COVID-19 Mega thread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Comparing the Coronavirus to ebola really isn't fair. Ebola is contagious only through an exchange of bodily fluids. The hysteria behind it back in 2014 was embarrassingly hyperbolic in reality. The fact that ebola also factored into the 2014 midterms, which in hindsight were probably some of the most consequential elections this century, really infuriates me. I wish ebola on every Republican Senator who won that year.

[Technocracy Timmy]

China once again proving why they will never rival glorious nation of Japan.

[Crumpets]

Okay, tin foil hat conspiracy time. A friend of mine who, while not necessarily a "China expert," probably knows more about China that 99% of non-Chinese people and has spent extensive time there, floated this possibility: The virus originated from the bioweapon lab in Wuhan BUT was not an agent intended to kill significant amounts of people. Rather, it was specifically designed to have a high transmission rate and low mortality rate in order to track and model its spread overtime, so that China can improve its development of the actually lethal stuff for later use.

As I said, conspiracy theory, but I'M JUST ASKING QUESTIONS.

[Cinemark]

Okay, tin foil hat conspiracy time. A friend of mine who, while not necessarily a "China expert," probably knows more about China that 99% of non-Chinese people and has spent extensive time there, floated this possibility: The virus originated from the bioweapon lab in Wuhan BUT was not an agent intended to kill significant amounts of people. Rather, it was specifically designed to have a high transmission rate and low mortality rate in order to track and model its spread overtime, so that China can improve its development of the actually lethal stuff for later use.

As I said, conspiracy theory, but I'M JUST ASKING QUESTIONS.

China is going to lose hundreds of billions of dollars and multiple percentages of growth off their economy because of this. I really doubt your friends conspiracy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Villages and cities in China have resorted to flying drones with speakers to patrol streets and scold people not wearing masks in public amid the coronavirus outbreak, according to Chinese state media.

Both Xinhua and the Global Times have published videos of drones warning various people in rural areas that masks need to be worn in “these times." The drones were seen scolding an elderly lady and chasing a child down the road.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-01-20-intl-hnk/index.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/WCVB/status/1223662947500732417

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1223659708072038400

[Cinemark]

^
Apparently the woman in Germany who spread the illness to two factory workers was taking fever reducing medication at the time. So, god willing, the worry about asymptomatic spread might be overblown.

Edit: I dont want to say it is overblown though. Just that its not a conspiracy to keep the populace calm.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Hopefully asymptomatic transmission is indeed less of a worry than feared. There have been a number of other reports of it other than the German case, however.

Meanwhile, it has spread from Japan to Korea. So if that continues, travel bans based on someone being Chinese or coming from China will be increasingly ineffective:

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1223710044618993665

And it seems to be spreading more outside of China in various places (including Germany and Thailand):

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1223710053489938437

[Beet]

3 days ago 170 died and 124 recovered. Today 304 died and 335 recovered. Case Fatality Rate in the past 3 days has dropped to 39%. It would be relevant to see the difference between those who have treatment and those who did not have treatment. While there is speculation that many mild cases are not being reported and this is almost certainly true, cases that are tested and reported are more likely to have gotten treatment.

Meanwhile, there number of cases in the city of Huanggang (outside of Wuhan) has increased by 600% in just one day, and residents are no longer allowed to leave home. Meanwhile, a city in Eastern China (far from Hubei Province) has over 200 confirmed cases. This could indicate the geographical spread of the virus.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The number of social media and forum posts with no intellectual or scientific basis is 12,800,000,001

[Hollywood]

It hurts me to say it, but we need to shut down travel and trade to China.  This hurts me economically.   I have investments in companies that need parts from China, and I am stuck with those investments due to the tax laws.   Roku is one of those companies, which receives parts from a Chinese company called TCL.    

I think the important ongoing issue with the coronavirus is that China will not let us bring CDC workers into their country to help contain the virus.  They have denied our requests.  

Just a tidbit.  Go to 1 minute in the video.  This is how the plague spread into Europe.  It went along the silk road.  Avenues of trade are always great pathways for a virus.  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTn6YIwybwM

[Beet]

NY Times correspondent Amy Qin got inside Wuhan. Good thread here:

https://twitter.com/amyyqin/status/1223279662127706113

Also, Christianity doing good:

SALT LAKE CITY — President Russell M. Nelson’s 40-year-old professional ties to China are facilitating a donation of supplies from The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints that will help Chinese health care workers in their effort to contain the coronavirus outbreak.

The church loaded 220,000 particulate respirator masks, more than 6,500 pairs of protective hospital coveralls and 870 pairs of protective goggles at two bishop’s central storehouses in Salt Lake City and Atlanta on Wednesday morning.

https://www.deseret.com/faith/2020/1/29/21113386/coronavirus-china-outbreak-lds-church-mormon-russell-nelson-donation-chinese-health-wuhan

[Meclazine for Israel]

It hurts me to say it, but we need to shut down travel and trade to China.  This hurts me economically.   I have investments in companies that need parts from China, and I am stuck with those investments due to the tax laws.   Roku is one of those companies, which receives parts from a Chinese company called TCL.    

I think the important ongoing issue with the coronavirus is that China will not let us bring CDC workers into their country to help contain the virus.  They have denied our requests.  

Just a tidbit.  Go to 1 minute in the video.  This is how the plague spread into Europe.  It went along the silk road.  Avenues of trade are always great pathways for a virus.  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTn6YIwybwM

Sell your Roku shares. It's a crap product. I got given it for free because Telstra Australia were giving them away, and i am just going to throw it in the bin. It was painful.

[Beet]

It hurts me to say it, but we need to shut down travel and trade to China.  This hurts me economically.   I have investments in companies that need parts from China, and I am stuck with those investments due to the tax laws.   Roku is one of those companies, which receives parts from a Chinese company called TCL.    

I think the important ongoing issue with the coronavirus is that China will not let us bring CDC workers into their country to help contain the virus.  They have denied our requests.  

Just a tidbit.  Go to 1 minute in the video.  This is how the plague spread into Europe.  It went along the silk road.  Avenues of trade are always great pathways for a virus.  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTn6YIwybwM

Sell your Roku shares. It's a crap product. I got given it for free because Telstra Australia were giving them away, and i am just going to throw it in the bin. It was painful.

I believe China did allow the CDC into the country.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/30/china-asks-cdc-help-investigate-wuhan-virus/

[Joe Republic]

Remember when Trump attacked Obama for not shutting down flights from West Africa over Ebola?
Where the **** is he now?

Take a wild guess.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/525495434928988160?s=20

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1223640662689689602?s=20

[dead0man]

Okay, tin foil hat conspiracy time. A friend of mine who, while not necessarily a "China expert," probably knows more about China that 99% of non-Chinese people and has spent extensive time there, floated this possibility: The virus originated from the bioweapon lab in Wuhan BUT was not an agent intended to kill significant amounts of people. Rather, it was specifically designed to have a high transmission rate and low mortality rate in order to track and model its spread overtime, so that China can improve its development of the actually lethal stuff for later use.

As I said, conspiracy theory, but I'M JUST ASKING QUESTIONS.

China is going to lose hundreds of billions of dollars and multiple percentages of growth off their economy because of this. I really doubt your friends conspiracy.

he may have left out part of the conspiracy, that it was an accident

[Hollywood]

It hurts me to say it, but we need to shut down travel and trade to China.  This hurts me economically.   I have investments in companies that need parts from China, and I am stuck with those investments due to the tax laws.   Roku is one of those companies, which receives parts from a Chinese company called TCL.    

I think the important ongoing issue with the coronavirus is that China will not let us bring CDC workers into their country to help contain the virus.  They have denied our requests.  

Just a tidbit.  Go to 1 minute in the video.  This is how the plague spread into Europe.  It went along the silk road.  Avenues of trade are always great pathways for a virus.  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTn6YIwybwM

Sell your Roku shares. It's a crap product. I got given it for free because Telstra Australia were giving them away, and i am just going to throw it in the bin. It was painful.

This is so off-topic, so I'd like speaking with you in private if you want to continue.  I bought it at $20. Greatest investment of my lifetime.  Sold a third of it at $156 to reinvest in Snap at $14 and Pinterest at $17.  Roku is a nice platform for streaming, but the cable companies are starting to step on it's D right now.  Thought it would go to $200 at one point.  Don't know where you stood when you were given those shares, but would like to know. I'm thinking the same way as you at the moment, but I've made a 600 to 700% profit.  

But listen up everyone.  If you didn't make money in the last three years off the stock market, I really feel sorry for you.  You can't let politics get in the way of money.  Except when it comes to the coronavirus.  I will lose money if the US shuts down travel with China, but I can live with it. It's all alright.  

I laughed at first when yet again we were told of another "swine" or "anything" flu was being promoted by the media, because I often feel like these trendy diseases are overblown.  This is serious.  This is beyond politics.  If you want to find a good information, I am a member of a meteorology blog called wunderground.com, which I will cite below.  I know.  It's a different science.  But there is alot of good information about the coronavirus, especially since we are currently not in the Atlantic Hurricance  season. Just keep reloading the comment section.  Perhaps even this forum can cross promote. 
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/UK-Met-Office-Year-15C-Global-Warming-Possible-2025?cm_ven=cat6-widget

[Florida Man for Crime]

Uh-oh, the first person to die of this virus outside of China was 44 years old (just passed away in the Philippines). Not super young to be sure, but not suggestive that only old people are at risk.

https://twitter.com/WHOPhilippines/status/1223797298477424641

[Cinemark]

^
I think its important to note that the man also had Influenza B and Strep. This wasnt just a healthy middle aged man who went to the hospital and never came out. He was very sick.

[Joe Republic]

Sell your Roku shares. It's a crap product. I got given it for free because Telstra Australia were giving them away, and i am just going to throw it in the bin. It was painful.

"I don't like something so therefore nobody does."

Their share price has increased over 600% since their IPO.


(Pardon the threadjack, but this guy already pollutes threads with irrelevant nonsense, so...)

[It’s so Joever]

We are screwed. This will make swine flu look like nothing. I am really concerned now. At best, only ~100,000 mostly old people die. At worst this is the Spanish flu of the century.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Saturday 1 Feb 2020

Cases: 11,791

Deaths: 259

Mortality Rate: 2.19%

[It’s so Joever]

Saturday 1 Feb 2020

Cases: 11,791

Deaths: 259

Mortality Rate: 2.19%

Although I generally agree that the mortality rate is probably around 2-3%, keep in mind many of the infected will take time to die if they do, so these measurements aren’t exactly accurate right now.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Saturday 1 Feb 2020

Cases: 11,791

Deaths: 259

Mortality Rate: 2.19%

Some things that could change that mortality rate:

Things that could lower it:

1) Those are just confirmed cases, but Actual cases are pretty much definitely higher if for no reason that there are not enough testing kits, and possibly quite a bit higher. Moreover, some unknown percentage of people are only mildly ill and may not even realize they have it. If so, that lowers the mortality rate, possibly even by an order of magnitude (let's hope so).


Things that could raise it:

1) Most of the cases have not finished their disease progression. Simply put, for patients who will die, it takes time for them to die. Moreover, the average case is biased towards people who were more recently diagnosed, because the overall # of cases has been growing exponentially.

2) It is my understanding that in China, when people die with multiple medical issues involved, they are (apparently) typically recorded as dying of the "final" cause rather than the underlying condition. For example, someone who has the flu but dies of a heart attack would get recorded typically as having died of a heart attack rather than having died of the flu. If doctors in China are recording cause of death in this way, then in reality more people in China are probably dying of the 2019-nCoV than the statistics indicate, and possibly quite a few more.

Unfortunately, there is some precedent for this (seemingly) being a problem...

With SARS, the fatality rate reported in China was 6.6%

However, in other countries that had more than 100 cases, the fatality rates were:

Hong Kong 17.0%
Taiwan 10.7%
Canada 17.1%
Singapore 13.9%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome

All of those are considerably higher than the fatality rated reported by China for its cases. It is pretty statistically unlikely that a difference as big as that could have arisen from chance, and it suggests that the Chinese statistics were under-counting relative to the statistics in other countries - probably because of this issue of how cause of death is reported.

So that raises the question, are the Chinese statistics for Coronavirus 2019-nCoV similarly under-reported as compared to what we will see in other countries for that reason? That is probably my biggest worry at the moment.

The other thing is that if/when Hospitals get overwhelmed, not everyone who needs to go in the ICU will be able to, so the standard of care goes down, leading to more deaths potentially if it turns into an all-out pandemic infecting millions/billions.