2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/DrPaulGosar/status/1324028306916700161?s=19

What margin is he looking at.

Simply not true. A good chunk of that is Maricopa.

[Dr. Arch]

I didn't stay up for the Milwaukee dump. What was the margin?

Was it as glorious as 2018?

Bigger. Biden is almost at 70% in the county.

[Dr. Arch]

Wisconsin has been called for Joe Biden!

[Dr. Arch]

Why does CNN have stripes on WI on its map? Because Trump is asking for a recount?

It means flip.

[Dr. Arch]

PA is not a done deal yet.

I have just looked at the figures.

1.067 million postal ballots are left to count (they broke 78-21 Biden so far).

Biden gains a net 608.000 votes from those.

Trump is currently ahead by 440.000

So far, so good.

Biden wins by 168.000 in the end.

But 8% of PAs 8000+ Election Day precincts are also not counted yet.

Those account for an additional 338.000 votes.

Election Day votes went 66-33 Trump so far.

Trump nets 111.000 votes from those.

Biden still comes out 57.000 ahead, but there’s room for bigger movement.

Trump is ahead by less than 400K right now, not 440K.

[Dr. Arch]

PA is not a done deal yet.

I have just looked at the figures.

1.067 million postal ballots are left to count (they broke 78-21 Biden so far).

Biden gains a net 608.000 votes from those.

Trump is currently ahead by 440.000

So far, so good.

Biden wins by 168.000 in the end.

But 8% of PAs 8000+ Election Day precincts are also not counted yet.

Those account for an additional 338.000 votes.

Election Day votes went 66-33 Trump so far.

Trump nets 111.000 votes from those.

Biden still comes out 57.000 ahead, but there’s room for bigger movement.

Trump is ahead by less than 400K right now, not 440K.

Yes, but there are also less than 1 million postal ballots left now.

One goes hand in hand with the other.

There are over 1.3M postal ballots left. Can you check your facts before posting? That's 2/2 misstatements. We really don't need this.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump+5.9 in PA now, with just early votes from outside the Dem areas coming in.

[Dr. Arch]

I mean, Biden may very well win the Presidency, and I'm happy for that, but the down ballot losses are really irking me.

Gideon, J. Cunningham, Finkenauer, and DMP losing really stung.

Not nearly as bad as Feingold in 2016. That was the worst.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump is now under 50% in GA. Lots of ATL and other metro areas outstanding.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump under 51% in PA now.

[Dr. Arch]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

[Dr. Arch]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

Around this. It depends on margins.

[Dr. Arch]

A little more of GA came in. Trump is now down to 49.6% (+26K votes). GA is still at 95% reporting with some parts of ATL missing more than 10%.

[Dr. Arch]

A little more of GA came in. Trump is now down to 49.6% (+26K votes). GA is still at 95% reporting with some parts of ATL missing more than 10%.

Is this good or bad?

Good for Biden. So long as this keeps up, he is on track to flip the state.

[Dr. Arch]

Seems to be a ton of ballots yet to be included in Atlanta per CNN. They're hard at work.

Key question: Atlanta specifically or the rest of Fulton? Because that matters a lot.

GREATER ATLANTA AREA (Heavy Biden)

Fulton: 95% Reporting
Gwinnett: 95% Reporting
Cobb: 95% Reporting
DeKalb: 95% Reporting
Newton: 95% Reporting
Henry: 95% Reporting
Douglas: 93% Reporting
Rockdale: 89% Reporting
Clayton: 84% Reporting

Other Heavily Biden Metros Missing:

Clarke (Athens): 95% Reporting
Chatham (Savannah): 87% Reporting
Muscogee (Columbus): 86% Reporting
Richmond (Augusta): 86% Reporting

A good chunk of rural blue counties are at less than 90% as well. Biden is well on track to flip the state.


*Bolded areas are below the overall state reporting rate, which means their final totals will weigh heavier than their proportion when they report.

**None of these areas are above the current state reporting rate (95%).

[Dr. Arch]

Seems to be a ton of ballots yet to be included in Atlanta per CNN. They're hard at work.

Key question: Atlanta specifically or the rest of Fulton? Because that matters a lot.

GREATER ATLANTA AREA (Heavy Biden)

Fulton: 95% Reporting
Gwinnett: 95% Reporting
Cobb: 95% Reporting
DeKalb: 95% Reporting
Newton: 95% Reporting
Henry: 95% Reporting
Douglas: 93% Reporting
Rockdale: 89% Reporting
Clayton: 84% Reporting

Other Heavily Biden Friendly Metros Missing:

Clarke (Athens): 95% Reporting
Chatham (Savannah): 87% Reporting
Muscogee (Columbus): 86% Reporting
Richmond (Augusta): 86% Reporting

A good chunk of rural blue counties are at less than 90% as well. Biden is well on track to flip the state.


*Bolded areas are below the overall state reporting rate, which means their final totals will weigh heavier than their proportion when they report.

**None of these areas are above the current state reporting rate (95%).

where is Dougherty on there?

Dougherty is at 99%.

Honorable mention is Fayette, which almost flipped and is at 95% (chance to come to a tie).

[Dr. Arch]

How is the situation in GA? is Biden likely to overcome this 23,000 vote deficit?

Read my earlier post.

[Dr. Arch]

90,000 ballots across the state of GA. SOS won't speak until the morning, as they counting furiously through the night.

Is 90,000 enough?

The way they've been going so far, yes.

Yes, it would be around +68,000 votes for Biden, which would put GA at Biden+1 or so, with a margin of +45,000.


Note: I'm being conservative by giving Biden 75% of these ballots, which is a bit under where he's been so far with these votes.

[Dr. Arch]

According to the Philadelphia county website, turnout was 51% and they’ve received a total of 233583
Mail votes with 97% counted.

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?&cat=PREC

Listen to the SOS here. These state websites are likely not updating at these hours. Alternatively, we can just wait until tomorrow and stop speculating.

[Dr. Arch]

Per CNN, 62K new Maricopa ballot count.

Biden: 912,585, 51%
Trump: 838,071, 47%

is this good?

It was the last update where Trump was expected to do better, and he netted only +11k. The rest is from reliably blue areas (like Gallego's district).

[Dr. Arch]

Per CNN, 62K new Maricopa ballot count.

Biden: 912,585, 51%
Trump: 838,071, 47%

is this good?

Moves the needle to Trump a bit. If that keeps up, Trump will catch up in AZ. Dunno if it will though.

Don't forget that Cococino and Apache are still missing absentees, and those are deep blue counties.

[Dr. Arch]

Hmm, Trump probably had to outright win this batch if he really wanted to stay in the game...

Yep. I would call it now. CNN might do so soon.

[Dr. Arch]

So....that latest vote drop wasn’t enough for Trump?

No

[Dr. Arch]

Could you folks stop bickering and doomering so we can focus on reports about numbers?

Has anyone heard about the times that we expect meaningful updates from PA, GA, NV and AZ?

[Dr. Arch]

Could you folks stop bickering and doomering so we can focus on reports about numbers?

Has anyone heard about the times that we expect meaningful updates from PA, GA, NV and AZ?

11 - GA
12 - NV, PA
Tonight - AZ

Awesome, thanks.