CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Wow, Menendez only leading by 15 points in the Gloucester county early vote!!

The worst Democrat in the Senate deserves a closer than expected race here.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Wow, Menendez only leading by 15 points in the Gloucester county early vote!!

The worst Democrat in the Senate deserves a closer than expected race here.

Joe Manchin is facing another primary today?

Manchin is the worst on policy, true, but Menendez is corrupt and only wasn't convicted because the Supreme Court basically made federal corruption law unenforceable.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This primary is showing Menendez is very vulnerable.

In any year other than this one, yes.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Here is Missouri results

Technically the wrong thread for that, but I always have to laugh when something like this is somehow ahead of the actual state elections website.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This is looking bad for dems in CA.

Remember, kids, always base your analysis on the earliest, most unrepresentative precincts.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Woah, Montana!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004213519036887040

I can't believe no Republican primaried Greg Gianforte.  What is wrong with these people?

Because Republicans support what he did.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Newsom now 26 points ahead of Cox

I think San Diego County just derped horribly, based on the fact that Newsome suddenly has over 500,000 votes there

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Looks like some people don't remember how substantially the national PV shifts to the Democrats in the days following presidential elections, almost entirely because of California. What do they think is going to happen statewide?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

People - Jerry Brown only got 54% in the 2014 primary, with only one other Democrat getting less than 1%, but Brown finished at 60% in the 2014 general election.

I think there is every reason to believe the same thing is going to happen in November.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Tonight, California has changed my mind. I don't think we are winning the house anymore.

I honestly don't know how you pulled that out of your ass.

Look at how ing terrible numbers in cd's are even in obvious D holds. Garamendi at 54?!

Bera at 52?!

McNerney at 53?!

Carbajal at 52?!

Waters at 68?!

Lowenthal at 56?!

Peters at 57?!

Yes, these are all likely to safe D holds, but still terrible numbers, awful!

How the hell do you dress yourself in the morning?

In what darn blue wave is Waters at 68 acceptable?!

She's in a heavily minority district that doesn't turn out reliably in the primaries?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

In this thread: People who have no experience following California elections.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Correct and potentially devastating take -->

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/no-democrats-haven-t-shown-they-re-going-win-house-n880516

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I now view the chance of a Democratic flip of the House as less than 30% in my mind. Absolutely no sign that they are replicating Clinton numbers in wealthy, minority heavy, suburban districts that they need to flip.

I can't wait until you promise to leave this forum if Democrats take the House and then less than 24 hours after the election you break that promise.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Good chart on the general tendency of Democrats to oveperform in California in November vs June:



2016 is probably a bit off due to not having a contested Republican presidential primary.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If Sanford either loses his primary or emerges wounded from an extremely close race, it would be easy to see a path to victory for Democrats in this seat. The Charleston suburbs might have a good number of votes up for grabs this year.

There was a close race in the 1st District back in 2008, although the lines have shifted quite a bit since then. I could see it being close, doubt it flips.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Walters vote share dropped from 53.2% to 52.7%.

Where are you getting that? Everything I see has Walters at 53.1%

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Democrats didn’t get locked out of any of the competitive House races in California; Here’s why that could be a bad thing:

1. It means they have to spend money on them

Running for Congress is hard work and now, the DCCC will have to spend money to win these races, money that could be better used to help weak incumbent Senate candidates like Claire McCaskill or Joe Manchin, who now looks likely to lose reelection.

2. Look at how bad Democratic incumbents did

Ami Bera, Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney...the list of Democratic incumbents that underperformed is long. Just because Democrats didn’t get locked out doesn’t mean they will do well this year.

3. Their vote share was weak

With exception to CA-49, Democrats received fewer primary votes in every competitive district, meaning that they will lose in November.

4. Why bother? Gerrymandering means Democrats can’t win

Why try if failure is certain? Democrats should try to protect what they have and hope that compromising with the President will get them to a better place with working class whites.

5. There’s a Republican on the Gubernatorial ballot

This basically means all the Republicans will turn out and Democrats won’t. Yikes.

6. The generic ballot is close and shows that Democrats are losing fluid

Generic ballot polls have tightened in recent months and suggest that Democrats are losing votes; this could mean that they will even lose their close California seats in November. Polls have been fluid and suggest that no side has the advantage.

7. They didn’t get into the runoff for CA-08

Wow. Red Wave inbound.

Looks like Democrats have a lot of work to do before they can celebrate. Most likely, they won’t have much to celebrate in California this November.

Ummm no. We have a candidate in every race, the GOP's, not the Dem's, vote share is down across every district, turnout amongst Democrats was sky high, and the Generic ballot was being powered by crappy online polls like Reuters for the past two weeks. I still don't see what the commotion from the right is about California. They got crushed. They don't even have a senate candidate. It seems to me you're concern trolling.

What are you talking about?? You’re not looking at the numbers! Typical Democratic hack. Wow!

(I’m kidding, dude. I had hoped my post would make it obvious.)

Oh damn I'm so sorry. I had some sort of feeling that you were joking but I didn't know how to respond.

The problem is that there are users who would make all of these arguments in earnest.