Would Trump have won the electoral college if COVID never happened (or to a far smaller extent)?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I believe most important in this counterfactual is the opportunity cost of COVID taking away Trump's messaging on the economy. One has to think that Trump going into November hammering away constantly with "best economy ever", "lowest black unemployment ever", "brought jobs back to America", "four more years of the greatest economy you've ever seen" would have moved at least some votes, at least compared to his final messaging in real life which was something like "the virus is a hoax, reopen the country."

Even with the crisis Trump had an advantage on the economy over Biden, and it's a large part of why he nearly won despite everything. If growth was still solid in 2020 then I don't see how an incumbent with a good economy loses.