2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Good luck to everyone tonight!  I will stay off because I want to come to my own early overreactions without knowing everyone else's, but it's here.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think we're going to come up just short but hold onto the Senate.

For several hours tonight, I really thought Trump was going to pull it out for the first time in months.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Surprised at Jefferson, AL (Birmingham) almost flipping.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I suspect that the Republicans will win the run-offs easily in Georgia, unfortunately.

If Biden wins, yes.  But, if Trump wins, I think Warnock and Ossoff (if that gets below 50%) would have decent chances.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.

IA, ME, and AK will determine whether the Senate flips tonight.

And Iowa is gone for Democrats now, with Alaska and Maine looking like they're gone as well.

If Ossoff keeps Perdue under 50% then you have two run-off elections in the first week of January for those Senate seats.

That's true. Hopefully Democrats might be able to pull that out.

How those elections would go depend greatly on who wins the Electoral College

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm getting a little annoyed about how much many of my friends are going full-in on rigged election conspiracy theories right now

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm getting a little annoyed about how much many of my friends are going full-in on rigged election conspiracy theories right now

Yeah I'm seeing this all over social media. Finding ballots randomly in Michigan. And something about sharpie pens spoiling ballots in Arizona? I don't know.

Apparently there was a drop of 100K+ ballots in Michigan that went 100% for Biden.  That seems statistically implausible, but I tend to imagine that there was some sort of mundane sorting explanation rather than a massive conspiracy theory.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Any ideas about what the NPV might ultimately wind up looking like?  It's hard to make any judgment about trends without knowing that.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It's kind of funny that FOX Decision Desk is firmly standing by their call on AZ whereas NYT hasn't called it yet.

What special data could FOX have that NYT doesn't? Aren't they looking at the same data?

FOX also stopped using the traditional exit polls after 2016 and basically did their own with a different methodology (and maybe including some additional modeling)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is there a chance Donald Trump won the City of Miami?  I know it has elected Republican mayors, so I wonder if it might have voted to the right of the county given the Cuban swings.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What's going on in Alaska and North Carolina?  I'd like to get the calls done that I actually feel good about before one of the others get called and it's officially over.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I was just thinking that a blue Georgia surrounded by red North Carolina and Florida would look really weird on a map.  I guess the same is true for blue Illinois when the Midwest votes Republican, though, so we'll get used to it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Please celebrate, but don't gloat, if/when Biden takes the lead in these states counting mail ballots.  I don't believe that there is anything majorly fraudulent going on here, but it is still really hard watching apparent leads disappear even if you know it's coming.  I remember that well from the AZ-SEN and several CA House races in 2018.  We need to find a more efficient way of counting mail ballots going forward because this sort of result seems fishy to people who don't pay that close of attention to why it's happening, and that appearance can be real for so many people.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Did Wisconsin really have 90% turnout, or is that something that is being misinterpreted by people trying to claim a conspiracy theory?

Also, what is the TL/DR version of "Sharpiegate"?  I don't buy conspiracy theories as a rule, but I want to understand what everyone on my FB feed is complaining about.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Something else: MA and CA "battle" which states gave Biden the highest vote share aside from DC. It was HI in previous elections, but that's just at about 63%, similar to MD. He's at 66% in MA and 65% in CA, with still a ton of votes to be added. Dude, I'd love it if CA ended up as the most Dem state. I love my homestate big league!

I'm surprised Biden apparently cracked 60% in WA and NJ as I expected him to be just under that mark. NY is just 58%, but only 80% counted so far.

Hawaii swinging a bit Republican was very predictable.  Hawaii always moves towards incumbents, for whatever reason.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

CNN: Trump/team is starting to believe they are "running out of options", Trump frantically calling GOP surrogates, worry about Georgia growing. A 2024 campaign is already being discussed.

These people are insane.  Trump is more likely to be in jail in 2024 than running for President.

I feel like Trump is going to make a ton of noise about running in 2024 but not actually run.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How many votes are left in Georgia?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Kellyanne Conway is on FOX News saying that Trump will be talking about downballot Republican gains.  That certainly sounds like trying to put a positive spin on it.  I doubt he will concede, but that does not seem like a president that still believes he will win.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

As much as I wanted a Republican (even Donald Trump) in the Oval Office, a part of me will be so relieved not to have him as the leader of my party anymore

[100% pro-life no matter what]

FOX showing PA down to 64K

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ivanka is the only Trump that should even think about running.  Trump Jr. would be terrible.

Do you think hoping the SC overturns an outcome is calling for a cout if there is evidence to the legitimacy of the election process? They literally are calling me a revolutionary or some BS.

SN, we lost this election (on the presidential level, at least).  There are convincing arguments about why it wasn't a disaster for the GOP, but sometimes the simple explanation is the true explanation, rather than some conspiracy theory.  I'm not saying that mass voter fraud is impossible, but it is improbable enough to require a very high level of proof, which we have not seen at all.  Plus, if there were systematic voter fraud, I don't think it would have allowed us to keep the Senate (most likely) and gain in the House.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ivanka is the only Trump that should even think about running.  Trump Jr. would be terrible.

Do you think hoping the SC overturns an outcome is calling for a cout if there is evidence to the legitimacy of the election process? They literally are calling me a revolutionary or some BS.

SN, we lost this election (on the presidential level, at least).  There are convincing arguments about why it wasn't a disaster for the GOP, but sometimes the simple explanation is the true explanation, rather than some conspiracy theory.  I'm not saying that mass voter fraud is impossible, but it is improbable enough to require a very high level of proof, which we have not seen at all.  Plus, if there were systematic voter fraud, I don't think it would have allowed us to keep the Senate (most likely) and gain in the House.

Fair point. I guess my larger concern is about the counting process which the mail voting. Why not just count everything with independent watchers in Georgia, Michigan, Penn, AZ. Make sure it is right? Would the country really suffer that much?

I agree that we should make this more transparent and less drawn out, but that doesn't mean that the results are rigged

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I didn't predict House races, but assuming that the favorites win all uncalled races (and that the GOP wins the January GA runoffs), I will only miss GA-PRES and ME-SEN this year.  Not bad.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What votes are still outstanding in Georgia?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

So Fox's map shows Biden at 270, but they're not making the call?

Watching Fox right now, they're still at 264.

They had a what if map up for a couple minutes but it was clearly marked as such