2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Meclazine for Israel]

If he wasn't Hitler in the bunker before, he is now.

And the Red Army is knocking on the door.

Hitler died alone. I was talking to someone yesterday who reminded me that the Trump situation is more like this. He said to me:

"One minute, you think you are on top of the world as President, next minute, you are in the back of a hay wagon on your way down to the guillotine."

16 October 1793

Execution of Marie Antoinette

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSoVRXOit-M

This is a better analogy as we can clearly see all of those Atlas Dem's in the crowd cheering.

[Meclazine for Israel]

A few minor updates including AZ and PA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 57,844 (88% counted)

Of the remaining ~405,700 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 174,100 of them - (42.9%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 3,486 (99% counted)

Of the remaining ~30,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 16,743 of them - (55.8%)

PA - Biden down by 52,286 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~382,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~220,100 of them - (57.6%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Trump made a bit of ground in Arizona, but in the next couple of GA updates, it will most likely show Biden in the lead.

Keep in mind that there are a lot of Pittsburgh mail-in votes still to come for PA that have their counting delayed.

Trump is trying to stop counting of votes in Philadelphia.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Update from PA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 56,833 (88% counted)

Of the remaining ~398,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 171,000 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 3,486 (99% counted)

Of the remaining ~30,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 16,743 of them - (55.8%)

PA - Biden down by 50,571 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~375,500 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~213,100 of them - (56.7%)

The ratios of late votes coming in are roughly:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  55.0%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  57.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  75.0%)

The last two clumps of PA votes just in were in Biden's favour 76%-24% and 68-32%, so the late PA vote estimate is reasonable.

Biden is chiseling the 50K lead in PA (Trump currently has) 5K votes at a time.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Updates from GA, AZ and PA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,257 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.2%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 2,497 (99% counted)

Of the remaining ~30,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 16,249 of them - (54.2%)

PA - Biden down by 48,854 (94.5% counted)

Of the remaining ~350,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~199,500 of them - (57.0%)

The ratios of late votes coming in are roughly:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  55.0%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  57.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  75.0%)

The last clump from GA was 9:1 in Biden's favour.

In AZ, Biden is slowly losing ground, but should hang on unless Trump gets some large numbers in his favour.

The required rate of only 57% in PA makes Biden an almost certainty if he keeps getting 75% of the incoming ballots.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Updates from GA and PA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,257 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.2%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 1,902 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~25,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 13,541 of them - (53.8%)

PA - Biden down by 42,142 (94.5% counted)

Of the remaining ~320,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~181,100 of them - (56.6%)

The ratios of late votes coming in are roughly:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  57.0%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  57.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  66.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  75.0%)

Latest GA dump was 79.4% Biden.

Latest PA dump was 72.4% Biden.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Updates from AZ, PA and GA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.1%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 1,775 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~24,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 12,888 of them - (53.7%)

PA - Biden down by 36,572 (94.6% counted)

Of the remaining ~310,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~173,300 of them - (55.9%)

The ratios of late votes coming in are roughly:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  57.0%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  57.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  68.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  74.0%)

Latest PA arrivals favoured Biden 67.5% and 79.7% respectively.

Latest AZ arrival favoured Biden 67.2%.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Updates from AZ, PA and GA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 665 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~21,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 10,833 of them - (51.6%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~270,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

[Meclazine for Israel]

As requested, now including NC, AK. I took them out because they never change. The staff have taken annual leave at the NV and AK offices for some reason. (they only had one job on one day of the year)

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 665 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~21,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 10,833 of them - (51.6%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~270,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

AK - Biden down by 51,382 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~93,500 of them - (69.0%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~287,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~182,000 of them - (63.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

[Meclazine for Israel]

Update from GA only.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 463 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~20,700 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 10,582 of them - (51.1%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~270,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

AK - Biden down by 51,382 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~93,500 of them - (69.0%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~287,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~182,000 of them - (63.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

[Meclazine for Israel]

Update from GA only.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 463 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~20,700 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 10,582 of them - (51.1%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~270,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

AK - Biden down by 51,382 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~93,500 of them - (69.0%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~287,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~182,000 of them - (63.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

I’m sorry to be kinda dumb but what’s the difference in your red and green coloring?

Sorry, sorry.  I feel like I’m going to look so stupid asking that.....

Green Big Numbers are where Biden is ahead in current voting. Biden is currently UP.

Red Big Numbers are where Biden is behind in current voting. Biden is currently DOWN.

Green on the right in small writing is most likely going to end with a Biden win (green number will represent a 'come-from-behind' when the large number is red).

That is based on Biden currently exceeding the required rate to catch up to Trump and pass him.

Red on the right in small writing is where I don't think Biden can do it. Alaska.

North Carolina - I don't know yet.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Lookin' like you are tripping a bit Man.

If he is from Oregon, he is now legally allowed to trip on Magic Mushrooms and watch all the double rainbows he wants.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Biden hits the front in Georgia.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden up by 917 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~19,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 9,042 of them - (47.6%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~175,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

AK - Biden down by 51,382 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~93,500 of them - (69.0%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~287,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~182,000 of them - (63.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  65%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Sportsbet.com.au called Biden yesterday, but I am calling it now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Nobody should be popping champagne for Georgia just yet, but in the very likely case of an extremely-slim margin either way, here's the laws surrounding recounts in the state:

Recount Laws/Guidelines (GA)

There are no automatic recount provisions for the state of Georgia.  Under Georgia law, recounts may be requested under the following conditions:

-  If the margin between candidates is less than or equal to 0.5%, a candidate may request a recount within two business days following the certification of results.  

-  An election official may order, at his or her discretion, a recount if it appears there is a discrepancy or error in the returns. In precincts using paper or scanned ballots, any candidate or political party may petition the election official to make such an order. In precincts using voting machines, any three electors of the precinct may do the same.

-  For constitutional amendments and binding referendum questions, the Constitutional Amendment Publication Board may, at its discretion, request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% within two business days following the certification of results.

-  The Secretary of State may request a recount at his or her discretion if a candidate for federal or state office petitions the office regarding an apparent discrepancy or error in the returns.

Source: "Recount Laws in Georgia".  Ballotpedia.  https://ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Georgia

**Oh, and just for those wondering:  0.5% of an estimated 4,960,000 is around 23,000 votes. 

Wet blanket party pooper.

[Meclazine for Israel]

this is actually getting atrocious.  there is no excuse for places like Nevada to not count more timely.  and really there's no excuse to not call Nevada at this point.

yeah the fact that all NV could do is count like 8K votes all day... come on man

I agree with this. NV has been borderline appalling. AK and NC I don't know enough to comment, but could be the same.

Just from a basic functional perspective, some of these states have known the election was coming for months, and soon as it did and the votes came in, they basically stopped work.

It's like employing someone and on the first day they apply for annual leave.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Now the question is, how many ballots are still out in AZ after today?

171K

You are going to have to buy a white Pontiac Trans-Am now to celebrate your prophetic signature.

[Meclazine for Israel]

"The elections chair in Erie County, Pa., said about 1,500 provisional ballots were cast there, and they’ve been about evenly split Trump-Biden. Biden’s lead will change little."-Trip Gabriel, NYT

What is a provisional ballot?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Biden +9,160 in GA, as DDHQ

What is the recount limit in Georgia?

Isn't the recount a limit of 0.5% rather than an actual numerical value.

[Meclazine for Israel]

While I do appreciate and enjoy the spectacle of people celebrating in the urban centers of this country, I'm also hoping that folks remember we are still in the middle of a public health crisis.  

If going out and celebrating:  have a good time, be happy, but please please be safe, guys and girls.  

I was also just thinking that, but they have masks on (or at least 80%).

Regardless, in 1-2 weeks time, there is no question we are heading for a new peak daily number in cases because of these celebrations.

[Meclazine for Israel]

President Biden:

"I will spare no effort in fighting this Coronavirus pandemic"

Thousands of Americans watching outside in large crowds cheer loudly spewing droplets of COVID-19 infection from their nasal cavity over each other.

Philadelphia is about to have another 1918 moment in 7-10 days time.

Apart from my impertinence, I cannot disagree with Joe Biden on his attempts to reunite the USA as Americans.

Very good speech.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The drones....

....with Tina Turner.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The BBC's liveblog has just posted a - probably incomplete - list of world leaders who haven't congratulated Biden so far:


Mexico: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador

North Korea: Kim Jong-un

Russia: Vladimir Putin

Saudi Arabia: Salman

China: Xi Jinping

Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro

Hungary: Viktor Orban


So, did all congratulations Biden has received so far come from non-dictators?

Throw Iran and Libya on there as well for effect.