Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

[LimoLiberal]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Agreed. Also look for red wave in 2018 on the heels of the Tax Reform Bump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

[Virginiá]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

It also isn't in line with why people disapprove of Trump. It's not policy-related. On top of that, America isn't currently clamoring for cuts to social programs or crappier healthcare. Even if Trump's intense character deficits, perceived corruption and generally dishonest nature weren't turning so many people against him, I don't get why chronically unpopular policy proposals would suddenly right the ship.

[junior chįmp]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Implicit in this observation is the false premise that Trump accomplishing anything will boost his ratings. Voters aren't that rational and most of all people hate the guy and that's basically baked in at this point. We still have 11 months of him saying stupid shít, obstructing justice, self dealing and grifting from taxpayers to further motivate the 75% of the country that didn't vote for gluttonous shítgibbon

[henster]

I wonder if Trump is past the point of no return in regards to his JA. There are some Governors like Malloy and Brownback who at some point became unpopular and never recovered. Like there is nothing either of those Governor's could do to improve their popularity, views on Trump may be baked in.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I personally feel Charlottesville was the tipping point for the sliver of people who were actually open to giving him a chance. He is not recovering. He is a morally bankrupt cretin incapable of empathy and self-reflection. He is a pea-brained child who intentionally pisses on those who do not support him. The claims of him being able to get back to 45-50 percent or even breaking that are hysterical.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I personally feel Charlottesville was the tipping point for the sliver of people who were actually open to giving him a chance. He is not recovering. He is a morally bankrupt cretin incapable of empathy and self-reflection. He is a pea-brained child who intentionally pisses on those who do not support him. The claims of him being able to get back to 45-50 percent or even breaking that are hysterical.

This is the key to it.  Certainly there's time for Trump's approval to recover, but it would require him to essentially have a personality transplant.  Even if things continue to go well, that's not going to rub off on Trump; things are going well now and his approval rating is poor, for exactly the reasons you mentioned.

[junior chįmp]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[PoliticalShelter]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

If you think "real spending cuts" will boost Trump approval rating, then you are completely delusional.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

It also isn't in line with why people disapprove of Trump. It's not policy-related. On top of that, America isn't currently clamoring for cuts to social programs or crappier healthcare. Even if Trump's intense character deficits, perceived corruption and generally dishonest nature weren't turning so many people against him, I don't get why chronically unpopular policy proposals would suddenly right the ship.

I'm saying a middle 20% or so that don't hate him (or like/love him) will shift his way if those things get done, all just because he'll be "getting stuff done" and appear to be finally "draining the swamp". 

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

It also isn't in line with why people disapprove of Trump. It's not policy-related. On top of that, America isn't currently clamoring for cuts to social programs or crappier healthcare. Even if Trump's intense character deficits, perceived corruption and generally dishonest nature weren't turning so many people against him, I don't get why chronically unpopular policy proposals would suddenly right the ship.

I'm saying a middle 20% or so that don't hate him (or like/love him) will shift his way if those things get done, all just because he'll be "getting stuff done" and appear to be finally "draining the swamp". 

How would passing a historically unpopular healthcare bill improve his approval ratings by 20 points??

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Agreed. Also look for red wave in 2018 on the heels of the Tax Reform Bump.

There. Is. No. Tax. Reform. Bump. You. F***ing. Moron.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Agreed. Also look for red wave in 2018 on the heels of the Tax Reform Bump.

There. Is. No. Tax. Reform. Bump. You. F***ing. Moron.

Don't feed the trolls.  Just ignore him.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

It also isn't in line with why people disapprove of Trump. It's not policy-related. On top of that, America isn't currently clamoring for cuts to social programs or crappier healthcare. Even if Trump's intense character deficits, perceived corruption and generally dishonest nature weren't turning so many people against him, I don't get why chronically unpopular policy proposals would suddenly right the ship.

I'm saying a middle 20% or so that don't hate him (or like/love him) will shift his way if those things get done, all just because he'll be "getting stuff done" and appear to be finally "draining the swamp". 

How would passing a historically unpopular healthcare bill improve his approval ratings by 20 points??

Ask Obama. More the spending cuts and HOW healthcare is reformed too.  This really isn't a bold prediction.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

It also isn't in line with why people disapprove of Trump. It's not policy-related. On top of that, America isn't currently clamoring for cuts to social programs or crappier healthcare. Even if Trump's intense character deficits, perceived corruption and generally dishonest nature weren't turning so many people against him, I don't get why chronically unpopular policy proposals would suddenly right the ship.

I'm saying a middle 20% or so that don't hate him (or like/love him) will shift his way if those things get done, all just because he'll be "getting stuff done" and appear to be finally "draining the swamp". 

How would passing a historically unpopular healthcare bill improve his approval ratings by 20 points??

Ask Obama. More the spending cuts and HOW healthcare is reformed too.  This really isn't a bold prediction.

You think Obama got a 20-point bump from passing ACA (or, well, ever?)  Go look at his Gallup approval history.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

It also isn't in line with why people disapprove of Trump. It's not policy-related. On top of that, America isn't currently clamoring for cuts to social programs or crappier healthcare. Even if Trump's intense character deficits, perceived corruption and generally dishonest nature weren't turning so many people against him, I don't get why chronically unpopular policy proposals would suddenly right the ship.

I'm saying a middle 20% or so that don't hate him (or like/love him) will shift his way if those things get done, all just because he'll be "getting stuff done" and appear to be finally "draining the swamp". 

How would passing a historically unpopular healthcare bill improve his approval ratings by 20 points??

Ask Obama. More the spending cuts and HOW healthcare is reformed too.  This really isn't a bold prediction.

Obama's approval ratings were remarkably static throughout his presidency so I'm not sure he's a good model for Trump.

And the point is that Trump is so unpopular right now with the middle 20% because of the healthcare and tax reform bills he's supported. And touching entitlements, something which is just as unpopular and what doomed W Bush's presidency, won't gain him 20 points either.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/florida/president

Trump's favorables went from 41-57 to 39-53 in Florida. Looks like he's gone down since election night 2016, when he was already in a very precarious situation and only saved by a super unpopular dem candidate.

Trump on track to lose bigly in 2018.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

You sound very out of touch with the average american voter.

Cutting spending would hurt Trump's approvals. The average american loves tax cuts and loves government spending. How the hell would cutting spending make Trump's approvals go up. People (unfortunately) hardly care about the national debt.

Just look at how the Obamacare repeal went. At some point, the approval for that health care plan was 20% approval 60% disapproval.

[King Lear]

Latest Rassmusen survey:
Approval: 45%
Disapproval: 53%
These numbers seem very accurate (Rassmusen was the only pollster that nailed the election last year), and prove what I believe that Trump is maintaining the support of all the people that voted for him last year. And by the way anyone that believes trumps going to lose Florida needs to do some research on the state, its demographics are a perfect fit for trump because it has a large old, wealthy, white, population that votes overwhelmingly republican and a lot of minority's that don't vote.

[Pericles]

Trump's 37.6% in 538 and 39.3% in RCP no reason for anyone to think he's in a good position.

[Old Man Willow]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

It's not possible for Trump to get 55% approval, let alone 60%. He is too widely loathed.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Latest Rassmusen survey:
Approval: 45%
Disapproval: 53%
These numbers seem very accurate (Rassmusen was the only pollster that nailed the election last year), and prove what I believe that Trump is maintaining the support of all the people that voted for him last year. And by the way anyone that believes trumps going to lose Florida needs to do some research on the state, its demographics are a perfect fit for trump because it has a large old, wealthy, white, population that votes overwhelmingly republican and a lot of minority's that don't vote.

florida's electorate is 62% white (was around 66% white in 2012)

again king lear proving he knows nothing about individual states

[pbrower2a]

ARG, New Hampshire. 26% approval, 66% disapproval.

One small state, but monstrous statistics.The state is nearly neutral in PVI, but it is about 16% away from being 50-50 in a 50-50 election.  

Minnesota. PPP.  44-53. Trump actually has a slight, if statistically insignificant improvement here. 44-53. Minnesota seems to never swing much. Trump seems to do unusually well for a Republican there. Not so many people as tenants? I would guess that if one is a tenant, Donald Trump reminds one of his landlord.  

Florida, Gravis... it's a favorability poll. Sometimes 'favorability' is asked in a manner that is practically identical to approval, but I found no link.

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much.

An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14%, but my measure (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election.  
 
  

Fifteen states with recent polls... slightly fewer than one third of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South. I might expect things to be closer to normal in New York and New England except for Maine and new Hampshire, and I have nothing on the High Plains or Texas.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 12/27

Approve 38
Disapprove 56

No change from the previous day.