MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

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With the exception of one poll, she outperformed in 2012.. Akin was leading in random polls as late as mid-October.

I would not count McCaskill out yet. She won 55% of the despite, despite a decent libertarian candidate on the ballot also.

I know its controversial on Atlas, but we should not bother predicting elections past the upcoming cycle.

Agreed. We also have no jdea what the 2018 climate is like. Midterms don't go against the President's party 100% of the time.

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Of course she can win if Clinton is president - just like Ron Johnson "can" win reelection this year.

I certainly wouldn't have said Johnson was toast back in 2014. If McCaskill gets a decent opponent, 2018 starts looking like a bad year for Democrats, and she trails in every single poll, then her position will be comparable to Johnson's right now.

This. Meanwhile, if the Republicans nominated someone this year who looked like a favorite to beat the Democrat (maybe a weaker candidate than Clinton), and Wisconsin looked like a pure tossup or Lean R at the presidential level, and the Democrats had nominated Mary Burke or someone like that with Feingold sitting out, then it would be perfectly plausible for Johnson to win. I think that's a plausible alternate history with a POD in 2014.

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Of course she can win if Clinton is president - just like Ron Johnson "can" win reelection this year.

Congratulations, Senator McCaskill!

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Of course she can win if Clinton is president - just like Ron Johnson "can" win reelection this year.

Congratulations, Senator McCaskill!

How can you predict that right now? It is almost 24 months before the election occurs?

Also McCaskill is not far left despite what Republicans think. However, facts and statistics do not sway the far right. Look at her voting record.

I was mostly joking. But my point, which is that making these pronouncements way in advance doesn't make sense, is still valid. Even two months before this election, we thought Johnson was completely doomed.

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Well, let's operate under the hypothetical assumption that 2018 ends up being a Democratic year. One question we've never answered is, can an unpopular incumbent senator be defeated in a state that leans against that incumbent during a wave for that incumbent's party? Tom Wolf showed us that the answer is yes for governors, but I wonder how this pans out in a senatorial election.

Yeah, even in this Republican year, three Republican candidates (Ayotte, Kirk, Heck) lost.

Anyway:

Wagner Quits Leadership Posts, Signaling Potential Senate Run

2016 was a neutral year.

2018 is obviously not going to be a "Democratic wave year". The issue in 2010 or 2014 was not that people massively turned out against an unpopular Democratic administration, the issue was that Democrats simply didn't turn out at all and Republicans did. That's not likely to change in 2018. McCaskill is still in deep trouble, and so are Tester, Heitkamp, Donnelly, etc...

Midterms usually go against the incumbent party; this has been true for a long time with the only recent exceptions being 1998 and 2002.

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Every state that voted for Trump elected a Republican Senator this year. Something to keep in mind when you're predicting a Democratic wave in 2018.

2016 was a neutral year.

Lol, 2016 was far worse for Democrats than 2014.

I never said it wasn't "bad" for the Democrats; it was obviously awful for us. But in terms of the national mood on election day, it was neutral: Clinton narrowly won the popular vote, while House Republicans narrowly won the popular vote. Obviously the effect of this was disastrous for Democrats, but that doesn't mean it was a "Republican year."

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Is her name pronounced like the composer?

No, sadly.

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If Dems hold all Senate seats and take AZ and NV, how bad does that signal it is for the GOP? That they're losing 30-40 seats in the House and Trump's approval rating is in the 30s?

If that happens I'd expect Democrats to win the House, although it might be narrow.

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Wagner vs. McCaskill would be a SAFE R race.

No.

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Wagner voted for the AHCA, as did most Republican Reps who are plotting Senate runs in various states.

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Honestly one of the better Senators. I really hope she beats the Republican.

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Oh my...

If mccaskill wins reelection i cringe at the nationwide protests and violence from the GOP. 

only your party acts like a room full of children when you lose

Maybe our emotional reactions have something to do with the fact that we're not devoid of empathy for the people affected by policies, and therefore don't see this as a game.

EDIT: Also I'm not ageist unlike you.