Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[libertpaulian]

lmao @ Cagle losing Rockdale by 30 points. I would've expected him to be winning that county, even in a loss.

There are Kemp signs all over Rockdale. I mean in actual yards and businesses. He had like three billboards along the interstate here. Cagle ceded everything east of DeKalb to Augusta.

If Abrams wins this fall, does Cagle run an "I toldja so!" campaign in 2022?

[libertpaulian]

Abrams has Metro ATL, the micro-cities, college towns, and black areas secured.  She just needs to make sure she doesn't get TOO crushed in rural areas.

[libertpaulian]

LMAO that "SHADY DAVID SHAFER" meme really worked:

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Geoff Duncan   278,750   50.1%   
David Shafer   277,110   49.9   

I HATE David Shafer! This warms my heart.

Has this race been moved from Likely to Lean Republican yet?

Why? I'm just curious.. Don't know much about either..

Slimy and corrupt, had his friends make some accusations of sexual harassing a lobbyist "go away" right before the election, and thought he was owed the seat. It's obnoxious when any politician thinks they deserve a seat due to whatever crap he or she has carried out for businesses and other politicians.

The first Abrams and Kemp attacks are in. I saw the Abrams commercial a couple of times this morning getting ready for work.

That quick? wow.

Abrams ad 7/10. Very good, but not great. The ad uses Kemp's own ads against him,which is genious, and some of those still shots are hilarious. But the ad fails to really grab viewer, and the news cycle at the beginning would have been better suited at the end.

Kemp ad 3/10 Its a typical scary ad, and poor at that. The focus on Hillary is actually bad considering this is one of the few states that trended D when the whole nation trended R. They seem to not use anything else other than she is a Radical D who will raise taxes, and is funded by Nancy Pelosi, like I havent heard that before. Not creative, and rather poor.(of course this ad was made by the RNC.)

The entire GOP strategy lately seems like nothing but telling people who blindly vote for them to start with whatever they want to hear to get them to turn out rather than putting even the tiniest effort into winning swing votes.

The GOP ad is indeed generic boring boilerplate, but the Dem ad is even worse. Re-running Kemp's ads which were what made him popular to begin with? I'm sure he thanks them for their contribution.

Cosigned. The Democratic ad also lacked a cohesive message. It was just a bunch of clips and it barely made sense. What message was it trying to send? That Kemp is conservative? That Casey Cagle doesn't like him?

The anti-Abrams ad was better?  What was the message...that she's propped up by coastal elitists and loved by Hillary? 

That's been the GOP's boilerplate message since 1992.

[libertpaulian]

The anti-Abrams ad was better?  What was the message...that she's propped up by coastal elitists and loved by Hillary?  

That's been the GOP's boilerplate message since 1992.

Unlike the anti-Kemp ad, that one actually tells you what it wants you to glean from the message. Whether it's an old message or not doesn't matter (in fact, I'd argue old messages that survive are even more effective).

Commercials are made first and foremost to stick in your head when they're not in front of you - other than some forgettable tune and Brian Kemp's own words, what is memorable or mnemonic about that ad?

That's precisely why the "SHADY DAVID SHAFER" attack campaign was so effective and ultimately cost him the race. Practically everybody in GA had heard about "SHADY DAVID SHAFER" between the time of the primary and the runoff. They probably couldn't tell you why he was shady, but they knew he was in fact "shady".

I suppose that's true as well.  Hopefully Abrams HQ gets the message that the ad sucks and comes up with something more effective.

[libertpaulian]

Thanks for the replies. I’m debating whether I want to go to Stacey’s watch party, attend something local, or stay at home. Election nights give me high anxiety.

I'd definitely go to an election party.  If Abrams ends up defying all odds, you'll want to be with people to celebrate!

[libertpaulian]

Just pointing out: this is the 4th visit to Whitfield County by Abrams since her campaign began (and 5th visit by her campaign).

So the Abrams campaigned first contacted the county party about this event on Monday morning. It may be different in metro ATL, but it is very hard to get a good crowd for anything in rural and Republican areas with 48 hours notice. I will say this is my biggest functional complaint about the campaign: they spring stuff without much notice at all (more so than the average statewide candidate).

Nevertheless, the county party used its email list and blasted a few thousand people with robocalls, and the Abrams campaign seemed to be running social media ads and blasting emails of the own.

The room reserved had 130 seats put out. In the end, 200 people showed up. In Dalton. With 2 days notice. With rain pouring. I can speak from personal experience that that is a very good and large crowd given the circumstances.

Were there voter registration people there, or at least people to make sure this crowd is registered?

[libertpaulian]

I hope Kemp runs a pure "MUH SOUTHRON CULTURE IZ BEIN DESTROYED BY COLOREDS AND KWEERS" campaign while Abrams sticks to bread-and-butter issues.  It would be a real test to determine Georgia's political direction.

[libertpaulian]

I hope Kemp runs a pure "MUH SOUTHRON CULTURE IZ BEIN DESTROYED BY COLOREDS AND KWEERS" campaign while Abrams sticks to bread-and-butter issues.  It would be a real test to determine Georgia's political direction.

Which southern culture has been destroyed? Slavery? Segregation? White privilege? Pretty disgraceful for a candidate to say or indicate something like this, but it again feds Trump's narrative "we against them".

His whole "I'm politically incorrect" and "I'm so conservative" schtick implies what I said.

[libertpaulian]

Georgia election officials knew system had ‘critical vulnerabilities’ before 2016 vote

I expect the Democrats will hammer Kemp on this.

John Barrow needs to hit this point home especially hard. 

[libertpaulian]

Did Allison Grimes recuse herself during the election against Cocaine Mitch in 2014?

[libertpaulian]

Ok, how do you all rank the statewide offices this year, from most to least likely to be won by a D?

Secretary of State
Lieutenant Governor
Governor
Attorney General

You think LG is more likely than GOV?

[libertpaulian]

If you're explaining, you're losing. Why even acknowledge their dumb ad?

The "ignore unfounded attack it goes away" strategy did work well for President Kerry

And the "constantly respond, apologize, and try to explain it away" strategy worked great for President Clinton, while the "ignore and refuse to apologize for any controversy, including legitimate ones" strategy worked out horribly for private citizen Donald Trump.

She seems to have made her "apologize and explain" ad and has now largely moved on.

[libertpaulian]

Bunch of new organizers joined the team today. At this point in the campaign four years ago, the field organizing staff was 70 percent Georgia residents/30 out-state residents this year it is 70/30 but in the complete reverse. The staff is already about double what it was when Carter ran with more joining next month.

Man, this is a campaign for the history books!

[libertpaulian]

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.

The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.

[libertpaulian]

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.

The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.

TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.

If she loses by more than Hillary did, then we can direct some sort of fault toward her.

If she loses by Hillary's margin or less, I consider it a moral victory, especially given GA's demographics.

[libertpaulian]

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.

The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.

TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.

Democratic bastions like Athens, Augusta, and Savannah are getting double or triple the paid field staff they had in 2016. The state party is not hurting for resources.  If Abrams loses (which she won’t ) it’s because she was always going to.

What do you think are the necessary demos for an Abrams victory?  Something like 57% white 43% non-white?

[libertpaulian]

What do you think are the necessary demos for an Abrams victory?  Something like 57% white 43% non-white?

I posted some numbers a few pages back, but as of today I think/hope she can do this:

White (59%) 25% of vote
Black (31%) 93% of vote
Latino (5%) 70% of vote
Asian (3%) 60% of vote
Other (2%) 55% of vote

I can't stress enough how expansive and far-reaching this field operation is in comparison to Jason Carter. They are digging in deep and this is just the state party's Coordinated Campaign promoting Abrams, Amico, and Democrats down the ballot. The Abrams apparatus themselves are paying people to do nothing but knock on doors for 10 hours a day, and they plan to reach out to 1 million on their own with no overlap with the 3 million voters the state party plans to touch.

And there are like a million political groups who are going to swarm into Georgia once Early Voting starts from trade unions, to AAPI interest groups, Black Pac, Black Economic Alliance, NARAL, Let America Vote, Emily's List, Mijente, National Domestic Workers Alliance, Working Families' Party, etc. Maybe I'm just hopped up on a high of Stacey Abrams but I just don't see how Kemp wins unless it goes to a run off.

Which it won't.

That's what I meant by "an Abrams victory."  She wins 50.01% (or more!) on Election Night in her own right without having to worry about December.  The next day she can plan what her inaugural party is going to be like.

[libertpaulian]

I haven't seen any presence from the Abrams campaign in UGA.

I know for a fact there's a Dawgs for Abrams student organization there. I'm not affiliated with it, so I don't know how well they promote it. Either way, four field organizers are being dispatched to Athens next week. With more on the way.

It exists but I don't see any outreach at all on campus.

Meanwhile the Turning Point dudes are always around.

Come to think of it, hardly any Kemp outreach either besides one guy I know.

Well, I don't think very many Turning Point cultists are going to be voting Abrams, lol.

[libertpaulian]

That's just the sneak peek of the generic R response if in fact the tape does come out.

If Kemp really does give a weaksauce response like that should such a tape be leaked, African-Americans in the ATL Metro and Black Belt will turn out in such record numbers that they'll be able to cancel out whatever rural rubes show up elsewhere.

[libertpaulian]

Completely meaningless stat for those who like number patterns: when I opened the page for this board just now, this thread had 2679 replies and 206079 views.  (And isn't it past time for a new thread?)

And let Washington continue to out-megathread us? Never!

Though I wouldn't be against merging this thread with a new one if the first post in the thread was the OP for the new thread; would give the option to edit thread title with new news and so forth. BK has left the forum as far as I know.

BK's most recent post was a few days ago.