US-SEN 2020: Which seats should Democrats go after?

[BuckeyeNut]

Tier 1

Colorado: Gardner is all but DOA. I'm unsure who Democrats run, but any of this cycle's failed Senate candidates could be contenders, excluding Rep. Ed Perlmutter, could be good gets. Joe Salazar, no relation, could also be good, assuming he wins his election for state Attorney General.

Maine: There's a decent chance Collins retires, but if she doesn't, this seat isn't worth seriously contesting. Assuming she does, State Senate Minority Leader and prominent Bernie booster, Troy Jackson, would be a good get. Especially if Jackson winds up running for and winning ME-02.

North Carolina: There's a decent chance Tillis will retire as well, however, unlike Maine, this is worth seriously contesting regardless. State Senator Jeff Jackson would be amazing as would frmr Sec. of Transportation Anthony Foxx. Attorney General Josh Stein is another option, but he should run for re-election. 

Tier 1.5

Montana: If Collins runs for re-election, Montana becomes a Tier 1 target; if she doesn't, it's Tier 2. As MTT has pointed out, Daines' win in 2014 was an outlier. Governor Bullock would make this race very competitive, especially if a good Democratic candidate is also running for Governor.

Tier 2

Alaska: Alaska's small size and the disproportionality of the Senate make the state a tantalizing investment opportunity, and we know from Begich's win in 2008, as well as his narrow loss in 2014, that the state is increasingly open to Democrats. The aforementioned Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz would be the top get for Democrats, as his position puts him in a good position to replicate Begich's success.

Iowa: Democrats should not and cannot give up on Iowa yet, even if Kansas ultimately proves to be more fertile ground. I'm not actually sure who would be a good candidate against Ernst. If Sanders organizer and labor leader Pete D'Allesandro wins election to IA-03, I'd like to see him run.

Georgia: David Perdue was not blessed with cousin Sonny's talents, the RAISE Act should prove to be unpopular, and Democrats can't afford to ignore Georgia from here on out. Since Carter passed on running for Governor again, he could give this race a go. Sall Yates also might.

Tier 3

Kansas: Democrats seem to be coming back and Kansas, and I'm fairly certain Roberts will retire. If Paul Davis win election to KS-03, he could be a great candidate. The same could also be said of James Thompson, but I am unconvinced of his chances outside of a special election.

Kentucky: Fool's gold for Democrats, but Republicans won MI, PA, and WI last year, so what the Hell. McConnell has only really won a decisive victory twice, the first in 2002, the second in 2014, the worst year for Democrats in damn near a century. Given the fact Grimes will be term limited out of the Secretary of State spot in 2019, I think it's very likely she runs for Governor and Andy Beshear runs for re-election. A second term AG Beshear can easily run from cover. I also wouldn't rul out McConnell retiring, especially if 2018 isn't a good year for the GOP.

Texas: I don't expect Beto O'Rourke to win this year, but his campaign could be the organizational kick in the pants the Texas Democratic Party needs. Cornyn seems like a rather uninspiring Senator, having only won 59% of the primary vote in 2014. With some McCaskill-level ratf[inks]ing, this could be compeititve.

[Blair]

Okay come on guys Mitch McConnell isn't Jack Kennedy

Jack Kennedy never faced the competition McConnell did.

Henry Cabot Lodge would disagree.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

If I had to rank and rate them:

1. CO (Likely D)
(1.1 ME - if Collins retires (Pure Tossup))
2. NC (Pure Tossup)
3. MT (Pure Tossup)
4. GA (Tilt R)
5. AK (Tilt/Lean R)
6. IA (Lean/Likely R)
7. WV (Likely/Safe R)

Daines' 2014 margin was an outlier (think of something like MO-SEN 2010) and he will be seriously targeted in 2020. He's not that popular, has little crossover appeal, his voting record can be attacked pretty easily and there will be lots of other hotly contested statewide races on the ballot (especially the gubernatorial race). Plus, the Democratic nominee will probably do better than Clinton here.

Races the Democrats definitely shouldn't target: SC, TX, ME (with Collins), KY and almost certainly SD as well

I think you're a little too bullish on Joni Ernst and a underestimating the remaining 6 Republicans on that list.

[Figueira]

First seven by default. The other three should maybe be targeted depending on how things look, along with South Dakota, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Alabama (hey, we could hold it then for all we know), and maaaaaaaaaaaybe Nebraska and Mississippi.

Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee aren't worth it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems should only go after Maine if Collins retires.

[I’m not Stu]

Will Shelley Moore Capito face a primary challenger in 2020?

[Figueira]

Dems should only go after Maine if Collins retires.

She could theoretically lose the primary, or there could be a surprise retirement. But yeah, if the primary has come and gone and Collins is the nominee, there's no point in spending money there

[Rjjr77]

Okay come on guys Mitch McConnell isn't Jack Kennedy

Jack Kennedy never faced the competition McConnell did.

Henry Cabot Lodge would disagree.

and? If you think about it JFK won 2 competitive races in his entire career.

[Rjjr77]

Will Shelley Moore Capito face a primary challenger in 2020?

no. shes super popular in her state, her father is also one of the most popular political figures in West Virginia history.

[Blair]

Okay come on guys Mitch McConnell isn't Jack Kennedy

Jack Kennedy never faced the competition McConnell did.

Henry Cabot Lodge would disagree.

and? If you think about it JFK won 2 competitive races in his entire career.

But you were wrong to claim that JFK never faced the competition that Mitch did; won a senate seat against the most famous family in Massachusetts, in a year when Eisenhower carried the state, then won the nomination of the party despite facing the previous nominee and the Senate Majority Leader at the convention, and then beat the sitting Vice-President during a relatively peace and prosperous time.

My entire point is that yes Mitch is a good campaigner, and has come back from bad odds but he's not the best political campaigner in the last 100 years as some people are claiming.

[Rjjr77]

Okay come on guys Mitch McConnell isn't Jack Kennedy

Jack Kennedy never faced the competition McConnell did.

Henry Cabot Lodge would disagree.

and? If you think about it JFK won 2 competitive races in his entire career.

1984 and 1996 were the only really impressive McConnell wins. 2008 was an embarrassment and 2002 and 2014 shouldn't have been competitive for a Democrat regardless

1984 he beats an incumbent
1990 he beats a popular former Louisville mayor (and county executive)
1996 he beats the most popular politician in Kentucky history, in a state that went democrat for president at the same time
in 2002 they brought out a member of a fairly well known kentucky dynasty to face McConnell, he destroyed her.
in 2008, a year with Obama on the ticket and McConnell still unpopular (remember hes unpopular in most of these races) the DSCC went after McConnell hard and they had a good candidate, McConnell still beats him, by a solid margin.
2014, its the rising star of the Kentucky democrat party, she gets throttled.

Yes 2002 and 2014 were republican years but 2008, 1996, 1990 werent.

you also have to remember Kentucky is a state that in the past 100 years has only elected 6 Republican governors, so it isn't as if it has been some deep blue state, McConnell is impressive.

[Rjjr77]

Okay come on guys Mitch McConnell isn't Jack Kennedy

Jack Kennedy never faced the competition McConnell did.

Henry Cabot Lodge would disagree.

and? If you think about it JFK won 2 competitive races in his entire career.

But you were wrong to claim that JFK never faced the competition that Mitch did; won a senate seat against the most famous family in Massachusetts, in a year when Eisenhower carried the state, then won the nomination of the party despite facing the previous nominee and the Senate Majority Leader at the convention, and then beat the sitting Vice-President during a relatively peace and prosperous time.

My entire point is that yes Mitch is a good campaigner, and has come back from bad odds but he's not the best political campaigner in the last 100 years as some people are claiming.

He hasnt faced the competition Mitch has, he had a rep seat cleared for him, and he faced one tough opponent in the senate and one tough opponent in a presidential. McConnell has faced 3x the opponents Kennedy has, while being unpopular.

[Ye We Can]

Okay come on guys Mitch McConnell isn't Jack Kennedy

Jack Kennedy never faced the competition McConnell did.

Henry Cabot Lodge would disagree.

and? If you think about it JFK won 2 competitive races in his entire career.

But you were wrong to claim that JFK never faced the competition that Mitch did; won a senate seat against the most famous family in Massachusetts, in a year when Eisenhower carried the state, then won the nomination of the party despite facing the previous nominee and the Senate Majority Leader at the convention, and then beat the sitting Vice-President during a relatively peace and prosperous time.

My entire point is that yes Mitch is a good campaigner, and has come back from bad odds but he's not the best political campaigner in the last 100 years as some people are claiming.

It isn't really comparable though. Lodge expected to sleepwalk to an election win and spent most of his time with the Eisenhower campaign. Lodge was also part of sheniagains to deny the nomination from Taft and was not a benefit of the party unity Eisenhower received. Kennedy was extraordinarly lucky that Lodge was asleep at the wheel until the last week or so.

[Rjjr77]

Combs-Weinberg and Lunsford were trash candidates tho

Lunsford was no trash candidate (Why do people often assume the candidate sucks when he loses), he was recruited specifically for the race by Beshear out performed Obama by 6 points (and almost 100,000 votes). He was everything people say Kander is. Combs-Weinberg was a dynasty, she may have done poorly and not been the worlds best recruit but she was no joke.

[Meatball Ron]

If Collins runs, write it off entirely.


I don't think competing heavily in SC is worthwhile

Oops

[Stuart98]

Fun thread to read, though saying too much before election night might be conjuring up too much bad juju.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Funny to see how these takes aged

[cp]

Arizona not even on the list! I understand why, but it's still jarring considering how much of a showpiece AZ-Sen has become for Democrats' hopes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All except WVA

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Arizona not even on the list! I understand why, but it's still jarring considering how much of a showpiece AZ-Sen has become for Democrats' hopes.

mccain wasnt dead yet

[ultraviolet]

Arizona not even on the list! I understand why, but it's still jarring considering how much of a showpiece AZ-Sen has become for Democrats' hopes.

This was before John McCain’s death

[Mr. Illini]

Okay come on guys Mitch McConnell isn't Jack Kennedy

That was really uncalled for, Senator