Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

It wouldn't surprise me if Abrams won Gwinnett and Cobb. But that's not enough, as we saw with Hillary.

She'll be winning those while also turning out black voters downstate. The main PAC planning to flood the state with resources are exclusively focusing on turning out black voters in places in and around Macon, Columbus, Albany, Americus, Valdosta, and Savannah.

ETA: And Augusta and the band of rural majority black counties near it.

I'm skeptical that the votes are there (in those locations, specifically). Basically, Abrams needs everything to go in her favor (i.e. pull Clinton '16 margins in Georgia counties that swung to Clinton, and Obama '12 margins in the rest) - and then will still need an additional 70k votes on top of that to secure a majority (using the 2014 total turnout as a baseline here).

There are really only a few counties south of the metro where there is any meaningful population. The Fall Line/Black Belt (outside of Muscogee, Houston/Bibb, and Columbia/Richmond) is pretty empty. The space directly due north and south of that is as well. Of course the southern interior is empty and very hostile as well. There's the coast, of course (where I think some gains can be made)...but even if the votes can be mined out of those areas, it might only be enough to make up the difference between Carter/Nunn '14 and Obama '12 - meaning she would still need the 70k votes from elsewhere.

Sooner or later, I will be wrong - such the evolution of GA's urbanization and population growth - but I still don't believe that a Democrat can win statewide yet without true investment across the entire state (yes, that means on-the-ground activity in hostile North GA as well, which has taken almost an entire vote away for every vote gained statewide over the past 10 years).

A good example is to look at what Obama and Clinton did in NC and VA, which are comparably-sized: they had 30-50 offices across the entire state and sunk in tens of millions of dollars, along with hundreds of full-time staff. F[inks]ing Galax, VA (population 7,000) had a full-time field office that I passed by on the way to the DNC convention! By contrast, Georgia usually has 10 (opened by the DPG, with candidates who actually have resources basing themselves in the exact same areas). Until we see that kind of activity (which doesn't exist in GA yet; field offices opening in Dahlonega, Gainesville, Rome, Dalton, Jesup, Thomasville, etc), I'm unfortunately very skeptical.

I'm not trying to rain on the parade. I'm just frustrated as an active Democrat in a part of the state that gets neglected - despite it playing a huge role in why the state shifted to the GOP in the first place - and it's very difficult to work with minimal to no resources at the local level. Despite the fact that whites are more Democratic in this part of the state (at least averaged over the past decade) than anywhere else but the urban areas and there's huge Latino growth, it's written off as Red Hell when gains could be made that would significantly weaken GOP margins. I understand part of it is because Dems don't know how to campaign outside core areas anymore and another part is the lack of resources, but alas.

I understand your frustration. That's why I cooled off on Stacey Evans because I felt she would get lazy down the stretch and take certain areas for granted or throw in the towel on other areas. I believe Abrams will work for every vote she can from Dalton to Brunswick and everywhere in between. I certainly hope to see the DPG launch a massive field operation over the next few weeks. We have a huge hill to climb!

[Zaybay]

It wouldn't surprise me if Abrams won Gwinnett and Cobb. But that's not enough, as we saw with Hillary.

She'll be winning those while also turning out black voters downstate. The main PAC planning to flood the state with resources are exclusively focusing on turning out black voters in places in and around Macon, Columbus, Albany, Americus, Valdosta, and Savannah.

ETA: And Augusta and the band of rural majority black counties near it.

I'm skeptical that the votes are there (in those locations, specifically). Basically, Abrams needs everything to go in her favor (i.e. pull Clinton '16 margins in Georgia counties that swung to Clinton, and Obama '12 margins in the rest) - and then will still need an additional 70k votes on top of that to secure a majority (using the 2014 total turnout as a baseline here).

There are really only a few counties south of the metro where there is any meaningful population. The Fall Line/Black Belt (outside of Muscogee, Houston/Bibb, and Columbia/Richmond) is pretty empty. The space directly due north and south of that is as well. Of course the southern interior is empty and very hostile as well. There's the coast, of course (where I think some gains can be made)...but even if the votes can be mined out of those areas, it might only be enough to make up the difference between Carter/Nunn '14 and Obama '12 - meaning she would still need the 70k votes from elsewhere.

Sooner or later, I will be wrong - such the evolution of GA's urbanization and population growth - but I still don't believe that a Democrat can win statewide yet without true investment across the entire state (yes, that means on-the-ground activity in hostile North GA as well, which has taken almost an entire vote away for every vote gained statewide over the past 10 years).

A good example is to look at what Obama and Clinton did in NC and VA, which are comparably-sized: they had 30-50 offices across the entire state and sunk in tens of millions of dollars, along with hundreds of full-time staff. F[inks]ing Galax, VA (population 7,000) had a full-time field office that I passed by on the way to the DNC convention! By contrast, Georgia usually has 10 (opened by the DPG, with candidates who actually have resources basing themselves in the exact same areas). Until we see that kind of activity (which doesn't exist in GA yet; field offices opening in Dahlonega, Gainesville, Rome, Dalton, Jesup, Thomasville, etc), I'm unfortunately very skeptical.

I'm not trying to rain on the parade. I'm just frustrated as an active Democrat in a part of the state that gets neglected - despite it playing a huge role in why the state shifted to the GOP in the first place - and it's very difficult to work with minimal to no resources at the local level. Despite the fact that whites are more Democratic in this part of the state (at least averaged over the past decade) than anywhere else but the urban areas and there's huge Latino growth, it's written off as Red Hell when gains could be made that would significantly weaken GOP margins. I understand part of it is because Dems don't know how to campaign outside core areas anymore and another part is the lack of resources, but alas.

I understand your frustration. That's why I cooled off on Stacey Evans because I felt she would get lazy down the stretch and take certain areas for granted or throw in the towel on other areas. I believe Abrams will work for every vote she can from Dalton to Brunswick and everywhere in between. I certainly hope to see the DPG launch a massive field operation over the next few weeks. We have a huge hill to climb!

It does seem that Abrams' plan is a massive GOTV operation. So for you Prez Griff, she should invest some money in the area.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1021915221282226176

[Hammy]

With tonight's primary results Kemp effectively becomes the next Georgia governor.

[Zaybay]

With tonight's primary results Kemp effectively becomes the next Georgia governor.

Not true, but whatever.

[_]

With tonight's primary results Abrams effectively becomes the next Georgia governor as long as she puts effort all around the state as she seems to be planning to.

[IceSpear]

Wow. It's almost over and the margin has not shrunk at all. Cagle will barely end up cracking 30% despite getting 39% in the first round, LOL.

On top of that, the Lt. Governor guy who got 49% in the first round looks like he's going to narrowly lose. Crazy.

[Adam Griffin]

I understand your frustration. That's why I cooled off on Stacey Evans because I felt she would get lazy down the stretch and take certain areas for granted or throw in the towel on other areas. I believe Abrams will work for every vote she can from Dalton to Brunswick and everywhere in between. I certainly hope to see the DPG launch a massive field operation over the next few weeks. We have a huge hill to climb!

Truth be told, I did as well. I still voted for Evans simply because she was the "hometown girl", but the fact that Abrams visited my county 3 times in 2017 and once more before the primary (and Evans visited once in the summer of last year, because we asked) told me a lot of what I needed to know. I was very impressed with Abrams' initial efforts. I hate to say that we haven't seen any action since, but I'm a realist and I get why...but I'm definitely getting the feeling that 2018 is going to be "ignore the north" (from all candidates) above and beyond anything we've seen in past cycles - and I understand the argument/basis of why; I just don't think it's going to pan out how they think it will.

[Hammy]

With tonight's primary results Kemp effectively becomes the next Georgia governor.

Not true, but whatever.

People here love ignoring the fact that you need 50%+1 in Georgia to avoid a runoff--something Dems can't do because their voters have a habit of getting overconfident, deciding they won already, and feeling their one or two votes not showing up won't matter.

[Zaybay]

With tonight's primary results Kemp effectively becomes the next Georgia governor.

Not true, but whatever.

People here love ignoring the fact that you need 50%+1 in Georgia to avoid a runoff--something Dems can't do because their voters have a habit of getting overconfident, deciding they won already, and feeling their one or two votes not showing up won't matter.

....I really doubt thats the reason GA Dems keep losing.

[Devout Centrist]

Does it look like Abrams will invest in rural communities? With the cash she’s been getting, I think she should open field offices all over the state

[Buzz]

With tonight's primary results Kemp effectively becomes the next Georgia governor.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Does it look like Abrams will invest in rural communities? With the cash she’s been getting, I think she should open field offices all over the state

If anyone can reach out to the rurals, it would be her. Still think Kemp has this, but Abrams will give it all she got. I see this more of a toss-up than the Ohio/Wisconsin races (which are clearly Likely R, if not Solid R, right now). Rooting big for Abrams to turn the tide and end the GOP hegemony here.

[Hammy]

With tonight's primary results Kemp effectively becomes the next Georgia governor.

Not true, but whatever.

People here love ignoring the fact that you need 50%+1 in Georgia to avoid a runoff--something Dems can't do because their voters have a habit of getting overconfident, deciding they won already, and feeling their one or two votes not showing up won't matter.

....I really doubt thats the reason GA Dems keep losing.

It's not the reason they keep losing, but it certainly doesn't help when you need all the votes you can get. Either way while Abrams is the best shot the state Dems have had in quite awhile, I just can't see any Dem making that 50% threshhold though I would be ecstatic if proven wrong.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Way to go Kemp!

[South Dakota Democrat]

Does it look like Abrams will invest in rural communities? With the cash she’s been getting, I think she should open field offices all over the state

If anyone can reach out to the rurals, it would be her. Still think Kemp has this, but Abrams will give it all she got. I see this more of a toss-up than the Ohio/Wisconsin races (which are clearly Likely R, if not Solid R, right now). Rooting big for Abrams to turn the tide and end the GOP hegemony here.

In what universe are Ohio and Wisconsin likely/solid R?  You just aren't speaking sense.

[Virginiá]

If anyone can reach out to the rurals, it would be her. Still think Kemp has this, but Abrams will give it all she got. I see this more of a toss-up than the Ohio/Wisconsin races (which are clearly Likely R, if not Solid R, right now). Rooting big for Abrams to turn the tide and end the GOP hegemony here.

In what universe are Ohio and Wisconsin likely/solid R?  You just aren't speaking sense.

Keep in mind that this is coming from the guy who thought Trump would get a "cave bump" from the rescue of the students in Thailand.

[South Dakota Democrat]

If anyone can reach out to the rurals, it would be her. Still think Kemp has this, but Abrams will give it all she got. I see this more of a toss-up than the Ohio/Wisconsin races (which are clearly Likely R, if not Solid R, right now). Rooting big for Abrams to turn the tide and end the GOP hegemony here.

In what universe are Ohio and Wisconsin likely/solid R?  You just aren't speaking sense.

Keep in mind that this is coming from the guy who thought Trump would get a "cave bump" from the rescue of the students in Thailand.

Ah, I see, so he's either a troll, or has no earthly idea what he's talking about.

[DrScholl]

It's important to remember that the primary turnout differential was way down for Republicans this year. In 2010 is was well over 200k, but this year it was 52k. That shows that there is an enthusiasm gap and that a lot of suburban voters who flipped in 2016 did not return to the GOP fold.

[South Dakota Democrat]

It's important to remember that the primary turnout differential was way down for Republicans this year. In 2010 is was well over 200k, but this year it was 52k. That shows that there is an enthusiasm gap and that a lot of suburban voters who flipped in 2016 did not return to the GOP fold.

Cool beans.

EDIT:  Also, love your signature!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Does it look like Abrams will invest in rural communities? With the cash she’s been getting, I think she should open field offices all over the state

Yes. I hope her banner issue this fall will be the expansion of Medicaid. That really isn't partisan at all and affects all demographics across this state.

[cvparty]

omg kemp annihilated cagle

[Adam Griffin]

LMAO that "SHADY DAVID SHAFER" meme really worked:

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Geoff Duncan   278,750   50.1%   
David Shafer   277,110   49.9   

[Rookie Yinzer]

LMAO that "SHADY DAVID SHAFER" meme really worked:

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Geoff Duncan   278,750   50.1%   
David Shafer   277,110   49.9   

I HATE David Shafer! This warms my heart.

Has this race been moved from Likely to Lean Republican yet?

[Alabama_Indy10]

LMAO that "SHADY DAVID SHAFER" meme really worked:

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Geoff Duncan   278,750   50.1%   
David Shafer   277,110   49.9   

I HATE David Shafer! This warms my heart.

Has this race been moved from Likely to Lean Republican yet?

Why? I'm just curious.. Don't know much about either..