2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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Many of y'all appear to be forgetting the concept of the "Red Mirage".

PA, WI, and MI are the exact reverse of that, where once again DEM Cities in Swing States in the Midwest are the last to turn out the vote.

Keep Calm, don't panic, fundamental numbers look good in all three States (Plus we got AZ and NE-02 and possibly GA & NC as backups).

Work Swing Shift West Coast, so nowhere close to crash yet tonight.

Is NC not already gone?

NC is PROBABLY gone, but there's a not-insignificant chance that Biden pulls out a squeaker there. NYT's needle gives Trump an 86% chance at the moment.

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GA Update: Trump's margin down to 47,000.

Is there any chance Georgia might be called tonight? Or it might end up too close (whether it's for Trump or for Biden)?

If it's looking good for Trump, it won't be called.

If Biden even has a sniff, it will likely be called tonight.

You're sounding like a conspiracy theorist.

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If that update was the Fulton absentees, Trump wins.  If the Fulton absentees are still out, Biden wins. 

If I understood the Fulton press conference a minute ago, those votes weren't the Fulton absentee ballots — or certainly not all of them. Fulton just said to expect their result around midnight.

[musicblind]

If that update was the Fulton absentees, Trump wins.  If the Fulton absentees are still out, Biden wins. 

If I understood the Fulton press conference a minute ago, those votes weren't the Fulton absentee ballots — or certainly not all of them. Fulton just said to expect their result around midnight.

They were from Fulton but there still quite a bit left there

Thank you for the clarification.

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Teddy Roosevelt, right?

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Teddy Roosevelt, right?

Yes. Against whom...?

Alton Parker?

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On Predictit Trump chances shot up to 30c from 15

Free money, then. Why are they like this?

They're in a cult.

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From the perspective of a supporter of Trump, the past 24 hours could not have been more horrifying.

Most of them were expecting a quick victory, allowing them to get ample and sound sleep. Many of them did.

Then they woke to the news that Wisconsin flipped due to black people in Milwaukee voting fraud, and then the news that 1.5 million almost entirely Democratic mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania seemingly came from thin air. Then came the flip in Michigan, caused by black people in Detroit more fraud. News from Georgia and Arizona depressed their spirits further.

If Biden won a 413 landslide on election night, it would have been the equivalent of a shot to the head. But this drawn-out turn of events was death by a thousand cuts. It was definitely much worse than how Democrats felt in 2016.

Are you sure they even know he's losing? Given their propensity for misinformation, I figure they think he won and it's over — maybe even off celebrating somewhere

[musicblind]

From the perspective of a supporter of Trump, the past 24 hours could not have been more horrifying.

Most of them were expecting a quick victory, allowing them to get ample and sound sleep. Many of them did.

Then they woke to the news that Wisconsin flipped due to black people in Milwaukee voting fraud, and then the news that 1.5 million almost entirely Democratic mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania seemingly came from thin air. Then came the flip in Michigan, caused by black people in Detroit more fraud. News from Georgia and Arizona depressed their spirits further.

If Biden won a 413 landslide on election night, it would have been the equivalent of a shot to the head. But this drawn-out turn of events was death by a thousand cuts. It was definitely much worse than how Democrats felt in 2016.

Are you sure they even know he's losing? Given their propensity for misinformation, I figure they think he won and it's over — maybe even off celebrating somewhere

Nope. Go to Twitter. Don himself has been circulating rumours of votes being made up overnight, and vowing to defend himself. In Detroit, they were gathered outside the convention center chanting "stop the count". In Phoenix, they're chanting "count the votes".

Chanting two totally different things makes no sense? WTF.

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Anyone want to see a bunch of lunatics, watch CNN. Literally outside where they are counting the votes doing that chant. So stupid.

Oh wow, yeah, I just saw that. Holy ****

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So to sum this up:

- Biden wins NV (by an underwhelming margin, to the right of the nation)
- Biden wins AZ
- Biden wins GA very narrowly
- Trump probably wins NC very narrowly
- PA will go down to the wire, with Biden very slightly favored?
- Trump will win AK

Trump is pretty much toast.

Senate:

- Sullivan will win AK
- Tillis will win by a point or a little less in NC, outperforming Trump
- Collins has won in ME
- McSally is toast in AZ

Meaning the Senate will be 50R/48D when all is said and done, with the GA runoffs deciding Senate control.

Is this accurate? Curious about PA in particular.

From what I can gather, Biden is heavily favored in PA at this rate. At least, that's according to the Nates and other analysts.

I'm not sure Nate Silver has any credibility left. There are probably better people you could turn to for an understanding of the remaining vote.

Nate isn't a pollster, but from what information he had, he seems to have called this right, for the most part. Certainly well enough if it were a medical trial or something.

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Chris Cuomo & Don Lemon on CNN now, they might end up calling the election. LOL! That'll be great, these two banter way too much with each other.

I LOVE their banter!

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Should I be encouraged or discouraged by these Georgia numbers?

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CNN just announced that the Georgia SOS said there is 90k ballots left to count!

wait, so does this mean Biden only needs to win 33% of remaining ballots since his margin is -29k?

29,000/90,000 = .32222222

No, he needs to win them 59,500 - 30,500 (~66%) if he's making up a 29,000 margin.

What are the odds of that happening? Be brutally honest — no BS. Is it going to happen?

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Please God, let Biden win 306 EV.

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Biden has multiple opportunities here to clean up more EC votes well above 270.

Based on the mail-in ballot effect of scoring high votes in the last phase of vote-counting, he has

• NC - 75,000 deficit with 290,000 votes left to count. Biden needs 63.4%.
• GA - 23,000 deficit with 230,000 votes left to count. Biden needs 55.0%.
• PA - 165,000 deficit with 780,000 votes left to count. Biden needs 60.5%.

Will wait and see tomorrow how they come in.

We are no longer talking about whether Biden will win the election, rather, by how much.

Where are you seeing 230,000 votes in Georgia?

I thought someone else said 90,000?

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Civil War Doomer on CNN is based and correct, sadly.

I just heard that. Sometimes, I fear he's not wrong.

But I hope he's wrong.

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Are we getting any more of the Georgia vote tonight?

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Sorry to be annoying I've just woken up and can't see a good summary of the nights counting; what's the current situation?

Biden's getting closer and closer in Georgia and PA. It seems clear Biden will take PA, but it isn't clear whether or not he'll take Georgia. Trump is getting closer in Arizona, but it isn't clear whether or not he'll take Arizona.

Also, there is supposed to be an info dump in Arizona any minute now.

[musicblind]

Thanks everyone! I assumed both Arizona dumps would be done by the time I was awake but the delays seem to have impacted it; do we still not know how Arizona is going to go & how these late ballots are going?

The last dump was Trump +18.

Pure speculation: The next dump will be a good number for Trump, but after that, the rest will be good for Biden.

[musicblind]

90,000 ballots across the state of GA. SOS won't speak until the morning, as they counting furiously through the night.

Is 90,000 enough?

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You guys think Fox was premature in calling Arizona or do they know something we don't?

Premature, but they still have a chance of being right.

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Hmm, Trump probably had to outright win this batch if he really wanted to stay in the game...

Yep. I would call it now. CNN might do so soon.

Nah, CNN is bearish on calling anything. ANYTHING.

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Per CNN, 62K new Maricopa ballot count.

Biden: 912,585, 51%
Trump: 838,071, 47%

This is simply not good enough
this was also probably the last good batch for Trump

now mostly everthing that left is going to come from areas that of even more pro democrat like Pima County.

Yeah, Harry Enten was pretty clear that, in his opinion, this wasn't enough for Trump to take Arizona due to the outstanding vote.

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Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

Lower NC and NV, and raise GA and PA. I feel like Arizona is about right.