Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There will be no viability threshold, according to CNN.

Unlike Democrats in the past, Republicans will have only one round of voting today and no threshold.

The GOP and Dem caucuses operate differently.
It's more of a shotgun primary than anything else, really.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trump: 46%
DeSantis: 23%
Haley: 22%
Vivek: 7%
Other: 2%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

lol

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"My supporters would walk over broken glass to vote for me"
Donald Trump

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The fact that the NYT needle is for 2nd place and not the winner kind of says it all, huh?

Yeah.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

Well, caucuses are an unethical way to hold an election, so I'd say it cancels out.

No they aren't.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

Well, caucuses are an unethical way to hold an election, so I'd say it cancels out.

No they aren't.

Caucuses are a form of voter disenfranchisement. Why should voting be a circus? Just fill in the bubble/press the button, and be done with it.

Caucuses reflect a distinct and different organizational ability and are an entirely legitimate way to organize this sort of thing. Calling them "voter suppression" is laughably hyperbolic. It detracts and devalues the word. Not that you have zero experience in that endeavor...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's OVER for GOP enthusiasm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747079618878730535

Isn't the weather awful up there right now?

It's indeed bitterly cold in Iowa. I heard/saw there were wind chills down to -40 degrees F there today.

When Fox cut to Haley speaking in Clive, Iowa, I googled Clive iowa and the weather, Google said, was at -4.
Just ouch...not that people have let the weather stop them from turning out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's OVER for GOP enthusiasm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747079618878730535

Isn't the weather awful up there right now?

It's indeed bitterly cold in Iowa. I heard/saw there were wind chills down to -40 degrees F there today.

When Fox cut to Haley speaking in Clive, Iowa, I googled Clive iowa and the weather, Google said, was at -4.
Just ouch...not that people have let the weather stop them from turning out.

I wonder what turnout for Biden would be like had they voted today.

Probably relatively low. IA being stripped of its status by proxy, combined with the race being non-competitive, would definitely impact turnout.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

Casey is politically ambitious, which is a big part of deciding who fills these jobs. These sorts of things are influenced by connections, who knows who, just as much (at least as much) as some sense of qualifications. If her husband got the connections, those can just transfer to her... it's not all that strange. Your own state is having Tammy Murphy lining up for a run... same thing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

What state are you from and who's the frontrunner to be its next Senator?

Andy Kim...?

Who has the state Democratic party unanimously coalesced around?

And who is the Governor married to?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This turnout is looking horrific, too.

It’s not surprising given the weather and lack of suspense.

Indeed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

Reminder that I was just one or two seats off in my congressional prediction in 2022.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fox News Decision Desk called 2nd place for DeSantis.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not that it matters but here is tonight's delegates won:

Trump- 20
Desantis- 9
Haley- 8
Ramaswamy- 3*

* not sure how they handle delegates of someone who has dropped out.

Add that to the Trump column implicitly. Ramaswamy endorsed Trump.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Vivek endorsed Trump

Watch Trump give Vivek the job of Ambassador to India.

That'd be perfect.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ugh … desantis talking upbeat about how Iowa just punched his ticket (to where? Goodness, who knows). He won’t be dropping out

Haley has only HERSELF to blame that DeSantis isn't dropping out. Saying that NH needs to correct Iowans, the Civil War Flub. She made some pretty big mistakes down the stretch in Iowa.

I think DeSantis would have dropped out had he gotten 3rd in Iowa.

Say you were Haley and were trying to do as well as possible. What would you have done differently?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Haley's speech is quite good. Very feisty.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who's the next poor soul who hires Jeff Roe.

Ted Cruz has already re-hired Jeff Roe for his 2024 Senate Re-Election Campaign I am told quite awhile ago.

Congratulations to Collin Allred...