Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Sir Mohamed]

3, 2, 1... OC post incoming:

Biden was never at 60% approvals and as infrastructure stimulus🤑 isnt passed, 304 freiwall has collapsed. Rs gonna win 2022 just as 2010 and its not blue wave due to fact inflation is rising. We're still living in Covid environment. We're 500 days away from election and a lot can happen, but Rs can win congress and McConnell block crt appointments. 2024 is back to 273 freiwall 😁 Its not gonna be landslide

[Sir Mohamed]

Nothing has changed he has the exact same Approvals as he had on Election night

Approval average is down 3%, disapproval is up 6%.  Looking at the state level, he is underwater in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which he won by slim margins.  Definitely not a position to be comfortable in for the Biden camp.

Well, Trump had a much larger deficit in these states which he won narrowly and still came very close in 2020. This doesn't mean anything for 2024.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1425507048243011584

According to SnowLabrador, this seals the deal that WI is Safe R in 2024.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden's approvals are now under 50% in biased 538. You know he done f-uped if he can't get good numbers out of there.

So Mr. Trump was superf-ed when he never made it out of the mid 40s and most of time was in low 40s and 30s territory?

[Sir Mohamed]

2014 was clearly based on people getting bored or frustrated with Obama than Republicans becoming popular.

Yes, I think the best reaction to any analysis of 2014 is to express surprise that federal elections took place in that year. 2014 mid-terms? What mid-terms?

Boehner was popular in 2014/ and he was unpopular in 2016, McCarthy has the same exact Approvals as Boehner 15%

Boehner was never popular, not even among GOPers. Especially not among them.

[Sir Mohamed]

The poll in question is certainly outlier, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden has lost some support among Dems. That's mainly because not much has been accomplished through legislation since March. Both infrastructure bills aren't enacted yet, neither is a public option, tax reform, immigration, voting rights etc. Biden campaigned on being a pragmatist whose long experience and ties on the Hill can get stuff done. Now there are Sinema and Manchin, on whom neither Biden nor Schumer have much leverage and a GOP that is unwilling to do anything. It's annoying and frustrating. For sure not Biden's fault, but the prez always gets the blame (or credit) for what goes right or wrong.

[Sir Mohamed]

Rebound among RMG Research

Sept 10-11 (changes from Sept 2-5)
47% approve (+5)
48% disapprove (-4)

https://scottrasmussen.com/biden-job-approval-rebounds-following-speech-47-approve-48-disapprove/

Seems like the Afghanistan news cycle is largely over, so not surprised.

Yup, this was never going to last very long, especially in the newscycle we live in these days. That said, Biden's honeymoon is for sure over.

[Sir Mohamed]

Perhaps not a popular take, BUT: If these numbers are in the same territory in early 2023, Biden might actually decide not to seek reelection. We're probably going to lose the majority in at least the House next year, leading to complete legislative stalemate. I mean, we're already struggling to get things through congress. Never since Truman has a reelected prez manage to win back majorities. So why should Biden, in his early 80s, continue to hang around for another 4 stressful years and not get much done since the GOP will continue to refuse to pass meaningful laws? His main purpose to jump in the race last was to remove Mr. Trump from power, which he did. Of course Trump running again may change his calculation.

[Sir Mohamed]

In other news, the percentage of voters who think both parties suck seems to be increasing. And no, I was not polled myself.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/575312-majorities-again-view-both-parties-unfavorably-gallup

Here's my honest take on that: 2 viable political parties are just not enough to depict the entire political spectrum of a country as large and diverse as America. You always have too many people who actually don't belong in the same party. That's why I'm increasingly in favor of switching to a parliamentary system with 4-5 political parties. Our current system has outlived itsself and needs a complete overhaul.

[Sir Mohamed]

Assume that 45% of the voters are MAGA types, and 45% are Bernie Sanders socialists, and 10% are centrists. 100% of the voters would prefer that centrists be in power rather than the 45% cohort that they are not a part of. What voting system would elect what 100% of the voters agree is the least bad alternative to their cohort being in power? It seems to me that there is no good way to get there, other than perhaps a German proportional parliamentary system if one gets past a 5% threshold. And then there would probably be a minority government of one cohort or the other. And that won't work unless the power of the executive branch is watered down.

I don't think 45% of the electorate are all staunch MAGA cultists. If 2020 was a parliamentary election with 5 viable parties, it would have most likely looked like this:

Liberal Party (center-left, leader: Joe Biden): 32%
America First Party (right-wing, leader: Donald Trump): 25%
Social Democratic Party (left-wing, leader: Bernie Sanders): 20%
Republican Party (center-right, leader: Rob Portman): 14%
Moderate Party (center, leader: Charlie Baker): 6%

Govt: Liberal-Social Dem coalition (PM: Joe Biden; Deputy PM: Bernie Sanders). Govt gets a lot of reforms passed.

[Sir Mohamed]

Main driver of Biden's decline in approvals seem Independents. It would be nice to see more data on said group where they stand politically and why they're disapproving of him. That for sure goes beyond the Afghanistan debacle. Some could be progressives disappointed at the lack of progress. That's not the whole picture though.

[Sir Mohamed]

Useless polls and the Election is yr out

So is the FL poll that has Biden leading. Election is 3 years out

[Sir Mohamed]

Not trolling, but I seriously don’t buy these approvals. Might be nonresponse bias.

Because there’s no way that Biden should be comparable to Trump on RCP given the A vs RV vs LV biases for D/R and the systemic advantage in the EC for the GOP.

The media has begun to turn on Biden. Maybe they just want blood.

It’s kind of funny actually. I remember there was data on how much coverage was positive on cable and network news of recent presidents. People pointed to Obama and said the media was biased in favor of Dems. Actually, they only were biased in favor of Obama (and very briefly Bush 43 after 9/11). Since then they have dragged presidents through the mud, Biden included.

You answered your own question; the media kind of turned on Biden and that's one major reason his approvals have declined. The 2nd major reason is that 2 senators are derailing his agenda after he campaigned on getting stuff done again.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not trolling, but I seriously don’t buy these approvals. Might be nonresponse bias.

Because there’s no way that Biden should be comparable to Trump on RCP given the A vs RV vs LV biases for D/R and the systemic advantage in the EC for the GOP.

The media has begun to turn on Biden. Maybe they just want blood.

It’s kind of funny actually. I remember there was data on how much coverage was positive on cable and network news of recent presidents. People pointed to Obama and said the media was biased in favor of Dems. Actually, they only were biased in favor of Obama (and very briefly Bush 43 after 9/11). Since then they have dragged presidents through the mud, Biden included.

You answered your own question; the media kind of turned on Biden and that's one major reason his approvals have declined. The 2nd major reason is that 2 senators are derailing his agenda after he campaigned on getting stuff done again.

Yep.  Manchin and Sinema should face some repercussions within the party once we lose power (and we are guaranteed to at this point).  Complete expulsion from the party.

I don't think either of them would care the slightest bit.

[Sir Mohamed]

The GBC in conjunction with Biden approvals is interesting here. Although I would expect a majority of undecideds to break R in 2022, it still shows Biden's weakness isn't necessarily a result of a GOP resurgence.

People may underestimate how many Americans are dissatisfied with both parties, be it agenda or lack thereof or their general attitude. So Biden having medicore or poor approvals doesn't automatically benefit the GOP, and vise versa. Trump still did better than approvals suggested, especially his approvals in 2017 and 2018. I see this pattern as a symptom of a failed party system since 2 parties are simply not enough to depict the political spectrum in this country.

[Sir Mohamed]

Brutal....

https://twitter.com/TrumpJew2/status/1454803073931563011?s=20

The getting things done part is funny because when Trump had the trifecta, what really got done objectively?

The -7 for RV is basically on par with the 538 average. Not surprised they went with the -12 one though to drive the 'Biden in disarray!!!' coverage

Unfortunately, a major junk of voters have the political memory of a goldfish.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Biden is at 45 % next year then Republicans are almost certain to win the House!

Even at 48-49%, I'd expect them to at least narrowly win the House.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Biden is at 45 % next year then Republicans are almost certain to win the House!

Even at 48-49%, I'd expect them to at least narrowly win the House.

I doubt Biden will be at 48-49 next November if Democrats continue to overreach at the highest order.

Ugh, you must be kidding? How are they "overreaching"? He's not even close to passing BBB plan as proposed nor has he passed a lot of other items from the so called "liberal wishlist". Police reform? Failed in congress. Voting rights? Nah. SCOTUS reforms? Completely DOA. Minimum wage increase? Blocked. Should I go on?

If anything, the Dem trifecta has underdelivered because of 2 senator's ego and delusion.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Biden is at 45 % next year then Republicans are almost certain to win the House!

Even at 48-49%, I'd expect them to at least narrowly win the House.

I doubt Biden will be at 48-49 next November if Democrats continue to overreach at the highest order.

Ugh, you must be kidding? How are they "overreaching"? He's not even close to passing BBB plan as proposed nor has he passed a lot of other items from the so called "liberal wishlist". Police reform? Failed in congress. Voting rights? Nah. SCOTUS reforms? Completely DOA. Minimum wage increase? Blocked.

If anything, the Dem trifecta has underdelivered because of 2 senator's ego and delusion.

He has overreached via the administrative state, doing things such as extending the rent moratorium after the courts said it was illegal, and the vaccine mandate. Not to mention a bunch of other small regulatory actions that we aren't privy to.

I will likely be punishing Biden in the midterms by voting Republican. Biden said he would not do a vaccine mandate a year ago. He has some time to fix his administration, but I don't think he cares about any policy views that are not left of center. What was once a democrat willing to reach across the aisle is now the most liberal president we've seen since LBJ. He's a sad old man now.

You know that majority of Americans supported the mandate in polls? If (or when) Dems lose congress, it won't be cause of the mandate. And btw, if he didn't implement the mandate, he'd be blamed for Covid still being a major issue.

If Dems lose their majorities, it will largely be a result of Manchin and Sinema's obstruction that prevents Biden from solving actual problems. And because voters have already forgotten about what a disaster the Trump presidency was and about what happened on 1/6.

[Sir Mohamed]

All that talk about permanent majority was premature, Crt packing, DC Statehood, Youngkin said in his speech D's are trying to raise your taxes

So 304 freiwall has collapsed?

[Sir Mohamed]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Nov. 3-4, 1005 adults

Approve 48 (+4)
Disapprove 47 (-4)

Is the shock over?

We have just endured some of the worst inflation since the Civil War. We have a death toll from COVID-19 that resembles a very bad war. "Afghanistan" is sinking in as a fait accompli by #45.

Not yet; not before Manchin, Sinema and Blue Dogs in the House get their sh-t together and actually send meaningful bills to Biden's desk.

[Sir Mohamed]

Compared to the Plague in 14th Century, Covid is nothing-burger. Why are people so afraid ?

Compared to WWII, Iraq was a nothing-burger. Why are people so mad?

[Sir Mohamed]

Compared to the Plague in 14th Century, Covid is nothing-burger. Why are people so afraid ?

Compared to WWII, Iraq was a nothing-burger. Why are people so mad?

Yes, it was my point. roxas compares today's situation with 1970 and 1930 and wonders, why people are mad.

Then I did you wrong this time. The original post is on the previous page I didn't see before.

[Sir Mohamed]

I really don't get it. I always thought it's because not more gets done in congress, however, I'm not sure whether there's not more to it. Maybe Democratic policies aren't as popular as liberals and progressives in mostly academic circles (let alone Europe) think they are and Trump was basically just barely voted out of office because he was uniquely unlikeable and scandal-plagued figure. Maybe not even because of the latter, since no scandal seems to stick long term. I mean, he de facto supported a insurrection. After that you would assume that he and his party are out of business for the rest of the decade.

People may just not care about all these scandals as long as [Trump] represents their cultural convictions and as long as other problems like inflation, deindustralization and poor wages continue to exist. I personally still believe center-left policies are better to address these issues and Democrats do hilariously poor in selling their solutions.

Yup, you could have a point here. In all honesty, 2020 may have been more a "not election of Trump" rather than a mandate for Biden and the Democratic Party/progressive politics.

[Sir Mohamed]

D panic mode
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1459757589495889923?t=DCMkKpayrWubBiKQ...

Dems need to get things together. If Biden can’t deliver, he shouldn’t run in ‘24. Maybe he should resign prior to that. I say that as someone who admires and likes him. But if he’s a detriment to the party’s chances, well then…..

This isn't parliamentary system where PMs resign because of that. If it was, Biden could actually put his agenda on the floor of parliament and ask for a vote together with motion of (no) confidence. So either his majority votes for it or the PM resigns as a result of losing the vote.