Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Sir Mohamed]

Among RV:

YouGov/Economist: 45/52 (-7)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nr7yjreihl/econTabReport.pdf

Marist: 43/50 (-7)

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/biden-the-issues-facing-the-nation/

What's causing the recent drop again?

[Sir Mohamed]

Some polls just released:

Fox: 44/56
Gallup: 40/56
YouGov (RV): 45/52
Quinnipiac (RV): 38/57

Looks like the trend is overall going down again.

[Sir Mohamed]

Back to 49/49 on Rasmussen. Haven't had any new polls that cover the Trump arrest yet.

There was an Ipsos poll showing Trump at 25% favorability though.

[Sir Mohamed]

538 average now 45/52

Obama was 47.3/47.9 on April 13, 2011, and 45.3/50.0 on April 21 that year. Was before the Bin Laden bump, which didn't last very long. August 2011 was a low point, where he was at 43/53 at some point and remained underwater until February 2012.

Trump was at 43.2/52.8 on April 13, 2019.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1647695028536459264

[Sir Mohamed]

Premise:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20230419_US_Premise.pdf

Biden 36% approval / 55% disapproval

Edit: Among RV, the figure is 40% approve / 54% disapprove

B/C rated pollster, but Trump and DeSantis are still trailing in a GE matchup here.

YouGov from today is 47/51 among RV.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1651673203436056583

[Sir Mohamed]

I know Rassy shows Biden with the best approvals, though the pollster is really questionable. Today they also have DeSantis with 60% favorability rating and polled 2024 tickets. Latter found Trump/DeSantis beating Biden/Harris by 8 pts. while Trump/MTG loses by 4 pts. Makes me wonder whether they numbers are completely made up.

[Sir Mohamed]

You have to laugh at Rasmussen at now 51/48 while ABC/Wapo is churning out its 37/56

While the ABC poll is for sure an outlier, you can't take Rassy serious. Especially since Biden is doing poorly in their 2024 GE polls. He's not underperforming approvals that much. In fact, he possibly gets a higher share of the vote than his average approval stands at.

[Sir Mohamed]

YouGov/Economist out with 51/48 this week lol

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411540.5975

It's 50/47 among RV and 48/46 among adults.

Rassy dropped to 44/54 today, lol.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1659037079764971520

[Sir Mohamed]

Oof. Most likely an outlier, still concerning though.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1660435604125958144

[Sir Mohamed]

Rasmussen was fake when it was 51/47 and it's fake now that it's 41/57 lol. We all know they cook the books whether they have good or bad numbers for Biden. There's no way that he went from a positive approval to like 42/56 in literally a few days.

Yup, they also showed a difference of around 10 pts. between Trump chosing MTG or RDS as VP candidate against Biden/Harris.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1666638822019399681

[Sir Mohamed]

Not approvals, but horrible if true:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1668416880128798754
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1668416633054851073

[Sir Mohamed]

I mean, just take a look at "able to get things done." it's 38/61, despite the fact that objectively speaking, he HAS gotten a lot of stuff done. So there is more to these numbers clearly.

My explanation is that Biden isn't present in the public enough. And when he is, the media takes pleasure in showing his gaffes. As a result, there's a general perception that he's old and tired and no longer up to the job.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is this fake or an outlier?

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1681129259962712064

[Sir Mohamed]

Just out of curiosity, I wonder where Biden's approvals would be today if back in April he announced not to seek reelection? I assume higher, though lower than immediately after the announcement.

[Sir Mohamed]

Just out of curiosity, I wonder where Biden's approvals would be today if back in April he announced not to seek reelection? I assume higher, though lower than immediately after the announcement.

I used to disagree with the idea of Biden not running again due to his age, but now I'm starting to wonder whether that wouldn't have been better for the party overall. I understand the incumbency brings a great advantage but I don't know how useful it is now given the fact that Biden is so wildly unpopular. Maybe someone fresh like Gretchen Whitmer or Raphael Warnock would've been better for the Democrats next year with Biden supporting them in the background.

Perception is everything in politics and Biden just comes off as so old. It's the first thing most people picture when they think of him, regardless of what he's accomplished or how awful Trump is.

I'm 100% behind Biden's reelection campaign now that it's launched, but I sadly agree with your post. Whitmer would for sure have been an outstanding candidate. I know some Dems and leaners disagree with me on Newsom, but watching him over last 1-2 years or even how he ran circles with Hannity in that Fox interview makes me believe he also would have been a formidable nominee. Maybe indeed it would have been better for Biden not to run again. But only if Harris isn't his replacement (saying this as someone who initially backed her 2020 campaign before she dropped out).

[Sir Mohamed]

Marist - 43/52 among RV

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_Trust_Climate_202307281317.pdf

I think this is most likely where things actually stand as of today.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1701785456709378143

[Sir Mohamed]

I must admit, I thought his approvals would have improved by this time. Perhaps we have to be more patient. Otherwise, he's going to win 2024 only because Trump is even less popular.