North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Nyvin]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

[Nyvin]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

They’d need to get SD-01.

Why would they want to try for that?   That's the rural seat in the northeast coast.  

That seat should be trending R if anything.   There's way better targets than SD-1.  There's SD-13 in Robeson,  SD-31 in Forsyth,  even SD-7 south of Pitt would be better than SD-1.

[Nyvin]

Here's a relatively clean map.



1 is 46.7% AA CVAP

9 is 37.2% AA CVAP

11 is 45.3% AA CVAP

1 and 11 would definitely be functional minority seats, 9 most likely would be an opportunity seat.

Probably is 8 Safe R, 5 Safe D, and 1 tossup (NC-7) to start, but over the decade NC-4, NC-10, and NC-14 would all be trending D.   By 2022 NC-4 might already be a tossup actually.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1daa5814-bfa4-4b55-b77b-6f3f3c9825e8

[Nyvin]

CJ Beasley is now likely to lose.  The late absentees and provisionals were surprisingly R, as they have been in other states.  So the court will be 4D/3R when it reviews the maps.  This leaves a couple of different scenarios:

1. Is one of the remaining D's known as a don't-rock-the-boat moderate?  Did any Dems dissent from or more narrowly concur in the decision throwing out the 2010's maps?  It only takes one crossover vote to defer to the legislature now.  

2.  If they are all committed liberals, they could go for broke in trying to set up the most Dem possible maps for 2022 knowing that they will almost surely lose their 1-seat majority in a Biden midterm anyway?

As of this morning Beasley is still ahead by 35 votes, but Robeson still has some provisionals.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1327628816345411585

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c23ca130-9d40-4d61-ac9d-64dc93727eda

[Nyvin]

Here's something resembling a least change map, aside from the god awful 5-10-13 configuration on the current map.







Raleigh+Cary is almost exactly 1 district.   Both NC-1 and NC-12 are 46.1% BVAP,  NC-6 is 35.9% BVAP.

NC-14 would be a swing district, I'd assume it's Trump16-Biden20.   So it's probably a 8-5-1 map overall (for now at least).

If the NCGOP were reasonable this would be a map they'd be happy with.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c23ca130-9d40-4d61-ac9d-64dc93727eda

[Nyvin]

The NC GOP has released a proposal of redistricting criteria for the upcoming session:

• Equal Population - Acceptable range for a district's population is within +/- 5% of the ideal population
• Contiguity - Districts must be contiguous, and water contiguity is sufficient
• Counties, Groupings, and Traversals - legislative districts should be drawn within county groupings, and within these groupings, county lines should not be traversed except in a few cases. The congressional plan must only divide counties for the purposes of population equalization and consideration of double bunking. If a county is of sufficient population to contain a CD within its boundaries, a district must be made entirely within that county.
  
• Racial data - Data identifying race will not be used as a factor when drawing districts
• VTDs - voting districts should only be split when necessary
• Compactness - a reasonable effort should be made to maintain compact districts, using as a guide the minimum Reock and Polsby-Popper scores
  
• Municipal boundaries - municipal boundaries may be considered when drawing districts
• Election data - Election results data and partisan considerations shall not be used in the drawing of districts
• Incumbent member residence - Member residence may be considered when drawing districts
• Communities of Interest - As long as a district plan complies with the other criteria, COIs may be considered in drawing districts

https://ncleg.gov/documentsites/committees/Senate2021-154/2021/08-09-2021/2021%20Joint%20Redistricting%20Committee%20Plan%20Proposed%20Criteria.pdf

So, does this pretty much exclude those Wake-to-Orange Dem vote sinks that I see all over the place from people?   I guess they can still do Miles Coleman's Guilford-to-Orange vote sink though.

[Nyvin]

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.

Four districts in Wake and four in Mecklenburg.   Yeah.

The NC-6 looks to be like Trump+8-ish or so, and the NC-13 looks around Trump+9.   Doubt either of those hold for the decade.

[Nyvin]

That's definitely 11-3,  I doubt cracking NC-1 would survive in the court.   

Weird they're putting Watauga into NC-11 though.

Cracking NC-6 was expected all along,  NC Republicans and all.

[Nyvin]

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.

The state suit happens first, not the federal one. Democrats would be stupid to sue in federal court, and there's no removal if the suit is based on the state constitution.

Yes, but as I also pointed out, the full NCSC will probably not rule on this until after 2022 when it will likely have a GOP majority. So both avenues are fruitless.

If an 11-3 map is upheld that's just more ammunition for Democrats to pass a national reform for redistricting and maybe make all the states redraw their maps.   

The way Republicans are playing with the debt ceiling, ending the filibuster is looking more and more likely nowadays.

I don't think it's as "hopeless" as you describe here though.

[Nyvin]

CBK-4 is what a normal, plain, fair map of North Carolina would look like.   There's really nothing awkward or forced anywhere, no tentacles, nothing.

CBK-5 is almost the same, it just has that weird arm of NC-11 up to Alleghany county. 

[Nyvin]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

Uhh, it certainly is why.   Democrats are the ones promoting at least SOME form of fair redistricting, like in Virginia or Colorado, or even legislation passed in Congress at some level.   Republicans are the ones completely gun-ho about gerrymandering as much as possible to their benefit.

[Nyvin]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

I’m not saying it’s the only reason. But it was definitely republicans that started the modern gerrymandering war with the old Texas, Louisiana, Florida maps of the 2000s & 2010s. Democrats also are playing in this, but we’re the ones trying to end it.

I think you are forgetting what Democrats did in NC for years. Republicans in NC at least are making maps that are too crazy

What happened in the past that's wrong doesn't justify what's done now that's wrong.

[Nyvin]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

I’m not saying it’s the only reason. But it was definitely republicans that started the modern gerrymandering war with the old Texas, Louisiana, Florida maps of the 2000s & 2010s. Democrats also are playing in this, but we’re the ones trying to end it.

I think you are forgetting what Democrats did in NC for years. Republicans in NC at least are making maps that are too crazy

...back when the Democratic party in states like NC and TX was still led by white conservatives. You may not be aware that a decade ago, Republicans saw gerrymandering as a necessary tool to achieve power, while the people advocating for commissions and independent redistricting were Democrats. Good government and independent redistricting are liberal priorities. After Republicans used gerrymandering to lock up state legislatures and Congress, many liberals said Inks this, let's go for the jugular, too.

Some stuff

Firstly part of the ugliness of the maps was forced by HW Bush forcing VRA seats that made no sense like the I85 district. That doesn't mean that was the only reason but it was a major reason.


Secondly , I am pretty sure Cooper  was involved to some degree in the 1997 mid decade court redistricting.  It isn't like it was all white dinos. The NC democrats were a multi racial party
Brad Miller was redistricting  chair in 2000 and drew his future CD. He was one of the most progressive  members and called for banking reforms that went quite far.  Cal Cunningham won a quite gerrymandered district back in 2000 as well.

This isn't to make an argument but it is important to note  that NC was not exactly DINO.

Infact in Georgia during the 2001 redistricting  John Lewis testified in court to help uphold the gerrymandering Roy Barnes drew. However compared to NC basically all those white Democrats are non existent after the Georgia GOP gerrymandered them out replacing them mostly with black liberals. Some of this was kinda the safe route as Atlanta and inner ring black areas faced low growth and some seats had to be cut to the suburbs so they didnt want to have retrogression arguments.. On the other hand the Georgia GOP has never drawn the fractals drawn by the NC/TX/FL GOP or DEMs at the CD level. They drew reasonable compact districts that didn't destroy communities .

I get so tired of hearing about stuff that happened 30+ years ago determining if what's going on today is justified or right.   

It was wrong then, it's wrong now, end.

[Nyvin]

If it’s wrong then why do Democrats do it now? And you can’t say well the Republicans are doing it so we have to do it to off set them… that crap and we know it. No matter who it is. The party in power will do what they can to help their party. There is no such thing as a fair map when you have people making them. They will alway bring in their bias view point.

And don’t say the Democrats made a fair map in NC, because even though their map was 7-7, it put Communities together that shouldn’t have been for the sake of making a more Democrat friendly map.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like everything about the Republican map, there are things I would change. But it is what it is.

Because letting Republicans gerrymander themselves into a permanent majority in the House isn't something the Democrats want to see happen.  Counter-gerrymandering in their states is literally their only real option at this time.

Unilateral disarmament doesn't work, it needs to be a team effort.

Make no mistake - Republicans absolutely are the source of the problem.   If Republicans wanted to, they could negotiate a congressional redistricting reform in the Senate that would pass the House and get Biden's signature. 

[Nyvin]

So here's a question I have: the 4th circuit is pretty liberal as of now. If the Republicans flip the state Supreme Court back and gerrymander the congressional districts again, why wouldn't the Democrats sue in federal court regarding the new NC-02 (old NC-01)? I realize the NAACP already sued because the legislature didn't use racial data but this seems less persuasive than simply saying that a district could have been drawn in Northeast North Carolina that would reliably elect the candidate of choice of the black population and it wasn't. Because of the 4th circuit I'd imagine success here would be more likely than the Texas or Alabama lawsuits. What would be the chances of a lawsuit like this?

Federal court doesn’t work because it ends up before the Supreme Court, who already ruled on the issue. Besides, even if the judges on the federal bench were all partisan hacks, it would be a pretty awful look to issue an opinion that directly flew in the face of a prior Supreme Court decision.

Basically SCOTUS said that gerrymandering litigation needs to be contained to the state level, so that’s why all of these lawsuits are now handled by state supreme courts.

That only applies to cases that argue on the merit of partisan gerrymandering.   Racial gerrymandering (which would be the case in NC-1) can still be argued in Federal Court.

[Nyvin]

I read through most of the court order but there isn't any real guidance on how to draw the districts other than mentioning metrics and generic measurements (efficiency gap, mean-median difference test, etc) and that it had to adhere to Federal regs and use whole counties when possible. 

The phrase the caught my eye the most was "If some combination of these metrics demonstrate there is significant likelihood that the plan will give the voters of all political parties substantially equal opportunity to translate votes into seats across the plan, then the plan is constitutional"

I'd read that phrase as requiring proportionality in all the maps to some acceptable degree.

Here's what I came up with for a state Trump won by 1.34%.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/921b5964-9f3a-4024-b5dd-520f0aeffbbd

The court might actually demand another Dem seat, but that's the best I could do while minimizing county splits.

[Nyvin]

Nice job. If you really want a 7th Biden seat have the 8th take in all of Cabbarus County

Ye Dems have a slight packing issue in NC, especially since a lot of their “mid sized” cities aren’t enough to make a blue leaning CD (Winston Salem, Asheville, and Fayetteville).

I heeded this advice, since that's the most likely place for a 7th dem seat.






https://davesredistricting.org/join/2475684a-c73c-4263-a6c1-947c274bcb2c

I think this is an authentic 8-7 map,  the courts would probably like it.

[Nyvin]

Great news! Dumb (but not surprising) for the GOP to try to pass a map just as partisan as the map that was rejected for use in the 2020 election.

I think this is an authentic 8-7 map,  the courts would probably like it.

I don't think the courts will allow an 8-7 map.

duh, oopps.

[Nyvin]

I wasn't sure if the post about Wasserman that you just deleted, was serious or not.

My map has the same basic config as his, just I split way fewer counties, although I don't get zero deviation, that's too much work.

I don't know why 8-7 got into my head for NC.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1489764964244074496

[Nyvin]

Hot take- In this environment and given the trends in the black belt/results in similar seats, the black belt seat will flip unless they add Durham to it or something like that

This would be totally fine since the district that has the rest of Durham county along with Orange and Chatham will still be safe D,  and the black belt seat will be MUCH more Dem.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/d7c4144a-e6d9-4e4d-b993-01aa273eb149

[Nyvin]

Looks like a map to maximize competitive districts, and uncrack Guilford/Forsyth.

If Republicans manage to win that NC-8 this year, it'll be a two year rental and nothing more.

[Nyvin]

At least the northeast rural districts are "somewhat" better than before.

[Nyvin]

Senate map with 25 Biden districts.  I don't know if some deviations are too high, I just made sure they're lower than 12k.  I kept most of the proposed map's county groupings the same.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/09fda123-ab7b-4a36-8a43-719f1bfea181

[Nyvin]

Senate map with 25 Biden districts.  I don't know if some deviations are too high, I just made sure they're lower than 12k.  I kept most of the proposed map's county groupings the same.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/09fda123-ab7b-4a36-8a43-719f1bfea181

Why do you put black areas of Greensboro, Charlotte, and Fayetteville with white rural/suburban areas?

For Greensboro and Fayetteville - Because Blacks would still easily control the Democratic Primaries in those districts (literally all of them).

I didn't really change much about the Charlotte districts, I tried to just copy the proposed map, no need for any changes there.  (The Fayetteville districts are changed *slightly*)