US-SEN 2020: Which seats should Democrats go after?

[BuckeyeNut]

Tier 1

Colorado: Gardner is all but DOA. I'm unsure who Democrats run, but any of this cycle's failed Senate candidates could be contenders, excluding Rep. Ed Perlmutter, could be good gets. Joe Salazar, no relation, could also be good, assuming he wins his election for state Attorney General.

Maine: There's a decent chance Collins retires, but if she doesn't, this seat isn't worth seriously contesting. Assuming she does, State Senate Minority Leader and prominent Bernie booster, Troy Jackson, would be a good get. Especially if Jackson winds up running for and winning ME-02.

North Carolina: There's a decent chance Tillis will retire as well, however, unlike Maine, this is worth seriously contesting regardless. State Senator Jeff Jackson would be amazing as would frmr Sec. of Transportation Anthony Foxx. Attorney General Josh Stein is another option, but he should run for re-election. 

Tier 1.5

Montana: If Collins runs for re-election, Montana becomes a Tier 1 target; if she doesn't, it's Tier 2. As MTT has pointed out, Daines' win in 2014 was an outlier. Governor Bullock would make this race very competitive, especially if a good Democratic candidate is also running for Governor.

Tier 2

Alaska: Alaska's small size and the disproportionality of the Senate make the state a tantalizing investment opportunity, and we know from Begich's win in 2008, as well as his narrow loss in 2014, that the state is increasingly open to Democrats. The aforementioned Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz would be the top get for Democrats, as his position puts him in a good position to replicate Begich's success.

Iowa: Democrats should not and cannot give up on Iowa yet, even if Kansas ultimately proves to be more fertile ground. I'm not actually sure who would be a good candidate against Ernst. If Sanders organizer and labor leader Pete D'Allesandro wins election to IA-03, I'd like to see him run.

Georgia: David Perdue was not blessed with cousin Sonny's talents, the RAISE Act should prove to be unpopular, and Democrats can't afford to ignore Georgia from here on out. Since Carter passed on running for Governor again, he could give this race a go. Sall Yates also might.

Tier 3

Kansas: Democrats seem to be coming back and Kansas, and I'm fairly certain Roberts will retire. If Paul Davis win election to KS-03, he could be a great candidate. The same could also be said of James Thompson, but I am unconvinced of his chances outside of a special election.

Kentucky: Fool's gold for Democrats, but Republicans won MI, PA, and WI last year, so what the Hell. McConnell has only really won a decisive victory twice, the first in 2002, the second in 2014, the worst year for Democrats in damn near a century. Given the fact Grimes will be term limited out of the Secretary of State spot in 2019, I think it's very likely she runs for Governor and Andy Beshear runs for re-election. A second term AG Beshear can easily run from cover. I also wouldn't rul out McConnell retiring, especially if 2018 isn't a good year for the GOP.

Texas: I don't expect Beto O'Rourke to win this year, but his campaign could be the organizational kick in the pants the Texas Democratic Party needs. Cornyn seems like a rather uninspiring Senator, having only won 59% of the primary vote in 2014. With some McCaskill-level ratf[inks]ing, this could be compeititve.