COVID-19 Mega thread

[Meclazine for Israel]

More people died from the normal flu during the SARS epidemic than from SARS.

This agent is even lower in mortality rates.

Although new, it is a biological non-event in the 'pandemic' science fiction movie that the Chinese are worrying about.

Although it is inevitable we will get some nasty spread of biological agents with a much higher mortality rate, this is not the one.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Chinese are trying to pin 11 million people in Wuhan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmgPVhubmQA

Crazy that they are building a hospital within 5 days.

In Perth, Western Australia, our new hospital took 2-3 years to build.

Good luck to them. I hope they get better and the panic stops.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Update from the Doc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO8QWq1K1_c

Just a new version of the flu in reality. Not dissimilar to SARS.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Some of us have grandparents who survived both World Wars.

He we are complaining about surviving Swine Flu and Coronavirus. Perspective, please.

The mass hysteria is once again why the MSM can’t be trusted.

Total agreement.

Media hysteria on this story will end in two weeks when it becomes old news.

50,000,000 people died from the Spanish Flu in 1918.
8,200 people died from Influenza in the USA in 2019.  
420 people died from Influenza in Australia in 2019.

650 people died from SARS in China and Hong Kong 2003.
449 people died from MERS in the Middle East in 2013.
56 people have died from the 2020 Coronavirus.

It's called perspective.

No one died from SARS or MERS in the USA in the last two outbreaks.

Disproportionate media response is extremely common. We appear to have these gigantic media lights with nothing to shine them on.

The media hysteria will end when everyone is comfortable it is similar to the common flu born from a bat, snake or monkey that only kills elderly patients with a poor immune response.

Great example of where the media spreads a news story using fear of the unknown. Once people's fear subsides, the media will not play the story.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The actual case fatality rate is far lower, as there is a large population of people who are infected and become sick, but not sick enough to go to the hospital. The difficulties of quantifying the number of non-diagnosed cases makes it difficult to calculate exactly what it is at this time, but it is far below 100%.

Mortality rate of SARS for presented cases was between 11-15%.

For the actual percentage, including people infected who did not show up, you are looking at 3-4% at best.

As with Influenza, most people who died from the disease were aged over 65. Least likely to die are people under 24.

This looks like a repeat 'dose' of a similar style outbreak.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Perhaps a mortality rate of over 100% should make you question the source of your numbers.

That is caused by people who died from other causes ( murder, disease, accident, heart attack ) whilst shipping relatives infected with the Corona Virus to the hospital.

They need to be included as well.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australia to isolate members of our community trapped in Wuhan.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/government-to-evacuate-australians-from-hubei/11909090

Off to the Indian Ocean retreat of Christmas Island.

[Meclazine for Israel]

In the past day 47 recovered and 25 died, the CFR for this period dropped to 35%.

Case #s continue to be unreliable due to a shortage of testing equipment.

A decent article here-- https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/26/2019-ncov-china-epidemic-pandemic-the-wuhan-coronavirus-a-tentative-clinical-profile/

You are forgetting the 900 other people who never got recorded in the system, never showed up to hospital, and who have fully recovered.

When my family or girlfriend get the flu, I don't. Some people just nail this stuff due to fitness age, or strong immunity.

For healthy adults, this is just like a mild flu, so they won't show many symptons, or at the very least, symptoms which would warrant a medical visit.

Hence, that is why the fatality rate is only 3% at this stage. You are not using the correct population numbers in your biological analysis.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Nothing in Africa or South America yet.

Very similar spread to SARS in many ways.

https://www.geographyrealm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/coronavirus-map.png

[Meclazine for Israel]

It feels like this is the megavirus that could kill millions.

Not with a low infection rate and low mortality rate of 2%, it wont.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Coronavirus cases: 7,900 => 170 deaths. (Beet, this is for you - CFR = 2.4%)

In the 2018/19 season, Flu cases: 43 Million => 61,200 deaths.

We need to put this in perspective. No one outside China has died yet. The pandemic is mainly in people's minds from hysteria created by the media.

For SARS, no one in Australia or the USA died. This is not the biblical disease to cleanse the sinners from the Earth.

Meanwhile, Australia will take Australian citizens (mainly Chinese born) out of Wuhan for a fee of $1,000 and house them in the offshore detention centre at Christmas Island.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-30/wuhan-coronavirus-australian-families-christmas-island/11913304

Takers from Wuhan so far: ZERO.

So the virus must not be that bad on the ground. It's like a strong version of the flu mainly affecting the elderly and people with weak immune systems.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australian scientists have had success replicating the virus in a laboratory.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/wuhan-coronavirus-created-in-australian-lab-outside-of-china/11906390

Australian scientists are now busy looking at cures for the Coronavirus.


Australian scientists investigating cures for the Coronavirus.

[Meclazine for Israel]

the Death:Recovery ratio of 81:52 approximately four days ago, according to JHU about 91 have died and 81 recovered, the CFR is about 53%.

Beet, please type "Coronavirus Mortality Rate" into Google.

I am trying to save Dave Leip some costs on his monthly MySQL server costs.

The internet is running out of space.

[Meclazine for Israel]

This thing has been blown 10,000 X out of proportion by the media.

The number of deaths is 213.

The number of cases is 10,000.

Can people now see where 2.13% comes from before I blow a woofle valve.

The number of social media and forum posts with no intellectual or scientific basis is 12,800,000,000

It's more damaging as a digital pandemic on people's mind to be honest.

[Meclazine for Israel]

So far outside of China, there are currently 0 foreign deaths but 130 cases.
This makes me believe one of these two scenarios is occurring.
1. The mortality rate is greatly overinflated due to the fact that China can’t properly screen patients with mild symptoms/they aren’t showing up to hospitals.
2. The disease takes a while to become severe, but eventually does get progressively worse.

I hope 1 is the case, but we may have to wait and see (as sh**tty as it is)

Despite having a mortality rate of 9%, the only victims of SARS were from China and Hong Kong.

No deaths in the Western World.

This appears very similar, but the mortality rate is around 2%.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The number of social media and forum posts with no intellectual or scientific basis is 12,800,000,001

[Meclazine for Israel]

It hurts me to say it, but we need to shut down travel and trade to China.  This hurts me economically.   I have investments in companies that need parts from China, and I am stuck with those investments due to the tax laws.   Roku is one of those companies, which receives parts from a Chinese company called TCL.    

I think the important ongoing issue with the coronavirus is that China will not let us bring CDC workers into their country to help contain the virus.  They have denied our requests.  

Just a tidbit.  Go to 1 minute in the video.  This is how the plague spread into Europe.  It went along the silk road.  Avenues of trade are always great pathways for a virus.  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTn6YIwybwM

Sell your Roku shares. It's a crap product. I got given it for free because Telstra Australia were giving them away, and i am just going to throw it in the bin. It was painful.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Saturday 1 Feb 2020

Cases: 11,791

Deaths: 259

Mortality Rate: 2.19%

[Meclazine for Israel]

With SARS, the fatality rate reported in China was 6.6%

However, in other countries that had more than 100 cases, the fatality rates were:

Hong Kong 17.0%
Taiwan 10.7%
Canada 17.1%
Singapore 13.9%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome

All of those are considerably higher than the fatality rated reported by China for its cases.

The analysis of the Chinese stats for SARS vs the ROTW was interesting. Nice work.

There is definitely a variation which is occuring geographically, but at this stage, you just use the numbers you have and see which way it goes. So far, it has been low 2% overall.



Sunday 2 Feb 2020

Cases: 14,559
Sex: 71% Male
Median Age: 57

Deaths: 305

Mortality Rate: 2.09%

Mortality Rate in Wuhan : 5.5%
Mortality Rate in Hubei Province: 1.0%
Mortality Rate in Rest of China: 0.3%

[Meclazine for Israel]

Monday 3 Feb 2020

Cases: 17,387
99.6% of today's new cases were in China (2,825)

Deaths: 362

Mortality Rate: 2.08%

Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

Mortality rate of the Corona-virus is around 50 people per day.
For normal seasonal flu, the mortality rate is around 1,200 per day.

It also appears that this has been well and truly isolated now within Chinese Hubei province.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Tuesday 4 Feb 2020

Cases: 20,626
99.8% of today's new cases were located in China (2,463)

Deaths: 426

Mortality Rate: 2.07%

Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

Given that only 0.2% of the new cases are outside China, it would appear that the response in the West has been more than sufficient at containing this virus.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Wednesday 5 Feb 2020

Cases: 23,875
99.2% of today's new cases were located in China (3,221)

Deaths: 493

Mortality Rate: 2.06%

Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

2,788 patients critical in China. 2 people in Italy are critical. 1 person in France is critical.

Graph from Tuesday 4 Feb 2020



The orange line is staying put at 2% of the blue line i.e. the initial Mortality Rate.

The vast majority of the new virus cases are in Hubei province, so whilst the disease does propagate readily amongst it's hosts, it appears that nearly all of the contagion is within the Chinese population in Hubei province.

Nearly all of the foreign cases are Chinese nationals who contracted the virus in Wuhan.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Death rate.

3 days ago 304 died, 335 recovered. Currently 492 died, 906 recovered. The case fatality rate of the past 3 days has dropped to 25%.

More fantasy than Donald Trump's State of the Nation speech.

If Nancy Pelosi read your post, she would rip it up.

That is simply not how the calculation is made.

Nowhere outside the Atlas forums would anyone with any scientific credentials express the CFR ~ 25-35%.

https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-outbreak-as-bad-as-sars.html

"As with the 2009 pandemic, initial reports from Wuhan described small numbers of both deaths and cases. On January 20, there were six deaths out of 282 confirmed cases. By January 28, there were 106 deaths from about 4,500 confirmed cases.

These numbers taken alone suggest a case fatality rate of around 2%, very high for a respiratory virus. But the true number of infected individuals circulating in the population is not known and is likely to be much higher than 4,500. There may be 50,000 or 100,000 additional cases in Wuhan that have gone undetected, and, if this is the case, it would put the case fatality of 2019-nCoV infections in the range of 0.1% to 0.2%."

2% is exactly the CFR number that the data above suggests. As time progresses, this will change slightly towards a lower value.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Thursday 6 Feb 2020

Cases: 27,664
99.5% of today's new cases were located in China (3,098)

Deaths: 564

Mortality Rate: 2.04%

Wednesday (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

Graph from Wednesday 6 Feb 2020



Looks to be solely a China-centric virus. Excellent quarantine procedures outside China.

17 new international cases yesterday. 17 international recoveries yesterday. Net increase = 0.

Total US cases = 12 (out of 27,664).

[Meclazine for Israel]

Looks to be solely a China-centric virus. Excellent quarantine procedures outside China

You can't really conclude that for a few reasons:

1) Because that is not how exponential growth works.
2) Because if there are more cases internationally, they are less likely to be immediately detected, because screening in many countries (for example the USA) is only limited to people who have been to China recently (or in some cases to Wuhan recently, depending on country).

Excellent analysis as always. I am limiting my analysis and opinions until I see a mathematical fit to the curves.

The key stage now that I am working on is putting together an interpretable dataset which makes sense. Don't rely on the media for any reasonable analysis.



The case graph is not exponential just yet. It is trending towards a flat line on a logarithmic plot.

And you are right in this and your previous analysis on the 'missing' unreported cases. Once that is added to the dataset, then the mortality rate decreases significantly. It really depends on the "undetected" rate.

6 Feb Thursday 2.04%
5 Feb Wednesday (2.06%)
4 Feb Tuesday (2.07%)
3 Feb Monday (2.08%)
2 Feb Sunday (2.09%)
1 Feb Saturday (2.17%)
31 Jan Friday (2.13%)

The mortality rate shows a time based relationship that is holding up.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I'm a little uninformed on this. Does anyone know the fatality rate? Age a factor? Etc.

Yes.

71% of cases are male.
75% of all fatalities have been in Wuhan.

Fatality rate of active cases:

Wuhan 4.9%
Hubei Province: 3.1%
Rest of China 0.16%
Rest of the World: Not enough population stats to form a meaningful number.

Average age of victims is 57.

It would appear that this virus does not kill the victim. It simply weakens the immune system dramatically when it gets into the lungs, whereby vulnerable people are then susceptible to viral pneumonia. People of old age, diabetes, weakened immune response etc.

Growth rate of international cases yesterday was zero. The number of people who recovered (17) matched the number of new cases (17).

But Hubei province in China had over 3,000 new cases.