CA-SEN 2022: The thread about Kamala's likely replacement

[MT Treasurer]

You think VT could flip?

If you told me that one deep blue state would flip in 2022 and I had to guess which one, VT would probably be my pick. I’m not saying it will happen, but I could see someone like Scott eking out a win if Leahy retires/there’s a special election and the national environment is a disaster for Democrats.

Well, either that or Hogan pulling off another upset (less likely).

[NewYorkExpress]

You think VT could flip?

If you told me that one deep blue state would flip in 2022 and I had to guess which one, VT would probably be my pick. I’m not saying it will happen, but I could see someone like Scott eking out a win if Leahy retires/there’s a special election and the national environment is a disaster for Democrats.

Well, either that or Hogan pulling off another upset (less likely).

The more likely open Senate seat in Vermont is Sanders dying or getting appointed to the cabinet.

Hogan isn't winning in Maryland barring a truly awful candidate (so basically Delaney in terms who might actually run.)

The most likely flips in terms of Democratic controlled seats are Arizona (Kelly winning this year is pretty much a done deal), Illinois (Duckworth might find herself in the cabinet, and Republicans have flipped open Illinois seats before), New Hampshire (Hassan's not only vulnerable if Sununu runs, though he would be the strongest candidate) and Georgia if Democrats win the special this year (which seems unlikely at present).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We should wait til the Election is over, since we will have a lame duck session

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Padilla is the name I've seen a lot, though I can see Newsome appointing himself or a woman, maybe like London Breed, Kounalakis, or several house members.

I don't think Newsom would be stupid enough to risk falling victim to the evident political curse that has been Governors appointing themselves to the Senate.

Interesting read. But with the latest example being nearly 45 years ago, I don't buy it. Are there any recent examples? I was thinking Manchin had done this but I just checked and forgot he did not appoint himself, instead he did a placeholder and ran when it was open.

If Newsom is superstitious, than a placeholder Brown appointment makes sense.

Not a direct example, but Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski appointed his daughter to a vacant Senate seat. She was a state legislator but it still rubbed people the wrong way, and 4 years later Murkowski was defeated in a landslide by Wasilla mayor Sarah Palin.

If Newsom wants the seat, a placeholder makes much more sense. It could be Jerry Brown or another elder statesman, or it could be some other obvious placeholder. Someone equivalent to Senators Ted Kaufman, Carte Goodwin, etc.

The only problem therein for Newsom is the possibility of Brown deciding he likes being in the Senate enough to run for the full term (which he'd win pretty damn easily). Sure, he'd be 90 by the end of it, but this is Moonbeam we're talking about here, so no possibility should be completely written off.

Where’s the problem there? Newson probably gets an open seat in 2028 in that case.

[Person Man]

I gave the troll answer that actually got the second most responses. If the governor can just pick someone, I think that is what he should do.

[Roronoa D. Law]

It's a seat in California and I understand this board loves how Katie Porter tells it straight on MSNBC. But I am still in the camp that it should be a Hispanic or Asian nominee and Newsom has a lot of stellar people to choose from. 

[Figueira]

The more likely open Senate seat in Vermont is Sanders dying or getting appointed to the cabinet.

I don't see Sanders getting appointed to the cabinet, and while he could certainly die, so could Leahy, who is just as old as Sanders.

That said, I don't see Republicans picking up a Senate seat in Vermont either way. The 2022 map does not look good for them (although it's important to remember that for Democrats to really lock up 2022, they need to win seats other than AZ and GA-special).

[brucejoel99]

Padilla is the name I've seen a lot, though I can see Newsome appointing himself or a woman, maybe like London Breed, Kounalakis, or several house members.

I don't think Newsom would be stupid enough to risk falling victim to the evident political curse that has been Governors appointing themselves to the Senate.

Interesting read. But with the latest example being nearly 45 years ago, I don't buy it. Are there any recent examples? I was thinking Manchin had done this but I just checked and forgot he did not appoint himself, instead he did a placeholder and ran when it was open.

If Newsom is superstitious, than a placeholder Brown appointment makes sense.

Not a direct example, but Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski appointed his daughter to a vacant Senate seat. She was a state legislator but it still rubbed people the wrong way, and 4 years later Murkowski was defeated in a landslide by Wasilla mayor Sarah Palin.

If Newsom wants the seat, a placeholder makes much more sense. It could be Jerry Brown or another elder statesman, or it could be some other obvious placeholder. Someone equivalent to Senators Ted Kaufman, Carte Goodwin, etc.

The only problem therein for Newsom is the possibility of Brown deciding he likes being in the Senate enough to run for the full term (which he'd win pretty damn easily). Sure, he'd be 90 by the end of it, but this is Moonbeam we're talking about here, so no possibility should be completely written off.

Where’s the problem there? Newson probably gets an open seat in 2028 in that case.

Lots of potential problems, as opposed to being able to run for it in 2022: for all we know, by 2028, Newsom's an unpopular Governor &/or somebody else credibly rises within California Democratic politics to such an extent that they could beat him.

[Greedo punched first]

It's a seat in California and I understand this board loves how Katie Porter tells it straight on MSNBC. But I am still in the camp that it should be a Hispanic or Asian nominee and Newsom has a lot of stellar people to choose from. 

Is Porter a mainstream progressive like John Chiang, or is she an anti-establishment Emerald Coast type?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Now we have all the Senate replacement threads, can we all wait til she is elected. Its gonna be pressure for Ds to appoint a female of color.

But with DC statehood looming, there isn't a need for that, people of color in a 51/49 Senate AA are gonna happen anyways

Schiff, Swalwell whom has newborn babies and Jerry Brown whom is Market arent vying for it

[SevenEleven]

Who would win Orange County in a Padilla-Lee runoff?

Not Lee, for literally all of these questions.

Who wins Humboldt County in such a runoff?

Padilla. Lee maybe wins some Bay Area counties, that's it.

[Greedo punched first]

Who would win Orange County in a Padilla-Lee runoff?

Not Lee, for literally all of these questions.

Who wins Humboldt County in such a runoff?

Padilla. Lee maybe wins some Bay Area counties, that's it.

Lee also wins Humboldt and Mendocino.

[SevenEleven]

Who would win Orange County in a Padilla-Lee runoff?

Not Lee, for literally all of these questions.

Who wins Humboldt County in such a runoff?

Padilla. Lee maybe wins some Bay Area counties, that's it.

Lee also wins Humboldt and Mendocino.

Highly doubtful, Humboldt and Mendocino voted for DeLeon.

[Greedo punched first]

Who would win Orange County in a Padilla-Lee runoff?

Not Lee, for literally all of these questions.

Who wins Humboldt County in such a runoff?

Padilla. Lee maybe wins some Bay Area counties, that's it.

Lee also wins Humboldt and Mendocino.

Highly doubtful, Humboldt and Mendocino voted for DeLeon.

No. They voted for de Leon because he was the most left wing. Lee is more left wing than Padilla. I knew Feinstein would lose the Emerald Coast due to being more moderate. De Leon counties Padilla wins include Imperial and Merced.

[Figueira]

If Xavier Becerra was appointed to this seat, who would become AG?

[Greedo punched first]

If Xavier Becerra was appointed to this seat, who would become AG?

Newsom would appoint one.

[Figueira]

If Xavier Becerra was appointed to this seat, who would become AG?

Newsom would appoint one.

I know (that's how Becerra became AG in the first place) but I'm wondering who he would appoint.

[Mike Thick]

Here’s how I see it:
 - Padilla has been angling for this for a long time. He wants it. He’s got the fundraising chops to kick ass statewide, he would be the first Latino Senator from Cali, and his appointment would be a “concession” of one Senate seat by NorCal Dems to SoCal Dems. He has two more critical advantages: he’s tight with Newsom personally, and unlike some (mainly one) other options, he’s young enough to rack up decades of seniority.
 - The main thing Barbara Lee has going for her is going to be backing from out-of-state Black pols and progressives. The optics of appointing a man to a woman’s seat are admittedly ehhh, but I’m not sold that she’s a likely pick yet. She’s in her mid-70’s, meaning she likely wouldn’t last more than one term or two at most, and she’s never won statewide.
 - On paper, Becerra is a solid choice for many of the same reasons Padilla is. While his selection wouldn’t surprise me per se, I’m not convinced that his endgame is a return to Washington, especially since he left as a powerful House leader and would be returning as a freshman.
 - Nobody else strikes me as particularly likely. Kounalakis might be viable if she pushed herself but I think she has eyes on 2026-Gov. Same with Garcetti except I think he’s gunning for Biden Cabinet, Feinstein’s seat, or one then the other.

[brucejoel99]

Here’s how I see it:
 - Padilla has been angling for this for a long time. He wants it. He’s got the fundraising chops to kick ass statewide, he would be the first Latino Senator from Cali, and his appointment would be a “concession” of one Senate seat by NorCal Dems to SoCal Dems. He has two more critical advantages: he’s tight with Newsom personally, and unlike some (mainly one) other options, he’s young enough to rack up decades of seniority.
 - The main thing Barbara Lee has going for her is going to be backing from out-of-state Black pols and progressives. The optics of appointing a man to a woman’s seat are admittedly ehhh, but I’m not sold that she’s a likely pick yet. She’s in her mid-70’s, meaning she likely wouldn’t last more than one term or two at most, and she’s never won statewide.
 - On paper, Becerra is a solid choice for many of the same reasons Padilla is. While his selection wouldn’t surprise me per se, I’m not convinced that his endgame is a return to Washington, especially since he left as a powerful House leader and would be returning as a freshman.
 - Nobody else strikes me as particularly likely. Kounalakis might be viable if she pushed herself but I think she has eyes on 2026-Gov. Same with Garcetti except I think he’s gunning for Biden Cabinet, Feinstein’s seat, or one then the other.

Do you think there's any chance of Newsom appointing somebody like Brown as a placeholder so that the 2022 election is open? Or would he definitely appoint somebody (like Padilla, Becerra, or Lee) who'd likely be interested in seeking re-election to the seat?

[Greedo punched first]

I don't know if Lee can win statewide.

[Mike Thick]

[snip]

Do you think there's any chance of Newsom appointing somebody like Brown as a placeholder so that the 2022 election is open? Or would he definitely appoint somebody (like Padilla, Becerra, or Lee) who'd likely be interested in seeking re-election to the seat?

There are upsides and downsides of both. Newsom wants to run for President, and giving the seat to somebody who wants reelection can be a favor to people who can help get him there: Padilla pleases Latino groups and gives him a reliable ally at a national level, Lee pleases Black groups and progressives. Conversely, possible that each pick pisses the opposite side’s boosters off. My guess is that a placeholder would be seen as a punt and wouldn’t make anyone happy.

[rhg2052]

It's a seat in California and I understand this board loves how Katie Porter tells it straight on MSNBC. But I am still in the camp that it should be a Hispanic or Asian nominee and Newsom has a lot of stellar people to choose from. 

Is Porter a mainstream progressive like John Chiang, or is she an anti-establishment Emerald Coast type?

More of a mainstream progressive, she's sort of a protege of Elizabeth Warren.

[Greedo punched first]

It's a seat in California and I understand this board loves how Katie Porter tells it straight on MSNBC. But I am still in the camp that it should be a Hispanic or Asian nominee and Newsom has a lot of stellar people to choose from. 

Is Porter a mainstream progressive like John Chiang, or is she an anti-establishment Emerald Coast type?

More of a mainstream progressive, she's sort of a protege of Elizabeth Warren.

That is what John Chiang is like.

[Canis]

It's a seat in California and I understand this board loves how Katie Porter tells it straight on MSNBC. But I am still in the camp that it should be a Hispanic or Asian nominee and Newsom has a lot of stellar people to choose from. 

Is Porter a mainstream progressive like John Chiang, or is she an anti-establishment Emerald Coast type?

More of a mainstream progressive, she's sort of a protege of Elizabeth Warren.

That is what John Chiang is like.

nice

[Torrain]

Garcetti is tight with Bidenworld (see his role on the VP selection team), so I think he'll hold out for a cabinet position.

Newson is savvy enough that I doubt he would appoint Moonbeam to the Senate. Replacing Harris with an old white guy can't do him any favours in 2020, and looks transparently like he's keeping the seat warm for his own run.

Padilla has the infrastructure, but I feel like his chances are dependent on how CA runs the 2020 election. If it's a shambles, and the ballots take as long to count as they did in the primary, then he's dead in the water.

If I were a betting man, my money would be on Becerra. He's got the experience to hit the ground running, and spend a couple of terms as a highly effective member of the body. I guess the only problem is that he may want to stick around now that he's come home from Washington to be CA AG.

One person who it almost certainly won't be, is Karen Bass...