Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 02, 2024, 09:32:27 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread (search mode)
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread  (Read 267705 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #25 on: January 05, 2021, 08:40:40 PM »
Warnock back at 64% win probability after a terrifying dip to 63% that lasted for several minutes.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #26 on: January 05, 2021, 08:42:42 PM »
Quote from: Monstro Believed in a Blue Georgia (and a Blue Texas) on January 05, 2021, 08:41:47 PM
Quote from: Crumpets on January 05, 2021, 08:40:40 PM
Warnock back at 64% win probability after a terrifying dip to 63% that lasted for several minutes.

We still taking political betting markets relavently?

This is according to THE NEEDLE.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #27 on: January 05, 2021, 08:50:16 PM »
« Edited: January 05, 2021, 08:55:37 PM by Crumpets »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on January 05, 2021, 08:45:59 PM
While I would have voted for Purdue myself, I have to say that IF Loeffler loses tonight, it will make for one happy PQG.  

Is there anything in particular you don't like about Loeffler beyond that she's robotic and probably more Trump-aligned than Perdue?
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #28 on: January 05, 2021, 08:51:33 PM »
Anybody know why Ossoff's needle numbers have gone down 3% in the last couple minutes while Warnock's have held steady?

EDIT: welp, not anymore! Smiley
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #29 on: January 05, 2021, 09:04:44 PM »
The needle just hit 67% for Warnock, which should be "leaning Warnock," but it still says "tilting." Anyways, better than 2:1 odds for Warnock now.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #30 on: January 05, 2021, 09:09:36 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on January 05, 2021, 09:05:08 PM
Quote from: Arch on January 05, 2021, 09:02:38 PM
Potential senators Warnock and Ossoff would be the best senate delegation of any state, hands down.

Ehhh.

Arizona and I don’t think it’s close.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #31 on: January 05, 2021, 09:11:09 PM »
The needle is at 69% for Warnock. Wink
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #32 on: January 05, 2021, 09:18:51 PM »
Quote from: Western Democrat on January 05, 2021, 09:13:32 PM
Ladies and gentlemen, say it with me: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell

"Now he knows what it's like to be a minority!"
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #33 on: January 05, 2021, 09:32:19 PM »
Interesting that the biggest D shifts so far seem to be in the Black Belt despite that being probably the fastest R trending part of the state. Low propensity black voters showing up for Warnock?
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #34 on: January 05, 2021, 09:58:20 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on January 05, 2021, 09:50:00 PM
Does anyone have Woodbury's post pledging to leave the forum for a year saved if Ossoff OR Warnock won? Because now that's already happened, doesn't even matter in the unlikely event Ossoff loses.

I'm not a huge fan of bets/pledges like this. If someone is smugly over-confident (as I was in 2016), I want them to get an albatross around their neck (or in their username/sig), not a vacation from the forum. Plus, we're already low on conservative voices as it is.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #35 on: January 05, 2021, 10:01:28 PM »
I may have missed this, but we're now officially at "probably Warnock"!
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #36 on: January 05, 2021, 10:06:11 PM »
Just for context of how rare of an occurrence we are seeing, the last time the Democrats had a trifecta, I had a girlfriend.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #37 on: January 05, 2021, 10:38:52 PM »
Quote from: LabourJersey on January 05, 2021, 10:34:00 PM
Quote from: KaiserDave on January 05, 2021, 10:32:05 PM
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on January 05, 2021, 10:31:04 PM
Quote from: KaiserDave on January 05, 2021, 10:19:24 PM
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on January 05, 2021, 10:17:53 PM
McConnell in particular 100% deserved losing his Senate majority after blocking the 2k checks. F*** him..



Are you looking forward to having the most powerful Senator?


Doubly hilarious as Manchin and West Virginia in general faces a lot of criticism on Atlas..

Unjustly!

West Virginia will surpass Delaware as the most politically relevant state of the Biden administration!

I can't wait for 2024 rentier state West Virginia, full of gleaming high rises and monuments.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #38 on: January 05, 2021, 11:16:38 PM »
🎶When will DeKalb drop, when will DeKalb drop?🎶
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #39 on: January 05, 2021, 11:19:15 PM »
The DeKalb votes pushed Ossoff from 93% to 94% on The Needle, so it looks like he did what he needed to there even if he's still narrowly down.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #40 on: January 05, 2021, 11:44:09 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on January 05, 2021, 11:24:01 PM
LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

How many times do we have to teach you this lesson young man?

But seriously, it seems like you have some personal beef with Georgia that goes beyond typical Atlas doomerism. Is there some personal history there?
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #41 on: January 05, 2021, 11:51:39 PM »
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #42 on: January 05, 2021, 11:59:42 PM »
Quote from: Lourdes on January 05, 2021, 11:55:38 PM


Who the heck was the Jewish Deep South Senator in the 1880s?
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #43 on: January 06, 2021, 12:03:39 AM »
Quote from: All eyes have seen the glory of the crushing of the Trump on January 06, 2021, 12:00:56 AM


Funny to see the Twitter disclaimer on a Wasserman Tweet.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #44 on: January 06, 2021, 12:07:59 AM »
Quote from: Use Your Illusion on January 06, 2021, 12:06:25 AM
Can someone please explain to me why people keep mentioning Manchin?

He's the most likely member of the Democratic caucus to object to a piece of progressive legislation in a 50-50 Senate. Biden and Schumer will probably have to cut a lot of deals with him to make sure he doesn't give the Republicans a 51st "no" vote on something like repealing Trump's tax cuts for the rich.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #45 on: January 06, 2021, 12:12:19 AM »
« Edited: January 06, 2021, 12:35:11 AM by Crumpets »
Quote from: Buzz on January 06, 2021, 12:06:49 AM
I'm more disappointed its my own state than anything else atm.  Also the fact that we are now perma-blue is disgusting.

I need to vomit.

Hey, I don't know much about you, but because you're posting on Atlas, I'm going to assume you're younger than the average American. If we're ever going to have a functioning two-party system again, it'll be because politically-engaged young conservatives make their voices heard within the Republican Party. fwiw, I know a lot of Biden voters who would have gladly voted for a Republican if the party looked more like young America. Biden is going to have a midterm in two years where Democrats will be facing an uphill battle. If I were you, I'd look into running for office and trying to make that change happen.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #46 on: January 06, 2021, 12:16:49 AM »
Current vote difference in the Ossoff-Perdue race is +1,869 to Perdue.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #47 on: January 06, 2021, 12:34:07 AM »
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #48 on: January 06, 2021, 12:42:14 AM »
Quote from: H. Ross Peron on January 06, 2021, 12:38:12 AM


Ossoff's election gives me hope that Millennials will be able to run for office despite a complete social media history accessible to the public.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,848
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #49 on: January 06, 2021, 12:53:20 AM »
Perdue lead now <1,000.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.033 seconds with 8 queries.