Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election

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Rasmussen 10/12/05:

Jerry Kilgore (R) 46%
Tim Kaine (D) 44%
Russell Potts (I) 1%
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October 12, 2005--The televised debate is over and the race to replace Mark Warner as Virginia Governor remains too close to call. Republican Jerry Kilgore attracts 46% of the statewide vote while Democrat Tim Kaine earns 44%.

Two weeks ago, the two leading candidates were tied at 45%.

Jerry Kilgore has been at 45% or 46% in four of the six Rasmussen Reports Virginia election polls this year. Once, he was above that at 47% and once below that at 43%.

Kaine's support was at 39% to 41% in the first four Rasmussen Reports Virginia election polls. His numbers have improved a bit for the two most recent election polls.

Independent candidate Russell Potts attracts just one percent (1%) of the statewide vote.

Just 53% of Virginia's Likely Voters have read, seen, or heard any news stories about Sunday night's televised debate. A plurality of those had watched little or none of the debate as it was televised.

Among those who had heard about the debate, 40% thought Kaine won while 34% thought Kilgore did a better job. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Kaine supporters thought their man won. Seventy-three (73%) of Kilgore supporters thought the same about their candidate.

Just 11% of all voters consider the debate very important in terms of impacting their vote.

Since the election is drawing closer, Rasmussen Reports made a slight change in the methodology for this survey compared to earlier Virginia election polls.

The methodological change had little impact on the relative support for Kilgore and Kaine, but it sharply diminished support for Russell Potts. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of those who initially said they would vote for Potts answered a follow-up question indicating they would vote for either Kilgore or Kaine.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of Virginia voters Approve of the way that Warner is performing his duties as Governor. Although the state typically leans Republican in national elections, just 50% of Virginia voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of Virginia voters have a favorable opinion of Kilgore. Fifty-six percent (56%) say the same about Kaine. Potts is viewed favorably by 28%.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

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The Kilgore campaign released two very powerful ads this week.  They could deal the final blow to Kaine.  IMO, they go a too far.  I think its a sad day when you have to exploit the murdered and their grieving families for political gain, but like they say, all is fair in love, war, and running for office.

Take a look...

First ad:  http://jerrykilgore.com/contents/media/videos/ads/stanley1.shtml
Second ad:  http://jerrykilgore.com/contents/media/videos/ads/stanley2.shtml

Third ad:  http://jerrykilgore.com/contents/media/videos/ads/kelly1.shtml

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This might give him Kilgore the edge to win which is what I hope happens.

Why do you support Kilgore?  Just curious...

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Why would the ad be on TV in Wisconsin?

They are obviously very controversial ad's.  Kilgore is exploiting dead people and grieving families for political gain.

For the record.  I wouldnt support these ad's comming from a Democrat either.  They will be highly effective, but I still think they go a little too far.

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Little bit of an Update:

The first ad attacks Kaine for voluntarily defending the murderer.  Thats completely false. Tim Kaine was court-appointed.  Second, apparently both of the people murdred in the first ad were involved in a drug deal gone bad.

You can view Kaine's response ad here:

http://kaine2005.org/media/tv/whereistand_player.swf

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I agree with states and AuH2O.  However, I have more sympathy for a couple gunned down in their home for no reason over a couple that is voluntarily involved in a drug transaction.  Dont get me wrong, I feel for both, but Couple A had no say in their destiny, however, Couple B did.

I also agree that this could be the final blow for Kaine.  If Kaine doesnt get on the attack ASAP, he's done.  IMO, he should get a spot running on Kilgores term as Secretary of Public Safety in which prison breaks were up 300%.  Probably wont be enough though.

One more thing, Kaine's response is horrible.

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Ive heard he's an right leaning Independent.  I distinctly remember reading that somewhere.

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Kaine has a new response to Kilgores 'Stanley' ad.  He also put out an ad titled 'Kilgores Sugar Daddy', which criticizes Kilgore for excepting 600,000 dollars from a drug company under investigation for Medicaid fraud.  The new response is much better than the first two, but still pretty weak.  The 'Sugar Daddy ad' is catchy, but wont make much of an impact, IMO.

Check out the new ad's here:

http://www.kaine2005.org/media/tv/

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New SUSA Poll 10/17/05:

Kaine 47%
Kilgore 45%
Potts 4%
Other 2%
Undecided 2%
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Analysis: In an election for Governor of Virginia today, 10/17/05, 3 weeks to the vote, the outcome between Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Jerry Kilgore is too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 750 likely Virginia voters, conducted for WSLS-TV in Roanoke and WUSA-TV in Washington DC. Kaine today gets 47% of the vote, up 4 points from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago. Kilgore gets 45% today, down 1 point in 4 weeks. Independent Russ Potts is unchanged at 4%. In 4 polls since 6/30/05, Kilgore has steadily declined, going from a 10-point advantage in June to a 2-point deficit today. Election day is November 8th. Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is term limited; the Governor's seat is open. Kilgore gets 81% of the Republican vote. Kaine gets 90% of the Democrat vote. Kilgore leads by 8 points among men, unchanged from last month. Kaine today leads by 12 points among women, up 10 points in the past 4 weeks, up 17 points from SurveyUSA's first tracking poll in June. Kaine support strongest among most educated voters, pro-choice voters, and voters in urban areas and D.C. suburbs. Kilgore leads by 61 points among conservatives, but trails by 34 points among moderates.

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My guess:  The political climate in general isnt too friendly for Republicans right now and undecided voters are breaking for Kaine.  Bush compounded the problem with the Miers nomination which will depress conservative turnout (these people just arent that motivated right now).  The smear campaign seems to be backfiring too.  Apparently voters are not welcoming negative ad's from either candidate.  It will all come down to GOTV.  Kaine will need to be polling at least 3-4 points ahead by election day or he will come up short.

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Although this morning their are "rumours" floating around that Potts is getting ready to leave the race and endorse Kaine.  (Potts is denying the rumours, but apparently some of the so-called "rumours" are coming from inside Potts' campaign). 

If Potts does leave the race that will help Kaine, a great deal, IMO. (And to think a week ago I was ready to write Kaine, off).   

Where did you hear these 'rumors'?

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Another VA Poll (Hotline):

Kaine sports a 2-pt lead over Kilgore among registered voters; Kilgore leads by a point among likelies. Education and transportation are the most important issues. Dems seem to be more enthused about their guy than GOPers are about theirs.

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Couple of updates:

Kilgore has 2 new spots out.  The first is Senator Allen endorsing Jerry Kilgore for Governor.  The second, basically a Kilgore Biography ad.

Kilgore Ad:  http://jerrykilgore.com/contents/media/videos/ads/domesticviolence.shtml
Sen. Allen Ad:  http://jerrykilgore.com/contents/media/videos/ads/allen.shtml
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One more thing, it looks like Kilgore is taking a play out of the 'Warner for Governor' playbook.  This weekend at the Nextel Cup Subway 500 in Martinsville,  Hermie Sadler will be driving the "Kilgore For Governor" car.

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They'll probably just cheer if Sadler wrecks the car.  NASCAR fans love wrecks.  At least my parents do.

I get what your saying though.  The car wrecking would be a bad omen.

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Kilgore up 2% - Mason Dixon Poll.

VIRGINIA GOVERNOR
Kilgore 44%
Kaine 42%

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Rasmussen Poll 10/24/05

Kilgore 48%
Kaine 46%
Potts 2%

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Some interesting news...  According to some sources Warner has pulled the plug on Kaine for Governor.

From Outside The Beltway:

We have learned here at CW, from sources involved with the General Assembly and close to a high ranking Warner administration official, some amazing news.

At the Governor's senior staff meeting this morning, the decision was made to "pull the plug" on Tim Kaine's campaign. No more will Warner assist the Kaine campaign in major ways. No more public appearances, etc.

According to our sources, Warner is said to have no interest in seeing to fruition, a Tim Kaine Administration. Aides apparently believe that a Kaine administration would steal the limelight from potential Presidential candidate, Gov. Mark Warner. Stay tuned...this should be interesting.

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Kaine was involved in the murder?!?!?!?!

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Kaine and Kilgore both put out some new ad's this week.  Check em' out.

Kaine:

http://www.kaine2005.org/media/tv/

Kilgore:

http://jerrykilgore.com/contents/media/videos/ads/bounce.shtml
http://jerrykilgore.com/contents/media/videos/ads/outrageousgames.shtml
http://jerrykilgore.com/contents/media/videos/ads/transportationtruth.shtml

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Why doesnt Kaine call in Warner to back him up on illegal immigration?  Warner signed a bill a couple months ago that blocked illegal aliens from accessing public programs, which I supported by the way. 

Warner could really help on that issue if he jumped in and said Kaine worked with him on that one.

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Carl, are you a VA resident by any chance?

It really is a shame that VA has this single term limit.  I would have love to seen a Kilgore vs Warner race.

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Hey Carl, here's an ad for ya.

What part of illegal does Tim Kaine not understand?

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Deeds trailing McDonnell for Attorney General

I just received an email from Deeds for Attorney General...

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Funny Kaine animation.

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The Richmond Times Dispatch Endorsed McDonnell today...

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