2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Nyvin]

Gerrymanders also have a shelf life.    After 8 years the demographics and voter interests of the districts are bound to change, especially in high growth districts like VA-10.   

The same thing happened in Pennsylvania in 2000-2006.   Republicans built a gerrymander in the state but by the end of the decade Democrats actually held a majority of the seats.

[Nyvin]

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https://apnews.com/63c4fccca46841bdad47257f9776c361/Grim-warnings-for-White-House,-Republicans-ahead-of-election

I've heard this argument said on this very forum dozens of times.

[Nyvin]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/florida-2018-elections-miami-27th-828642

FL-27:

McLaughlin - Salazar 51, Shalala 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6b-d715-aded-effbe69b0000

Bendixen & Amandi - Shalala 46, Salazar 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6c-d9ba-a1ef-efefea440001

Yuck.   Even if it is a GOP internal those are bad numbers.   Why why WHY did we nominate Shalala???

[Nyvin]

On Sabato there's now more R-held lean/likely/safe D seats than there are D-held seats on the list altogether.

[Nyvin]

Monmouth poll for CA-50 coming out tomorrow.  That'll be interesting if the dates are after the indictment.

[Nyvin]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

I'm assuming you mean professions still dominated by old white men.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1046934251755565056

If this is an attempt to keep donors in the race for him, it really falls flat.

[Nyvin]

CNU had Jennifer Wexton up 10 over Comstock a week ago...and now they have Taylor up 7 over Luria. Not everything is rosy in the House for the Dems.

Can we start applying this #analysis to other elections around the country?

[Nyvin]

Throw it in the average. There are always going to be polls at the lower bounds.

Why would there by a WAVE Election IF

# 1 We've the lowest UE Rate in 50 Years!
# 2 The GDP is rising
etc...

You & many others absolutely ignoring the Economy like it's unimportant. It isn't.

For a lot of people the economy is actually pretty crappy.

[Nyvin]

This poll has the Colorado generic ballot at D+9.

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2018_colorado_political_climate_report_election_topline_10-21-18.pdf

RIP Coffman, but we already knew that. Could it be enough to put Tipton in danger though?

Considering Colorado was was R+1 (with the national house margin being R+1) in 2016, this translates to a D+9 generic for the nation. Seems a bit too high.

Why is it too high?   Also the Colorado vote won't follow the national vote exactly.

[Nyvin]

UNH poll of NH showing Pappas ahead by +9, and Kuster ahead by +15.

UNH is...not the best exactly.   But good news.   Probably just throw it into the mix.

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2018_fall_cong102218.pdf