COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

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The top drugmakers are already planning on treating COVID like the seasonal flu, and dealing with it with an annual (and combined) shot:

Pfizer and Moderna expect seasonal booster shots after omicron wave
Seasonal COVID boosters may be combined with flu shots in the future, Moderna says.

Only the immuno-compromised need to take these shots every four to six months.  Everyone else can just take them annually from now on. 

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https://twitter.com/ErinBanco/status/1484677169632755712

The CDC director called for broadscale investment in public health — including helping to hire more nurses locally, staffing emergency departments and recruiting statisticians and data crunchers. Walensky’s focus on strengthening public health offices underscores the extent to which she thinks the CDC must improve its federal response by revitalizing the local and state health systems it relies upon.

Walensky said the CDC has made some improvements to its data-collection methods, including setting up a more accurate and sustainable system to obtain hospital information. But she plans to put the agency’s data modernization effort front and center in the coming year.

“The pipes have to connect,” Walensky said. “We also have to get to a place where each state is collecting data that … can feed in in a way that can be crosstalk with all the other states.”

Those changes will likely take years to implement. In the meantime, Walensky said the CDC is trying to augment the information it has with other forms of data from international allies and academic institutions.

But accurate, real-time data will become increasingly important as the country tries to move from the pandemic.

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So it is looking like Valentine's Day (or thereabouts) will be the peak for the Omicron variant in the United States.  Thereafter, it will gradually fade away:
 
Coronavirus Update: Fauci Predicts Omicron Variant Will Reach Peak In February

I am definitely staying in Camp 3 until late March or early April. 

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The midterms are going to be a total and complete slaughter.

If there is a silver-lining, it is this -the Republican-controlled Congress will force the country to move on past the COVID pandemic at long last, treating it as an endemic like the flu.  And by the time they take over, the return to normalcy will be not only needed but also welcomed across party lines. 

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Now that Omicron and Delta are in the rear-view mirror, Americans are starting to regain their sense of optimism that the worst of the COVID pandemic is behind us, and that now we can see the end is in sight:

Americans' views of pandemic, economy tick up: poll

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New Covid Data Show New York Returning to Pre-Omicron Surge Levels

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Happy Valentine's Day everyone! 

https://twitter.com/SavalFoods/status/1493289949248073732

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This country couldn't win World War II today. "Food rationing?? Not being able to get nylons and clothing when I want it?!? We need to remove these restrictions because the soldiers are great and brave enough they don't need ready supplies like that!" Completely pathetic. There, I said it....

I’ve never understood this analogy.  Aren’t the pro-mask, pro-lockdown side the one who aren’t willing to risk their lives to protest the American way of life?  How are you going to be willing to storm the beach at Normandy if you’re not even willing to get a sore throat for a few days?

There was similar shirking of mask wearing and other mitigation measures during the Spanish Influenza pandemic.  And yet we got over the pandemic, and then went on to endure the Great Depression, fight and win the Second World War after Pearl Harbor, and wage the Cold War against the Soviet Union and its allies and eventually triumphed over communism.

I wouldn't worry.  

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I am not anticipating any controversy around this funding request:

Biden Admin Seeks $30 Billion More From Congress to Fight COVID -Sources

The Biden administration is seeking $30 billion in additional funds from Congress to fight the COVID-19 pandemic to bolster vaccines, treatments, testing supply, and research, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The $30 billion request includes $17.9 billion for vaccines and therapeutics, two sources familiar with it said.

Administration officials and congressional staff have been in talks about the issue, a Department of Health and Human Services spokesperson confirmed on Tuesday.

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U.S. COVID Deaths See a Peak As Cases Take Significant Dive
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As of Monday's update (which it's worth noting seems to have a couple of gaps, albeit not huge ones), our weekly national case load is now back below peak-Delta levels in early September.

When our death rate eventually falls to a similar level, I will be joining Camp 4.

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More virus rules fall as CDC hints at better times ahead

The title of this article reminds of this Civil War-era song:

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Hybrid immunity offers increased protection that is longer-lasting against Covid-19 reinfection, studies show

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A new study indicates the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron may cause severe disease at the level of prior variants. It's already shown to be more contagious than Omicron (BA.1) and will eventually become the dominant variant. You guys thought the end-of-pandemic party was on, well, it might already be over! I thought we wouldn't see another surge until the end of the year but if this study holds, we may see another one within a few months!

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html

The BA.2 virus -- a subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant -- isn't just spreading faster than its distant cousin, it may also cause more severe disease and appears capable of thwarting some of the key weapons we have against Covid-19, new research suggests.
New lab experiments from Japan show that BA.2 may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as older variants of Covid-19, including Delta.
And like Omicron, it appears to largely escape the immunity created by vaccines. A booster shot restores protection, making illness after infection about 74% less likely.

BA.2 is also resistant to some treatments, including sotrovimab, the monoclonal antibody that's currently being used against Omicron.

You sound almost giddy with excitement, what with your use of exclamation marks...

From the same article you posted:

Similar to the original Omicron, BA.2 was capable of breaking through antibodies in the blood of people who’d been vaccinated against Covid-19. It was also resistant to the antibodies of people who’d been infected with Covid-19 early in the pandemic, including Alpha and Delta. And BA.2 was almost completely resistant to some monoclonal antibody treatments.

But there was a bright spot: Antibodies in the blood of people who’d recently had Omicron also seemed to have some protection against BA.2, especially if they’d also been vaccinated.

And that raises an important point, Fuller says. Even though BA.2 seems more contagious and pathogenic than Omicron, it may not wind up causing a more devastating wave of Covid-19 infections.

I hate to disappoint you, but with nearly three-quarters of all Americans having been exposed to the Omicron variant, we are now immune to it. Which also means that BA 2 will not have quite the same devastating impact that Delta and the original COVID had.

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When even Dr. Fauci is saying we should start moving towards normalcy, you know the pandemic is on its last legs:

Fauci says time to start 'inching' back toward normality

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A new study indicates the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron may cause severe disease at the level of prior variants. It's already shown to be more contagious than Omicron (BA.1) and will eventually become the dominant variant. You guys thought the end-of-pandemic party was on, well, it might already be over! I thought we wouldn't see another surge until the end of the year but if this study holds, we may see another one within a few months!

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html

The BA.2 virus -- a subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant -- isn't just spreading faster than its distant cousin, it may also cause more severe disease and appears capable of thwarting some of the key weapons we have against Covid-19, new research suggests.
New lab experiments from Japan show that BA.2 may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as older variants of Covid-19, including Delta.
And like Omicron, it appears to largely escape the immunity created by vaccines. A booster shot restores protection, making illness after infection about 74% less likely.

BA.2 is also resistant to some treatments, including sotrovimab, the monoclonal antibody that's currently being used against Omicron.

You sound almost giddy with excitement, what with your use of exclamation marks...

From the same article you posted:

Similar to the original Omicron, BA.2 was capable of breaking through antibodies in the blood of people who’d been vaccinated against Covid-19. It was also resistant to the antibodies of people who’d been infected with Covid-19 early in the pandemic, including Alpha and Delta. And BA.2 was almost completely resistant to some monoclonal antibody treatments.

But there was a bright spot: Antibodies in the blood of people who’d recently had Omicron also seemed to have some protection against BA.2, especially if they’d also been vaccinated.

And that raises an important point, Fuller says. Even though BA.2 seems more contagious and pathogenic than Omicron, it may not wind up causing a more devastating wave of Covid-19 infections.

I hate to disappoint you, but with nearly three-quarters of all Americans having been exposed to the Omicron variant, we are now immune to it. Which also means that BA 2 will not have quite the same devastating impact that Delta and the original COVID had.

That's not what your article says. It says that 73% either got a booster or has been infected recently by BA.1. Only the people who were infected by BA.1 recently can hope to be immune to BA.2, as we all know that breakthrough infections are common now.

Are you sure you read it?

About half of eligible Americans have received booster shots, there have been nearly 80 million confirmed infections overall, and many more infections are all but certain to have never been reported. One influential model uses those factors and others to estimate that 73% of Americans are, for now, immune to omicron, the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19, and that could rise to 80% by mid-March.

If you are now immune to Omicron, you are likely immune to the new BA 2 sub-variant as well.  Which is pretty much everyone, vaccinated and unvaccinated alike.

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U.S. COVID Deaths See a Peak As Cases Take Significant Dive
----------------

As of Monday's update (which it's worth noting seems to have a couple of gaps, albeit not huge ones), our weekly national case load is now back below peak-Delta levels in early September.

When our death rate eventually falls to a similar level, I will be joining Camp 4.

Deaths lag too much, you should use hospitalizations since those lag a bit less.

Call it an abundance of caution.   

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Americans Are Still Living With a 2020 Attitude Toward COVID-19 Risk. It's Time for That to Change

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That's a clever use by Gov. Jared Polis of a traditionally conservative talking point:

Democratic governor says party should push masks and vaccines 'as a matter of personal responsibility'

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For most people, if you took a booster shot, you probably don't have to take another until the at least the end of the year, if ever:

Got a Covid Booster? You Probably Won’t Need Another for a Long Time

As people across the world grapple with the prospect of living with the coronavirus for the foreseeable future, one question looms large: How soon before they need yet another shot?

Not for many months, and perhaps not for years, according to a flurry of new studies.

Three doses of a Covid vaccine — or even just two — are enough to protect most people from serious illness and death for a long time, the studies suggest.

“We’re starting to see now diminishing returns on the number of additional doses,” said John Wherry, director of the Institute for immunology at the University of Pennsylvania. Although people over 65 or at high risk of illness may benefit from a fourth vaccine dose, it may be unnecessary for most people, he added.

Federal health officials including Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the Biden administration’s top Covid adviser, have also said that they are unlikely to recommend a fourth dose before the fall.

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As of Presidents' Day, the weekly average COVID death toll fell under 2,000 for the first time since January:

COVID-19 Update: US Death Toll Falls Below 2,000 Per Day For First Time In A Month

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CDC to significantly ease pandemic mask guidelines Friday

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They might need to up the dosage just a bit even if there's a higher likelihood of side effects if these vaccines are to have more beneficial impact for children:

Pfizer Shot Is Far Less Effective in 5- to 11-Year-Olds Than in Older Kids, New Data Show
While protection against hospitalization is still strong, the vaccine offered almost no protection against infection, even just a month after full vaccination.

The coronavirus vaccine made by Pfizer-BioNTech is much less effective in preventing infection in children ages 5 to 11 years than in older adolescents or adults, according to a large new set of data collected by health officials in New York State — a finding that has deep ramifications for these children and their parents.

The Pfizer vaccine is the only Covid shot authorized for that age group in the United States. It still prevents severe illness in the children, but offers virtually no protection against infection, even within a month after full immunization, the data, which were collected during the Omicron surge, suggest.

The sharp drop in the vaccine’s performance in young children may stem from the fact that they receive one-third the dose given to older children and adults, researchers and federal officials who have reviewed the data said.

The findings, which were posted online on Monday, come on the heels of clinical trial results indicating that the vaccine fared poorly in children aged 2 to 4 years, who received an even smaller dose.

Experts worried that the news would further dissuade hesitant parents from immunizing their children. Other studies have shown the vaccine was not powerfully protective against infection with the Omicron variant in adults, either.

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This is the first update to our COVID strategy since the pandemic began two years ago:

White House to unveil blueprint for the next Covid phase
The document will be put out after the State of the Union address and chart a more cautiously optimistic path forward.

The White House is planning to unveil its wide-ranging strategy for the next phase of the pandemic response on Wednesday morning, according to an internal document obtained by POLITICO.

The Covid-19 strategy is expected to lay out how the nation can safely ease public health restrictions and restore some sense of normalcy as the U.S. enters what officials hope will be a less disruptive endemic stage of the virus.

Biden officials have consulted for weeks with a range of outside advisers, governors and business executives to compile the sweeping plan, which comes as the Omicron surge wanes and cases plummet across the country.

While the White House remains reluctant to declare the pandemic over, the strategy is likely to make a case for scaling back public health measures, people familiar with the matter said — pointing to the growing availability of vaccines and treatments capable of better protecting Americans from the virus.

The strategy is also expected to lay out how the administration plans to prepare for and react to potential future surges, leaving the door open for the need to reimpose certain protections if another dangerous variant hits the U.S.

The administration is exploring how to streamline the process of obtaining treatment for Covid-19 by setting up so-called 'test to treat' programs at pharmacies and other entities, according to a source familiar with the plan. The idea is that people with Covid-19 symptoms should be able to go to a location where they could be tested for the virus and prescribed a treatment like an antiviral pill if an infection is detected.

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This should put to rest one of those COVID vaccine conspiracy theories:

Covid vaccines not linked to deaths, major US study finds

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There's still the slim chance something can be salvaged in a standalone COVID bill:

House yanks Covid aid after bumps in drive to pass $1.5T gov funding plan