Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Virginiá]

Yeah, after a long period where Trump had stabilized at around 37-38% of approval he seems to have slipped a bit more. His slow-motion descend continues.

It seems like Trump has been hitting very high 50s / low 60s more often. One thing to keep in mind is that if Trump did in fact stabilize at a lower range, it wouldn't be immediately obvious. Probably not for a few weeks, anyway.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (December 11th)

Approve 35% (nc)
Disapprove 60% (nc)

[Virginiá]

I've spent a good deal of my time reading demographics. Brooks knows the GOP is finished. Theyre not coming back from this for a generation....if ever. 2018 is the beginning of the descent and while the GOP may on occasion regain control of Congress, the narrative will have shifted so far to the left that their going to be too boxed in to legislation the far right garbage legislation they've been dishing out this year. Good riddance to the such a lousy political party

If history is any guide, the party will just end up moving back to the center after a prolonged period in the wilderness. After losing 3 or 4 presidential elections and not being able to claw back a Congressional majority despite a Democratic midterm would put massive pressure on the party to conform to the new majority consensus.

[Virginiá]

The GCB numbers are looking more and more believable.

I still think Democrats will probably max out at 10 or 11 points, but I do think if the midterms were held around this time, Republicans would probably get whooped by around that margin in the House PV. It's not just the same one or two polls showing double digit Democrat leads in the GCB - it's a whole variety of them. And this doesn't even include the others that show high single digits.

Like I was saying in the generic ballot megathread, the polling resembles the 2005-2006 time period a lot now. The difference being that we have more polls to work with, and Democrats began posting big leads very soon after Trump took office. At this point I think it is fair to say that xanax prescriptions for Republicans are going to go through the roof in 2018-2019.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (December 12th)

Approve 36% (+1)
Disapprove 59% (-1)

[Virginiá]

Sort of strange that his approvals got better but generic ballot question shifted in the Dems favor no?

Not necessarily. It just means people who disapprove of Trump are becoming more willing to translate that disapproval into punishment against his party. I'm sure there are some Trump supporters who are not all too happy with Congressional Republicans, as well, given how the GOP agenda being pushed right now goes counter to Trump's promises. Also, given that people who disapprove of the president are highly correlated with votes against the president's party, -15 leaves plenty of room for that generic poll movement.

[Virginiá]

Mmmm...look at that under 35 number:



Permanent majority imminent

If that is the end result, or even higher, it would have to be the worst performance among young(er) voters Republicans have posted since maybe 1974 or 1964, or perhaps even further back. The funny thing is, Republicans have been posting awful results with young voters for so long that this isn't even *that* surprising.

This is also part of why 2018 has me so interested - for the first time since young voters have trended hard against the GOP, we get to see just how low they can go. After all, 2006 and 2008 was only the beginning of their hard left trend, and from 2010-2016, that was all under Obama, whose presidency depressed the Dem base enough to result in some pretty big waves. But if Democrats really do get 70%, that will show that Republicans have lost even more support among Millennials/gen z under Obama than we originally thought, and that their bottom may actually be in the upper teens-lower 20s.

Republicans really should be worrying about this, but I rarely ever see any true concern for it. In fact, Republican lawmakers have basically accepted it and essentially take craps on the Millennial generation from their lofty perches. Meanwhile, these voters are growing up and will eventually displace baby boomers. What do Republicans think they will do then? Magically turn Republican just because they got older, all while the GOP has done nothing to reach out to them? Puh-lease.

[Virginiá]

Y'all get so triggered when a poll destroys your democratic wave narrative.

You're one to talk about narratives. You have a narrative in your head about a banner Republican year despite no evidence to support it. Not only no evidence, but reams of evidence to the contrary, and yet you just keep on clinging to it like you were visited by Jesus himself and given a glimpse of the future.

For every poll you have that you think confirms your narrative, there are dozens more than go directly against it. And you wonder why people laugh.

[Virginiá]

I think Trump will get a bump may take a few days but he might get back into the 42-45% range.

Trump hasn't been in that range since the first few months of his presidency. Given his current position, that is less like a bump and more like a rocket launch.

edit: Minus one brief (1 day) surge to 42% in June and an immediate 3% drop the next day

[Virginiá]

How the hell was Trump almost able to win NH?!

Because Clinton was almost as unpopular as Trump, and in an election between two very unpopular candidates, things even out and the fundamentals become more predictive. The fundamentals predicted a close race.

This is mostly why I think people acting like Trump is favored in 2020 completely misinterpreted a crucial component of the 2016 election. Most people don't actually like Trump, and nationally and in numerous states he actually did worse than Romney. Unless he draws an equally unpopular candidate in 2020, he'll probably get blown out.

[Virginiá]

Hell, Trump could lose by more than Romney in 2020 and he doesn't even have to lose any of the people who voted for him in 2016. All the Democrat has to do is consolidate everyone who voted for Clinton, and those who voted 3rd party. That's how fragile his reelection prospects are. However I seriously doubt he is on track to maintain his current base of support. His "outsider" credentials are shot, and now he has a history to run on - an unsavory history full of policy changes that directly contradict his populist hero image. Not to mention allegations of corruption and foreign collusion.

At best, I think he could maintain the Obama 2012 trajectory, where Obama won but still lost a bit shy of half his 2008 winning margin, which in Trump's case (as a popular vote loser), you would subtract about 1 - 1.5%, bringing him down to 44.5 - 45%. And this assumes he claws his way back to 45%+ approvals, which is hardly a given considering his favorables in 2016 were constantly in the 35 - 37% range.

I dunno. I just don't see it. If Trump's popularity starts surging to near or >50% sometime before October 2020, or the Democrat is again really unpopular, I'll reconsider. Otherwise I think he's got a very short shelf life.

[Virginiá]

Gravis Florida Poll

Favorable - 39
Unfavorable - 53

Great Poll For Trump In A State He Only Won By 1 Point.

Mods please ban.

It's pretty satisfying watching some Republicans lower the bar so much just to be able to claim some form of "success" after all the setbacks Democrats had under Obama. I look forward to the newest location of the goalposts people like LL plan to introduce after next year's electoral shellacking. It'll probably be along the lines of, "poor Democrat Party, only won 10 gubernatorial races. Couldn't even win 12. Sad!"  or  "haha Democrats underperformed so badly! They won Congress but couldn't even defeat Wicker or Barrasso. Such a failed party!"

[Virginiá]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

It also isn't in line with why people disapprove of Trump. It's not policy-related. On top of that, America isn't currently clamoring for cuts to social programs or crappier healthcare. Even if Trump's intense character deficits, perceived corruption and generally dishonest nature weren't turning so many people against him, I don't get why chronically unpopular policy proposals would suddenly right the ship.

[Virginiá]

It helps the pig has been golfing non stop. Everytime hes back in the public eye, his rating plummets like the value of his businesses

This is why I was skeptical of any claims about tax reform helping him (other than that the bill was really unpopular). Its passage coincided with a major holiday week and that alone would help Trump's approvals. It's been well-established that whenever Trump goes abroad or otherwise stops dominating the media, he usually sees a small bump in his approvals. And like clockwork, this comes to an end as soon as the focus is back on him.

At this time, his Gallup approval is nothing special. It's very much in line with his usual approvals.

[Virginiá]

LOL every red avatar in here was out of touch with the "average American voter" a year ago, predicting Hillary landslides.

In our defense, Hillary had consistent leads in every state poll before November. And as I've said before, the national polling average was more or less accurate. Eventually you guys are going to have to latch onto something else to try and discredit his terrible poll numbers and the republican losses hes contributing to.

Not to mention that it's perfectly reasonable to predict a landslide after Trump experiences quite possibly the worst presidential year October in history, where he got hit with everything from a leaked audio of him boasting about sexual assault to reports of him violating the Cubo embargo. His poll numbers were going down and Clinton was getting high single digits - double digit polls for a couple weeks. The problem here was that Clinton kept having her own problems, which included non-stop Podesta leaks and the Comey letter(s).

Obviously there was no landslide but it's a bit unfair to act like that kind of prediction was downright laughable or delusional, given the circumstances.

[Virginiá]

Gaining 2 Senate seats and 6 House seats is an interesting definition of "historic losses."

Evidently Democrats losing the White House after holding it for 8 years is grounds for historic. Although, I suppose he could mean Trump winning despite losing the popular vote by millions of votes. I don't know about you, but the last thing I'd want to be bragging about is how my party is constantly worming its way into the White House despite being rejected by a plurality of voters.

Yeah, the people that say they disapprove but will still vote for him over any Democrat will come home, and his approval rating will rise. I expect lots of bedwetting when, assuming Trump is still in office, he starts getting low to mid 40s numbers throughout 2020 despite it not meaning squat.

His favorables were stuck in the mid-high 30s like the entire campaign. Granted, it's not the same as approvals, but it shows that people just don't like him.

[Virginiá]

One thing I've always wondered is, what did Donald J. Trump ever do to deserve this kind of loyalty and trust from his supporters? All he did was run his mouth for 1.5 years leading up the election, and bam, instant loyalty. God, I mean even I never trusted Obama like that. Especially not Clinton either (both of them - although Bill was getting elected for the first time as I was being born, so he is mostly irrelevant to me). It doesn't seem to matter what the accusation against Trump is - the first thing that runs through their mind is, "this must be bs," and every thought thereafter is just a series of attempts to delegitimize or argue against it. It doesn't matter what it is. A tape comes out showing him bragging about groping women, then accusers follow backing it up, and no, it's just "locker room talk." He makes fun of a disabled journalist on STAGE AT A RALLY ON LIVE TV, and suddenly it's "just a joke." Crickets on his scam Trump University. "It's nothing" on his super profitable DC hotel while he's president, with international diplomats pouring money into it to curry favor. Crickets! And finally when they admit something must be true, they then say "it doesn't matter." For christs sake, if you just care about your party holding power, just say it. Just say the man is a trash-talking liar, but at least you're getting the policy you want. At least that's being honest.

Again, I just don't get what this man has ever done to deserve such loyalty. He's not a nice man. He's such a blatant jerk and has a solid reputation for putting himself first and lying day and night right through his teeth. It's not even like it's hard to prove it most of the time. He lies blatantly, even when he's caught. It's just become so normal for this to happen that hardly anyone brings it up anymore. And god forbid I link politifact, as Trump long ago labeled that FAKE NEWS and his followers instinctively treat it as such, even though they document his falsehoods - which are way higher than past presidents and presidential candidates. Did it ever dawn on them why Trump has so viciously gone after every single institution that can or has tried to put a check on his power? The media. Fact-checking sites. LAW ENFORCEMENT. How is it not obvious what he's trying to do?


As a new year's resolution, I just hope for some Trump supporters to take a step back and maybe try to assess the situation a bit more objectively. Genuinely ask themselves whether they may trust Trump a little too much, or at least WHY do they trust him so much. Maybe wonder if any politician deserves that, but particularly one with so much bad history.

[Virginiá]

This is a disaster! How can Gallup take the daily updates away from us ? What else am I supposed to obsess over?

[Virginiá]

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

Why is it so hard to understand that Clinton was almost as unpopular as Trump? No one trusted her and many hated her. And what ""machine""? Her campaign strategy struck out. She relied way too much on analytics.

You're making both of the candidates seem stronger than they actually were. Oh, and the national polls were not really that off - this has been covered extensively by now, but again, you just seem to be tuning out whatever electoral information makes you uncomfortable I suppose.

[Virginiá]

Can you refute my argument? Quinnipiac is practically never in line with other pollsters when it comes to Trump's approval and has to show ridiculous values. 32% approval and 40% disapproval of Republicans?

In regards to the generic poll - I certainly don't think Democrats are up +17 as that last Q poll showed, but I don't think they are so inaccurate that Democrats are only up single digits. For a Q+17, I'd expect something more like +10 or +12. Also, for the record, Quinipiac got Virginia and New Jersey right last year. It was the most accurate poll for Virginia.

As for approval polls - Q is generous in terms of low Trump approvals, but not that far out of the mainstream:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

36 - 59% disapproval is in line with what a number of other polls were showing. Of course, not quite like YouGove or Rasmussen. Looking at that list, there is a little something for everyone. Democrats can rejoice that Trump remains deeply unpopular, and Trump supporters can take solace in regularly timed Rasmussen polls that """prove""" Trump is beloved by America, despite his egregiously offensive behavior and unpopular policy decisions.

[Virginiá]

That WV approval seems more like what it would be if Trump was at a steady 30-33% nationally, which he isn't.

[Virginiá]

Of course it's Faux

This is far worse and hackish than anything I've posted in the last week.

Why are you spending so much time screwing with people anyway? I mean, there is nothing wrong with doing this as a short-term "bit" I suppose - people do this regularly around here. But the key point is they stop, and usually pretty quickly. Contrast to you, whose entire existence on this forum has been defined by trolling Democrats and liberals.

I almost want to say, "what, are you in high school?", but we actually have a number of high school kids here who are way more mature than you.

[Virginiá]

Not really, no.

[Virginiá]

538: Texas Dislikes Trump, But That Doesn’t Mean It Will Go Blue In 2018

The skinny: registered Texas voters are a lot more Republicans compared to adult Texans overall due to racially polarized voting and a large minority population.

[Virginiá]

For all intents and purposes, is there really a politically significant difference between being in the high 30s and being in the mid 40s?

It means you are still unpopular, just that the margin of your unpopularity is less.

Well, yes, I think so. It's long been noted that people who disapprove of the president tend to vote against the president's party. Not all of them - many will just stay home too. So the difference between a disapproval margin of, say, 8 is notably different than 15 - 20. Also, what kind of disapproval is important. A president with a high number of strongly disapproves is more likely to fire up his opponents. It's also hard, if not impossible, to make up significant ground approvals-wise if you have high strong disapproval numbers.