Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

Jaichind's posts (a majority of them, anyway) have been insightful and a net good for this thread, and tbh, he adds more to this thread than a majority of posters do.
Lay off please.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1496851833549111306?t=4exQQlREwR_bfqAxhL2V6A...

US doesn’t share its border with Iraq

Say the US sent troops into Mexico or Canada as part of a long-planned incursion. How long would it take for them to destroy all their air defenses?

Less than a day, if there is no consideration for civilians and US can just sent rockets everywhere.

Sounds about right. Russia, like us, is quite capable of mass rocket attacks. I'd be scared for whoever was fighting us if we had Russian doctrines.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

Jaichind's posts have been insightful and a net good for this thread, and tbh, he adds more to this thread than a majority of posters do.
Lay off please.

Both him being very insightful and greedy can be true at the same time.

Of course. Never denied that. Of course, given my inclinations, I don't care about how much he cares about his investments, and him talking about the markets adds variety and informs us of the pulse of the business class at the moment. Fine by me!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The way the USA should be countering Russia on the medium run is a "Hydrocarbons New Deal" with an all out fracking effort.

While that's not at all an ideal fight to pick, should the US pick that fight, that is how it would best be waged.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

Jaichind's posts have been insightful and a net good for this thread, and tbh, he adds more to this thread than a majority of posters do.
Lay off please.

Both him being very insightful and greedy can be true at the same time.

Of course. Never denied that. Of course, given my inclinations, I don't care about how much he cares about his investments, and him talking about the markets adds variety and informs us of the pulse of the business class at the moment. Fine by me!

"The pulse of the business class" at the moment is mostly concerned with whether or not to boot Russia out of SWIFT, which would have implications for the real economy, especially in Mitteleuropean countries. The pulse of the speculator class, which is what jaichind is interested in, is the same reality-free arrhythmia it always is.

Ok, you have some good points. I'd still have them rather than not have them, but you are correct about the realities of the markets.
My favorite part of Jaichind's posts, and this is a part I like very much, is what he has posited about grand geopolitical questions. It doesn't hurt I mostly agree with him on what the US should do here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wouldn't completely trust what either side says about who has control over Hostomel until there's good evidence besides "he said, she said".
But it's simultaneously quite interesting to see the spin being put out by political figures here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1496944661256097793?t=Tl0-GOlpOZeZ8VE2e...

Good, if Ukraine can't win with official military forces, they should drag Putin into costly asymmetric warfare. Sooner or later this would hurt his standing on Russia.

It's definitely fair game for Ukraine to use Russia's methods against it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anyone have a good source for the progress of the battle? It seems like there just isn’t any information at all which is to be expected but presumably there is massive fighting happening right?

Fog of war is a real thing. We don't know much yet, but there certainly fighting going on.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wouldn't completely trust what either side says about who has control over Hostomel until there's good evidence besides "he said, she said".
But it's simultaneously quite interesting to see the spin being put out by political figures here.

The thing is it's Ukrainian sources that are going back and forth. They could have lost initially and then are throwing fresh units at it I suppose.

Interesting.
In that case we could reasonably assume, though not with total confidence, that  they have lost the airport, then tried to regain it over and over.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

Ah, interesting. Thanks for the info.
What does BAU stand for?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

Ah, interesting. Thanks for the info.
What does BAU stand for?

Business As Usual

Ah. Thanks again.
Do you think it's quite possible that Putin enforces the Minsk Agreement and extensive federalization on Ukraine in case of a quick victory?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anyone have a good source for the progress of the battle? It seems like there just isn’t any information at all which is to be expected but presumably there is massive fighting happening right?

Bearing in mind parts of this could be wrong.

Russians have air superiority taken out early in the day equipment at airports and anti-aircraft systems. Helicopters operating in western Ukraine support this.

Russian forces have stalled coming out of Donbass and Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine.

Russian and Belarussian forces have successfully moved south from Belarus. They're in Chernobyl which is a lightly populated natural pathway to take going from Belarus to Kiev. Blame appears to be too light a defense posture.

Russians have successfully moved north from Crimea. This front appears to be the greatest failing for Ukrainian defense.

A military airport right next to Kiev is in combat right now after Russian Airborne landed there. This op appears to have taken Ukraine by surprise that it happened first day of war. It's fluctuated in reports from Ukrainian forces of fallen to Russia to Ukraine has taken it back. If Russians take control of the airport they can fly in military equipment in cargo aircraft and lut it on Kiev's doorstep.

If Ukraine loses the airport, then it will probably make a short war much, much more likely, as it could likely make the war seem irrevocably lost.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One interesting question would be how much of Russia forces massed at the border have been deployed in battle?

That's perhaps even the million dollar question. I would not be surprised if some were being held in reserve.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

I think the biggest indicator as to how well Russia will eventually do is how many reports there are of Russian airplanes being shot down. Russia doesn't have the same qualms bombing cities as America does, and airplanes are the main means for them to do so.

While these victories Ukraine is getting are without a doubt impressive relative to expectations, it might still end up pretty badly for the country in the long run if Russia has to fight for this (likely) win.

Yes, I do consider a Ukrainian victory a very slim possibility at this stage. Uncertainty and all...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And as a public service, here is a detailed map of Ukraine to help everyone keep track of where everything is as this conflict continues:

Thank you very much, good Sir.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’m pretty sure these Russian troops who are currently engaged are the professionals (the Russian army is much less reliant on conscripts than it once was), which makes me highly sceptical of these reports of surrendering and low morale (especially since that’s obviously the kind of impression the Ukrainian government would want to create).

Not the first time I've said this, but it's important not to take the Ukrainian goverment's official line as unconditionally true at face value. No government should be treated that way.
If anyone remembers the Nagarno-Karabakh conflict, that had a lot of this stuff as well, but in time the fog of war cleared and the truth was revealed.
Modern wars are not fought just in the field, but also on the internet. Information, social media, narratives...these can be quite valuable things.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At Japan PM Kishida's press conference he was fairly evasive on what actions Japan will take.  All questions on what steps or changes in policies Japan will take beyond some very limited sanctions produced the same response from Kishida "It is a very serious situation that affects the international order including Asia. We must show our intention not to allow the change of the status quo by force."  

Of course back in 2014 Abe was eager to get Russia's help on the return of the Northern Islands so Japan did not join in the sanctions.  This time around there are some nominal sanctions.

Japan's foreign policies are heavily influenced by its role as an American vassal state. In practice it's much like an Asian Germany in terms of its overall role in the region, and it falls under the American security umbrella for protection. This means that because there isn't a major issue standing in the way of Japan joining America's line on this topic, it is thus likely having to join in sanctions. It doesn't have to copy what America is doing, but it does end up having to take one or two steps in that direction.

Japan used to have Russia as its main opponent, but after the fall of the Soviet Union, the Self-Defense Forces have shifted their focus to China and countering its rise (as well as North Korea).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hearing chatter about a potential ceasefire. Anyone got concrete info?

Where are you hearing this?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1496980444868493316

Zelensky showing some moral fiber.

Putin did this for sake of his legacy. But Zelensky is also seemingly acting under the same lines.
Will be interesting to see how the two men act over the course of the coming days and weeks.
The future of Ukraine will likely be decided by these two men, someway or another.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Matt Chance of CNN saying the Su-27 taken down over Kiev was Ukrainian, not Russian.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497051901107466243

Damn that sucks.

Both Ukraine and Russia are broadly reliant on ex-Soviet hardware (Ukraine moreso than Russia if I had to guess).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can this thread not devolve into a debate over immigration? Thanks.

I'd like to redouble this request.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a USGD thread covering the domestic American side of this issue.
Please take any immigration debates there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have a hard time believing some of these statements from Ukraine. They come across more like something said that is wildly untrue in some of its particulars, and said to boost morale at what might be a trying time for Ukrainian morale, than something actually true. Fog of war, and assymetrical warfare, are for sure being used by both sides for their own purposes.