COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1246240181440540672

 That is 66% for a random group that seems very high.

If that's true, that would be excellent news.  If it winds up that the vast majority of infections are asymptomatic, it makes the potential for widespread serious illness and deaths a lot less.  Let's be willing to give positive developments the attention they deserve in the face of this!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It is definitely time to start planning to bring back the sports. Good idea, Don, couldn't last much longer like this. Let's just get the new schedules in place.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1246435315444785153?s=19

Some people on Atlas are underestimating how much live sports would be a morale boost for tens of millions of people.  Being able to watch sports every day would take my pain level in this from a 9/10 to a 6.5/10 just like that.

Hopefully they can figure out a strategy to bring back sports, even without crowds.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

[100% pro-life no matter what]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Maybe when we have evidence (not self-reported speculation) from actual scientists along the lines of what is listed in the tweet. The 50x number you're quoting is drawn out of thin air. Your confirmation bias is showing.

San Miguel County, CO (Telluride) is trying to test everyone in the county (giving a much better idea of what asymptomatic infection rates are). They're only about 15% of the way there but preliminary results show, at most, 4% infection, with only 1% absolute positives.

11 million people would only be about 3% of the US.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Maybe when we have evidence (not self-reported speculation) from actual scientists along the lines of what is listed in the tweet. The 50x number you're quoting is drawn out of thin air. Your confirmation bias is showing.

Mina is also saying that's the upper bound of what he would consider an unsurprising result — if you scroll up two tweets he says it could be 2 million, 4 million, somewhere in that range. Travis is cherry-picking the highest figure he threw out and treating it like he's making a much more specific claim than he is.

I recognize that it's a high estimate, and I don't agree that it's less deadly than influenza.  My argument for weeks has been that it's slightly more deadly than the flu (probably 0.25-0.5% vs. 0.1%), but that it's not deadly enough to justify drastic changes to daily life, except perhaps for the most vulnerable.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

You know, GOP posters.

You belong to one of the only political parties in the western world that denies the existence of climate change as a real and man-made threat. Your party has overruled doctors, nurses and healthcare experts to impose bizarre restrictions on abortion. Your party has demeaned and belittled the scientific community as shills and liars for decades, in an astonishing display of projection.

Now, we're seeing, in frustrating detail what happens when a party indoctrinates its voters to ignore the experts on a range of scientific issues and instead trust the Trumps and DeSantis types of the world.

It doesn't surprise me that Extreme Republican and Fuzzy Bear believe they know more about epidemiology than Dr Fauci, or a suite of European doctors.

I just wish there was a way to prove them wrong that didn't involve the loss of further life.

I've never said to blow the "experts" off.  But "experts" often disagree, and the "expert" that is currently front and center was pretty much wrong 2 months ago.

Do we just leave the military to the "experts" (the Generals)?  Do we just leave Law Enforcement to the "experts" (the Police)?  We don't do that any more than we just leave everything to business "experts".  Experts see life through THEIR area of expertise, but their expertise is only one area of life.  Our civilian government's job is to balance these competing worldviews as much as possible.

I'm not anti-science, by the way.  I do live in the real world, however, and that real world is a world where there are alternatives for fossil fuels, but no substitute for fossil fuels.  Without fossil fuels, our way of life would be drastically impacted if we stopped using them all now.  That's another issue, but it illustrates the fact that this problem, as well as the climate problem, involves choices that have negative impacts that are significant, whichever way we choose.

I never claimed to know more about this than Fauci (although, I do think I have a decent understanding of epidemics for a lay man with no formal training).  Obviously, he knows a lot more about viruses than I do.  But, the epidemic itself is just one portion of the issue here.  We need to also listen to economists and mental health experts to come up with the best solution for as many people as possible.  We need to be more holistic than just saying that the only goal is to completely stop a virus.  By that logic, we should live in lockdown forever.  We would almost never get sick if we did that, but it would also be no life to lead.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/4 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | ↑18.97%)

4/3 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | ↑21.76%)

4/4 (Today):

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | ↑14.36%)

Yet another day in a row where the percentage increase in new cases was less than the day before (and testing is up again).  It wouldn't surprise me we're approaching the peak of new cases in the next couple days (the peak of active cases and deaths would follow a couple weeks behind), and we can start on the downward part of this curve by next week.

Bottom line is that I am confident that most business will reopen on May 1st.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Yet another day in a row where the percentage increase in new cases was less than the day before (and testing is up again).  It wouldn't surprise me we're approaching the peak of new cases in the next couple days (the peak of active cases and deaths would follow a couple weeks behind), and we can start on the downward part of this curve by next week.

Bottom line is that I am confident that most business will reopen on May 1st.

I think cases will drop soon, but the lockdowns will last until after the pandemic is effectively over.

That's because that's how our public officials and our media operate. They need an excuse to control us. I've noticed the media has had a really tough time containing their glee about this.

I know you will disagree, but I'm really thankful we have a president like Trump during this because he will be way more eager to reopen society than the average president would be.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I know you will disagree, but I'm really thankful we have a president like Trump during this because he will be way more eager to reopen society than the average president would be.

Trump and most of the governors (regardless of party) have almost all been terrible during this crisis.

I don't disagree with that; I will say that it's easy for us to criticize, but a lot harder to make decisions during a crisis.  I disagree with how far we have gone (over 40 governors of both parties have issued arguably unconstitutional lockdowns) and think we could have explored alternative strategies, but this is not an easy time for any of our leaders.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

To our posters who have gotten this virus (TSA, PQG, maybe someone else), are you feeling any better?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The Murray model has finally updated...and it looks good for America but bad for the "doom and gloomers".  The peak is now expected to come by mid-April, but the bigger news is that the death projections were revised down to 81K and that widespread hospital bed shortages are no longer expected.  The curves also look like things will be pretty much back to normal by May 1.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/jacobbogage/status/1248323451196248071

What percentage of Americans go to games anyway?  Plus, people are viewing it from the prism of today, not the prism of the coronavirus landscape when these events happen.

But, regardless, I'm in the minority of people who will have no hesitation about doing anything I normally would.  I'm not scared of this virus.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/jacobbogage/status/1248323451196248071

What percentage of Americans go to games anyway?  Plus, people are viewing it from the prism of today, not the prism of the coronavirus landscape when these events happen.

But, regardless, I'm in the minority of people who will have no hesitation about doing anything I normally would.  I'm not scared of this virus.

Nor remotely "scared" about potentially infecting countless other people with your recklessness.

As best I can tell your motivation is something about owning the libs. Truly awe-inspiring.

Please don't assume my motivations for anything.  A German study based on antibodies just concluded that this has a 0.37% fatality rate.  That's slightly worse than the flu, but not bad enough to justify keeping society shut down.  If people think that they are uniquely predisposed, they should be able to make personal decisions to self-quarantine past when it's no longer mandatory.  But all I said is that I'm going to go on living my life the day the government says I can and won't continue to isolate myself.  I'm not sure how that's controversial.

This has nothing to do with "owning the libs" (I've actually been following this since January and was told by friends that it was no big deal six weeks before everything shut down).  I can recognize that this is an extremely contagious virus but also that it's not a particularly deadly one.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does anyone have any sort of reliable data on the number of deaths from suicides and overdoses, as well as the rates of addiction and domestic violence since the lockdowns started?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/jacobbogage/status/1248323451196248071

What percentage of Americans go to games anyway?  Plus, people are viewing it from the prism of today, not the prism of the coronavirus landscape when these events happen.

But, regardless, I'm in the minority of people who will have no hesitation about doing anything I normally would.  I'm not scared of this virus.

Nor remotely "scared" about potentially infecting countless other people with your recklessness.

As best I can tell your motivation is something about owning the libs. Truly awe-inspiring.

Please don't assume my motivations for anything.  A German study based on antibodies just concluded that this has a 0.37% fatality rate.  That's slightly worse than the flu, but not bad enough to justify keeping society shut down.  If people think that they are uniquely predisposed, they should be able to make personal decisions to self-quarantine past when it's no longer mandatory.  But all I said is that I'm going to go on living my life the day the government says I can and won't continue to isolate myself.  I'm not sure how that's controversial.

This has nothing to do with "owning the libs" (I've actually been following this since January and was told by friends that it was no big deal six weeks before everything shut down).  I can recognize that this is an extremely contagious virus but also that it's not a particularly deadly one.

It's not just about the death rate though. This overwhlemed the hospitals in Lombardy. It overhwlemed the hospitals in NYC. I said this before and you didn't say anything.

The UW model has revised itself downwards on multiple occasions and now shows that most states are going to come nowhere near hospital capacity.  In fact, I've heard some reports of some hospitals becoming less busy than usual with the lack of elective procedures and other contagious illness.  While I didn't really agree with this aggressive of social distancing, we've kind of made our bed with it for the month of April.  Models show that cases will be quite low by May 1st.  I'm just arguing that we have to begin reopening then.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Some observations from the per capita maps:

3. The South has fared surprisingly well given that they were later to take precautions and in some states, more reluctant.  Florida has a problem, particularly in Miami, but it thus far did not see explosive NY style growth as feared.  Atlanta has thus far avoided the fate of New Orleans.

Part of it is weather.  While warmer weather isn't going to make the virus go away by itself, it does tend to spread slightly less effectively in warmer weather.  Much of the South has been in the 80s over the last few weeks, so that has probably slowed it a little bit.  I will say that cooler weather is forecasted for the next week or two, but probably still warmer than other parts of the country.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>

3/29: <Sunday>

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11 (Today):

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

New cases are lower than last Saturday.  It seems that the last week or so has been the peak of new cases, that we're right at the peak in hospital capacity (the UW model agrees), and that we are approaching the peak in deaths.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Visualized unexpected deaths in NYC.

So that seems to imply that there are a number of corona deaths not currently counted as corona deaths, no? Or is there a gap between when a death happens and when it can be confirmed to be caused by covid?

The other possibility is deaths related to the mental health toll of the shutdowns, which is probably not a negligible number.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

My state, Georgia, isn’t projected to peak until May 1 (as of now) with a total death projection nearing 4000.

Meanwhile California, which far surpasses us population wise, is only projected to have something around 1500 deaths total.

Why such a far discrepancy considering the population differences?

I certainly believe that the individual responses of the state governors is a major factor in this. I don't like Gavin Newsom, but he has run a strong response to the pandemic in California, while Brian Kemp is ignorant and deferred on taking action.

That doesn't explain anything.  Tennessee wasn't super fast in shutting down, and the UW model only projects 481 deaths and a peak of less than 10% of hospital capacity.  For every example supporting that story, you can find one that doesn't support it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Can blue avatars pick a story?

 One day it's "China lied, they're numbers are awful and way more people died."

 The next day it's "Covid-19 is a hoax and it's all overblown..."

Maybe not every blue avatar has the same exact thoughts?  And, maybe it can be true both that China lied and that the panic and shutdowns are overreactions?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I have no idea if this is true or not, but this would be a pretty massive thing to report if you weren't sure about it:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I know this is far less than many people are dealing with right now, but it is really tough to have your birthday during this- much less your rare Saturday birthday.