AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Virginiá]

To an extent. But if the two Senate elections were happening at the same time and if Sinema was lucky enough to be facing Ward or Flake, there's a good chance that the Sinema vs. whoever race would take up most of the attention and if it turned into a rout, there's a high chance that Stanton would be helped across the finish line. Kinda like how Fred Thompson helped Frist across the line in 1994. And Gillibrand and Schumer were within the same margin of each other in 2010. Lindsey Graham only lost support off of Tim Scott from conservatives.

Is there anyone else besides Stanton who could run if McCain's seat opened up at the same time?

[Virginiá]

The problem many Dems in the legislature face, is when they run for higher office, their opposition asks what they go done in the legislature, and do to the trifecta in AZ which doesn't allow any Dem bills to pass, the answer is usually nothing causing them to be labeled as a do nothing.

I don't understand why that would be a unique problem to Arizona. There are plenty of states where Democrats don't have legislative power, yet still can win executive races. Same for Republicans (vice versa). The point would be to articulate why they have better ideas, and that the opposition's ideas and legislative experience is clearly not helping the state.

[Virginiá]

I think the GOP has totally screwed the pooch on this one. Ward might well win the primary, which will make the race even tougher for them.


Of course, even with he Dems picking up both NV and AZ, the GOP could balance that out by winning on Dem turf, but I'd say that the Dems have a good chance of at least going neutral or +1 (I'm assuming MO-SEN is a likely GOP pickup) if they pick up those two seats, which is far better than they have any reason to hope for.

Strategically speaking, the best chance the GOP would have had in making huge gains would have been to back off and let Hillary take the White House (assuming they had that much control - they didn't). Any midterm under a Republican president would make large gains difficult, as you can't expect elections like 2002 to happen again. Midterms are just too favorable to out-party incumbents. If Hillary had won, Republicans could have capitalized on a extremely favorable map and possibly built a Senate supermajority by 2020, along with locking down control of redistricting en masse for the 2020s. The early 2020s could have seen a deluge of conservative policy under a competent Republican president. Oh well!

Of course, I guess some would say the presidency is worth losing all that, but in this particular instance I would have to disagree. Winning the White House this time is a curse that Republicans will regret for a long, long time.

[Virginiá]

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

I mean, Flake barely won his first election. I'd say there is some room for a Democrat to win, especially if Flake loses his primary.

[Virginiá]

Holy smokes!

[Virginiá]

Wow. Was not expecting that.

Rating moves from Toss-Up to Lean D, though I'll reconsider if an alternative establishment candidate enters, and my endorsement remains up for grabs. Arizona's senate primary isn't until August '18.

I expect the fight for this to be quite vicious

[Virginiá]

If Flake, the Republican incumbent Senator resigning is considered good for the GOP, then that might just go to show how bad their prospects in Arizona were looking already. An open seat in a competitive state in what is almost surely going to be a bad year for them is the last thing Republicans should want.

[Virginiá]

Let's keep things friendly please.

[Virginiá]

Guys, do you actually think debating with a user named "60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED" is going to yield any success or insight? I mean, and believe it or not but I say this with no malice intended, but ahugecat is exceedingly arrogant and stubborn in his opinions. There is literally nothing to be gained by arguing with him except if you wish to see more than one version of his argument.

and ahugecat please keep in mind that these are open discussion threads for everyone and not just one or two users to monopolize conversation and/or derail the thread entirely.

[Virginiá]

ahugecat is filling the role EnglishPete and Seriously? have left behind. He is a righteous Christian warrior fighting against the tyranny of the left.

It's more enjoyable for everyone when it's people like you doing it tho

Well the thing about Santander is he usually just drops a sly comment or two and that's it. Judging by the speed of some his responses, I think ahugecat actually refreshes the page over and over again to pounce on the next post/response.

If he wants to vigorously debate one or more users, he should create his own thread for that. Hijacking someone else's thread or a community megathread is unacceptable, and that applies to any user who feels the need to flood a thread or otherwise agitate everyone participating in it.