Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[Compuzled_One]

And Trump just had to attack a dying man.  There's no bottom to that barrel.

(pretends to put on shocked expression)

Who?

Wait...is it Carter?

[South Dakota Democrat]

And Trump just had to attack a dying man.  There's no bottom to that barrel.

(pretends to put on shocked expression)

Who?

Jimmy Carter

[Compuzled_One]

And Trump just had to attack a dying man.  There's no bottom to that barrel.

(pretends to put on shocked expression)

Who?

Jimmy Carter

F'ing asshole, let Jimmy have peace.

What did he even attack him for? And why?

[John Dule]

And Trump just had to attack a dying man.  There's no bottom to that barrel.

(pretends to put on shocked expression)

Biden?

[South Dakota Democrat]

And Trump just had to attack a dying man.  There's no bottom to that barrel.

(pretends to put on shocked expression)

Biden?

Can't tell if you're trolling, but Jimmy Carter.

[Frodo]

Turnout is just 110.000, of more than 3 million, or 3-4%.

That is really low.

For example, Iowa's general election had 1.7 million votes in 2020.

There are no Democratic caucuses happening in the state at the same time, and it is not like the outcome in either was ever really in doubt. 

[Pres Mike]

Someone mentioned this earlier, but turnout was really low - out of about 750,000 registered Republicans in IA, only about 110,000 seemed to have shown up to vote, a turnout rate of about 15%.

Do you think Trump's share of the vote would have been different had turnout been higher, because I'm personally unsure.

Well, there is currently a blizzard in Iowa

[South Dakota Democrat]

Someone mentioned this earlier, but turnout was really low - out of about 750,000 registered Republicans in IA, only about 110,000 seemed to have shown up to vote, a turnout rate of about 15%.

Do you think Trump's share of the vote would have been different had turnout been higher, because I'm personally unsure.

Well, there is currently a blizzard in Iowa

Dangerously cold, but no blizzard, is my understanding.

[wbrocks67]

I knew better than to listen to the CNN panel. Also, why do we have 3 Republicans on the panel (David Urban, Holmes, and Farrah-Grriffen) and just 1 Dem (Bedingifeld)? I honestly hate these hack panels and wish we'd get rid of *all* the partisans and just have actual analysts, but seems incredibly lopsided.

[Pres Mike]

Someone mentioned this earlier, but turnout was really low - out of about 750,000 registered Republicans in IA, only about 110,000 seemed to have shown up to vote, a turnout rate of about 15%.

Do you think Trump's share of the vote would have been different had turnout been higher, because I'm personally unsure.

Well, there is currently a blizzard in Iowa

Dangerously cold, but no blizzard, is my understanding.

Gotcha. Down south we have several inches of snow with more on the way, so thats basically a blizzard for us

[wbrocks67]

All in all, looks like DeSantis will finish 2-3% ahead of Haley. A truly disastrous performance for her. There was also a lot of hype about party switchers but it looks like that hasn't materialized at all, something that should be noted for next week as well.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I remember when Cruz won IA in 2016. Trump gave a speech looking all sad, and people thought the result meant Trump’s campaign had  lost its momentum (“looks like Iowa built a wall around Donald Trump”).  8 years later, people think his IA win suggests indomitability

Cruz didn't win Iowa by 30 points.

His actual vote total will be similar to what Cruz finished in 2016 though . Just a couple thousand more, looks like

And ? Taking 50% in the caucus whatever the turnout, is no small feat.

After all, you were predicting the blizzard to benefit Haley and for Trump to receive low 40s.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

And Trump just had to attack a dying man.  There's no bottom to that barrel.

(pretends to put on shocked expression)

Who?

Jimmy Carter

He never attacked Carter, he said that "even Jimmy Carter's commission said mail in ballots were fraudulent" or something. He mentioned him but not negatively.

[South Dakota Democrat]

And Trump just had to attack a dying man.  There's no bottom to that barrel.

(pretends to put on shocked expression)

Who?

Jimmy Carter

He never attacked Carter, he said that "even Jimmy Carter's commission said mail in ballots were fraudulent" or something. He mentioned him but not negatively.

No.  He was saying that Jimmy Carter looks brilliant next to Biden and is no longer the worst president, since Biden has now taken that title.

[Ferguson97]

Vivek out

https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1747111796266201564?s=46

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Vivek really did epic fail for all the media attention he got.

[NOVA Green]

Well ultimately calling DeSantis #2 in IA is probably the correct call considering the gap.

There simply aren't enough counties where Haley could significantly make up the gap, unless there happens to be certain precincts with tabulation errors, or dramatic shifts in results from outstanding ballots from the relatively small number of precincts remaining in which counties she has small leads.

[Pres Mike]

Vivek really did epic fail for all the media attention he got.

His entire campaign was to help Trump and it worked

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fox News Decision Desk called 2nd place for DeSantis.

[2016]

I remember when Cruz won IA in 2016. Trump gave a speech looking all sad, and people thought the result meant Trump’s campaign had  lost its momentum (“looks like Iowa built a wall around Donald Trump”).  8 years later, people think his IA win suggests indomitability

Cruz didn't win Iowa by 30 points.

His actual vote total will be similar to what Cruz finished in 2016 though . Just a couple thousand more, looks like

And ? Taking 50% in the caucus whatever the turnout, is no small feat.

After all, you were predicting the blizzard to benefit Haley and for Trump to receive low 40s.

Wrong, DeSantis deserves massive credit for playing the Expectations Game right! After the CNN Iowa Debate Anderson Cooper questioned him about Iowa and Ron didn't take the bait.

Now Haley will have to debate DeSantis in NH after only getting 3rd. Sununu himself claimed Haley would get a strong second in IA. The Haley Campaign played their Expectations Game wrong while DeSantis overperformed Polling Averages by 4-5 Points.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I remember when Cruz won IA in 2016. Trump gave a speech looking all sad, and people thought the result meant Trump’s campaign had  lost its momentum (“looks like Iowa built a wall around Donald Trump”).  8 years later, people think his IA win suggests indomitability

Cruz didn't win Iowa by 30 points.

His actual vote total will be similar to what Cruz finished in 2016 though . Just a couple thousand more, looks like

And ? Taking 50% in the caucus whatever the turnout, is no small feat.

After all, you were predicting the blizzard to benefit Haley and for Trump to receive low 40s.

Wrong, DeSantis deserves massive credit for playing the Expectations Game right! After the CNN Iowa Debate Anderson Cooper questioned him about Iowa and Ron didn't take the bait.

Now Haley will have to debate DeSantis in NH after only getting 3rd. Sununu himself claimed Haley would get a strong second in IA. The Haley Campaign played their Expectations Game wrong while DeSantis overperformed Polling Averages by 4-5 Points.

I didn't say anything about DeSantis in that post lol.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not that it matters but here is tonight's delegates won:

Trump- 20
Desantis- 9
Haley- 8
Ramaswamy- 3*

* not sure how they handle delegates of someone who has dropped out.

[Lief 🗽]

Very low energy results for all three of the candidates IMO. Trump barely wins a majority in a fake primary that everyone knows he's going to win. Rob edges out Haley while still being humiliated by Trump in the only state DeSantis was seriously competing in. Haley comes in THIRD, behind a meatball.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Haley loses Johnson County by 8 votes. 8 votes made the difference between Trump sweeping every county and not.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Very low energy results for all three of the candidates IMO. Trump barely wins a majority in a fake primary that everyone knows he's going to win. Rob edges out Haley while still being humiliated by Trump in the only state DeSantis was seriously competing in. Haley comes in THIRD, behind a meatball.

Exactly this. Kind of bad for everybody compared to expectations.