CA-SEN 2022: The thread about Kamala's likely replacement

[Mike Thick]

Padilla is the heavy favorite IMO. Neither Becerra nor Lee would be shocking, though, for various reasons.

[Mike Thick]

Here’s how I see it:
 - Padilla has been angling for this for a long time. He wants it. He’s got the fundraising chops to kick ass statewide, he would be the first Latino Senator from Cali, and his appointment would be a “concession” of one Senate seat by NorCal Dems to SoCal Dems. He has two more critical advantages: he’s tight with Newsom personally, and unlike some (mainly one) other options, he’s young enough to rack up decades of seniority.
 - The main thing Barbara Lee has going for her is going to be backing from out-of-state Black pols and progressives. The optics of appointing a man to a woman’s seat are admittedly ehhh, but I’m not sold that she’s a likely pick yet. She’s in her mid-70’s, meaning she likely wouldn’t last more than one term or two at most, and she’s never won statewide.
 - On paper, Becerra is a solid choice for many of the same reasons Padilla is. While his selection wouldn’t surprise me per se, I’m not convinced that his endgame is a return to Washington, especially since he left as a powerful House leader and would be returning as a freshman.
 - Nobody else strikes me as particularly likely. Kounalakis might be viable if she pushed herself but I think she has eyes on 2026-Gov. Same with Garcetti except I think he’s gunning for Biden Cabinet, Feinstein’s seat, or one then the other.

[Mike Thick]

[snip]

Do you think there's any chance of Newsom appointing somebody like Brown as a placeholder so that the 2022 election is open? Or would he definitely appoint somebody (like Padilla, Becerra, or Lee) who'd likely be interested in seeking re-election to the seat?

There are upsides and downsides of both. Newsom wants to run for President, and giving the seat to somebody who wants reelection can be a favor to people who can help get him there: Padilla pleases Latino groups and gives him a reliable ally at a national level, Lee pleases Black groups and progressives. Conversely, possible that each pick pisses the opposite side’s boosters off. My guess is that a placeholder would be seen as a punt and wouldn’t make anyone happy.

[Mike Thick]

Padilla has the infrastructure, but I feel like his chances are dependent on how CA runs the 2020 election. If it's a shambles, and the ballots take as long to count as they did in the primary, then he's dead in the water.

The issue I have with this is that CA always a long time to count. It's not a problem unique to Padilla's tenure, and it certainly won't draw as much attention as counting issues in swing states (likely to be far more contested, since they don't have the VBM infrastructure we do).

Also, why are we talking about Maryland in the California thread lmao

[Mike Thick]

Lockout would require
 - Great environment for Rs
 - Tons of Dems  get the financial backing (massive obstacle) to compete statewide
 - Rs have two non-gadfly candidates who can fundraise well (even bigger obstacle)
 - Lack of gadfly Rs to siphon off vote as has happened in recent years

Majority party lockout is more likely in smaller races, where it’s easier for more candidates to compete with less resources. If that pattern breaks, I doubt it breaks in a high-profile Senate race

[Mike Thick]

I'm really not sure how people think it's anyone besides Alex Padilla at this point. Maybe a month or two ago I had some doubt but not anymore

[Mike Thick]

Yeah. Been all but over for months, but now it’s official
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1341433025335201794?s=21

[Mike Thick]

First person hinting at a challenge is Rep. Ro Khanna
https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1341519647728836608?s=21

[Mike Thick]

Eh, he's inoffensive.

But as a Newsom fan, I'll be really irritated if he doesn't pick a placeholder for one of AG or SoS or Possible Feinstein replacement or Replacement for possible Feinstein replacement.

It'd be really boring if 3 of the statewide races in 2022 will be won by coronated Newsom appointees.

Well, Shirley Weber is kind of a placeholder in that she probably won't run in 2026. Seems like a "pick a black woman" + "keep Lorena Gonzalez out of power" move more than anything.

Rob Bonta, if those rumors are true, would absolutely not be a placeholder AG. Farthest possible thing from it.