COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Sir Mohamed]

If wearing masks in public didn't work why is this one of the least potent flu seasons ever?

Then why are there so many COVID-19 cases?

Among other reasons, COVID-19 is much more contagious than flu. 

Additionally, there is a level of immunity among the general public with the flu through previous infections and already existing vaccines. With COVID-19, there was zero immunity when the virus first reached the US (or the world) and it's still at a low level because vaccinations are just getting started. While 28+ million Americans were infected, some of them may have lost their natural immunity over the months. Not all patients can enjoy longer immunity beyond 6 months after an infection, though exact data is still not sufficient and reinfections are relatively rare according to current data. But there is strong evidence asymptomatic cases lead to weaker and shorter immunity from antibodies.

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump getting the vaccine would have been fine ino if it was public to reduce skepticism

His ego didn't allow it because he most likely thinks that makes him look weak.

[Sir Mohamed]

The governor of Texas said the virus is still here even while removing all the restrictions. His reasoning, flawed or not, is that Texans know how to deal with it now, not that the pandemic is over.

Needless to say I disagree with Abbott, but you see the same elsewhere in America and the world. A pandemic can also be "over" when society declares it over and just gets tired of restrictions and is willing to take more victims.

[Sir Mohamed]

Can we get a megathread 7 for "the sunset" or "everyone should get a vaccine"?  "Dawn of the Presidential Superspreader" is about as far from topical as it gets, and this thread is now well over 100 pages.

Agree. Though I'm no sure we're close to the end of the pandemic worldwide. WHO already said they don't expect it over in 2021. But we will be in a much better spot this fall than we're today, there is no question about that.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/health/detroit-mayor-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine/index.html

Lol what a r***** Why are almost all of Detroit's recent mayors r*****s. He "changed" his mind. More like big gretch probably whipped him into line lol.

The dude clearly doesn't understand how it works, right? All vaccines currently approved in the US are very effective (close to 100%) in preventing ICU treatment or death. J&J and AstraZeneca are slightly less effective than Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna in preventing mild and moderate symptoms such as cough. But the major goal of vaccination is to prevent people from dying or serious illness. He also seems to forget that J&J only needs 1 shot instead of 2 and that this vaccine doesn't require very low temperatures that make delivery and storage more difficult.

Politicans from either party playing such games undermine public confidence and with it the progress to save lives. Last but ot least, the virus needs to be suppressed as quickly as possible everywhere before more mutations start emerging and vaccination with an "updated" version needs to start all over.

[Sir Mohamed]

Another great thing about Biden's speech is that people now have May 1 and July 4 dates for when normal life might return, so there is light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully that deflates the rush to reopen right now and reminds people not to endanger their loved ones just before they can be saved.

I don't understand the logic of the July 4 date for "small groups" to get together.  The CDC has already said that vaccinated people can get together in small groups right now, and a lot people even criticized that for being to conservative.

If Biden's vaccine timeline is indeed realistic, he should be targeting Memorial Day for this sort of event.

And once everyone who wants to be vaccinated is vaccinated, why limit it to small groups? Why any limits whatsoever?  Why not name an official national "Lick A Stranger's Face Day"?  Kind of like The Purge, but for sexual harassment only.

I mean, it's pretty darn obvious why he doesn't want people to think "everything will be amazing by Memorial Day."

There's still a small chance that there could be some SNAFU with getting people vaccinated, like Texas opening prematurely and sparking a ton of cases.

Also under-promising and over-delivering is pretty much always better than the reverse.

Agree completely. What's still a potential risk here are other variants of the virus emerging elsewhere. So far all the (approved) vaccines are effective against difference variants like UK or South Africa version, but may not be the case with future mutations. America and other rich countries must make sure vaccination programs are distributed to poorer nations as well to minimize the risk for new variants. Otherwise, vaccination program would have to start from 0 again once vaccines are modified. Latter isn't a huge deal from a medical standpoint, though, only from a logistical point of view.

[Sir Mohamed]

I also read that somebody said the steep decline of cases in the U.S. wasn't caused by vaccinations, but that a bigger drop from vaccinations will be occurring soon.

What else caused the decline then, according to these? Natural immunity through infections? I think it's combination of both. Latter is hard to measure since we can only estimate the actual number of cases (which is much higher than positive test). The virus definitely hasn't become less transferable in recent months. Due to variants, the opposite is actually true.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think it's about time to rename the thread. Perhaps something like "The great vaccination of the Republic". Presidential superspreader is news from Oct. 2020.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1376509943260573699

[Sir Mohamed]

Strongly oppose pausing J&J vaccinations. Far more people could die as a consequence of not getting their shot. It's out of question the vaccine prevents pretty much 100% of deaths from COVID, which is far, far more than might die from thrombisis. It's not even proven J&J is the cause of said complications.

[Sir Mohamed]

Strongly oppose pausing J&J vaccinations. Far more people could die as a consequence of not getting their shot. It's out of question the vaccine prevents pretty much 100% of deaths from COVID, which is far, far more than might die from thrombisis. It's not even proven J&J is the cause of said complications.

Science doesn't care about your feelings

Math doesn't either.

[Sir Mohamed]

"DeathSantis" is trending on Twitter because the left is enraged that Florida has ended all remaining COVID-related emergency orders.  The real stats show that there is no correlation between lockdowns and rate of transmission.  California and Oklahoma, two states which took very different approaches, have two of the lowest rates in the country.  Michigan, Florida, and Colorado have the highest.  Texas, which ended their remaining COVID measures over a month ago, is still seeing a decrease in cases.  It is time to reopen America now.  To all the communists who think otherwise, you are still welcome to wear a mask in public and isolate yourselves indefinitely.

Thank you Gavin!

[Sir Mohamed]

So basically, COVID is on it's last legs? Or is it premature to assume that?

At this point, barring some kind of apocalyptic variant, COVID-19 will not be able to significantly rebound in the United States. We could see brief plateaus or rises in cases at some point, but deaths and hospitalizations will continue to drop and it will never get as bad as it was in the winter. With the amount of vaccinated people here, we are well past the point of no return.

Yup, but, as mentioned, only if no new variants resistant to current vaccines come up. This is why we should increase our efforts to vaccinate other parts of the world, particularly poor countries. The more the virus is suppressed worldwide, the less likely new variants approach. From a scientific standpoint, we could quickly adjust existing vaccines, though the rollout would have to restart. Another reason we should enhance global efforts is for the use of soft power. We shouldn't leave that to the PRC and Russia, making other countries more dependent on them.

It's also very likely we need an annual Covid shot like the flu to prevent larger outbreaks again. There's little evidence this virus will completely disappear in the near future. It's becoming endemic.

[Sir Mohamed]

New study on immunity; might last longer than expected. Still no coherant data on the question that needs more research as we gather more data over a longer period of time.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1397902658871177216

[Sir Mohamed]

Confirmed what already could be expected:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1404792104342147072

[Sir Mohamed]

Everyone who is alarmed (as I was initially) about the report that half of the new infections in Israel are among fully vaccinated people should read this thread ASAP: https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770.

TL/DR: since the general population of Israel is highly vaccinated, this infection rate is consistent with the Pfizer vaccine being as effective against Delta as it is against other variants.

Thanks for this.

I'm also convinced that a big thing about the panic with variants is that people immediately consider a mutation of something to be a catastrophe or something very different or bad.

The Delta being more contagious doesn't mean it's vaccine-proof, get a grip people

Yup, though there's a huge gap between fully vaccinated people and partly vaccinated. Pfizer vaccine is just 33% effective after the 1st shot, but over 90% after the 2nd according to current data. For elderly people, a 3rd booster shot is recommended a few months later.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1410955919798673410

[Sir Mohamed]

I think mask mandates should only apply to unvaccinated people or in very small closed rooms. That would create a bigger incentive to get vaccinated than a constitutionally questionable mandate.

Major problem here is the Delta variant; seems like we're in race between herd immunity and new variants ever since Aplpha variant came along. We'd be in better shaße worldwide without the variants, ero if it was still the original virus.

[Sir Mohamed]

A new study conducted by the Mayo Clinic indicates that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has substantially reduced protection against Delta, down to 42%, while Moderna has held up better, at 76%. One can choose to take the viewpoint that breakthrough infections are nothing to worry about as long as it doesn't result in hospitalization, but it now must be acknowledged that breakthrough infections are not rare fluke events and that the vaccines do not make one safe against COVID-19 infection.

In July, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization has remained high (mRNA-1273: 81%, 95% CI: 33-96.3%; BNT162b2: 75%, 95% CI: 24-93.9%), but effectiveness against infection was lower for both vaccines (mRNA-1273: 76%, 95% CI: 58-87%; BNT162b2: 42%, 95% CI: 13-62%), with a more pronounced reduction for BNT162b2.

Here mRNA-1273 = Moderna, BNT162b2 = Pfizer/BioNTech.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v2

Which is why masks need to be mandated for the time being.  The vaccines are great, but their effectiveness is waning with more variants popping up.  We need more measures, besides just vaccines, to combat this virus.

Ideally the vaccine gets a modification for new variants that make spread less likely or next to impossible. That's why the Delta variant is so bad. My understanding is that Pfizer and others are already working on the issue so we can get a modified version of the vaccine in booster shots a year and two from today.

[Sir Mohamed]

Fauci says anyone will sooner or later need booster shot. Experts have long suggested for SARS-CoV2 to become endemic, so that isn't a huge surprise here.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1425808565990797316

[Sir Mohamed]

I heard so many times about the advantage of mRNA vaccines being quickly adaptable to fight variants. But I haven’t heard about the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines being adapted against delta.  Is this actually happening? 

Pfitzer said there is no need as of today. Some months ago they said an adaption of their vaccine would be possible in a matter of few months should the need arise.

Recently there were reports that Moderna may be slightly more effective against the Delta variant, though the data needs to be validated by more studies.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1428001349531222017

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden vs. Florida man, Part II:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1428683583040929792

[Sir Mohamed]

Pfitzer's Covid vaccine has now final and regular approval:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1429801426813915142

[Sir Mohamed]

Thank you, Gov. Ronald DeathSantis.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1432658183110238216