what the best solution to this is.  But an adequate solution CAN'T be to just give the tiny subsample you do get a lot more weight.

The best solution would be to oversample and weight accordingly, but polling firms operate on razor-thin profit margins as it is.

[Doimper]

I wonder how much this project is costing the NYT? It's got to be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, at least.