Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It was Western policies that created the Russia we have today.

Putin literally said yesterday that the existence of Ukraine was an aberration and the former Soviet republics had no right to secede. If NATO hadn't expanded then Russia would have invaded and annexed the Baltic states and be Finlandising Poland.

It's a very close-minded thing to say, that the Russia of today was an inevitability. In general, you can't separate Putin's statements from yesterday with the climate of yesterday. Politicians say politician things in response to the political environment, and everyone ought to know this. And Russia's power receding gave NATO nations the deciding power in Eastern Europe to determine the political environment there, just as the Soviet Union had that same power in the five decades prior. In both cases, that power was quite evidently used.

In long-term geopolitics, Eastern Europe has become a borderlands, where Russia, among the strongest power centers in Europe going back centuries, has been dominant when it is strong, and barely notable when it is weak. We live in a time when Russia has recovered and is teamed up with strong allies that will cover its flanks so that it can focus on areas to its west (there's basically minimal Russian land military assets in the Far East at this point - no points for guessing where they were moved).

Putin is a profoundly disillusioned figure who knows what the long-term policy of America is - more well-read about it than he was in 2000, in all probability. He's a good opponent. He knows how the game is played, and so do we. America had decided the cadence of the Eastern Europe, and so Putin is taking a stand in a place where he's got his best chances.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Nordic_News/status/1496152649904930821
Let's burn Earth down to own Russians 

This is dumb, but protecting the interests of Finland (in this case, moving to do something that harms on the climate change front) is the job of the political class of Finland. The political class is allowed to make dumb decisions. They are human and make mistakes all the time, just like the rest of us.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia's effectively correct in recognizing territorial integrity as just another tool to keep it down - highlight when convenient for me, ignore when convenient to thee.

This is basically correct, but not all separatist movements are created equal. The Very Fair Crimean Referendum was conducted without a status quo option and with a bunch of Russian soldiers milling about, so I think it's hardly indicative of the popular will in Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk never even got a referendum of any kind. I don't think even an actor who was genuinely committed to the absolute self-determination of peoples would necessarily be compelled by their own logic to support these regions' joining Russia.

Further, I don't think it's unreasonable to support independence movements in some regions but not in others due to external factors. For example, although I'm generally sympathetic to declarations of independence, I am extremely unsympathetic to the independence of the American South for obvious reasons. It's a different situation, but revanchist sentiments in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea have pretty clearly been drummed up by the Kremlin in service of cynical geopolitical goals. It's possible that the world's interest in preventing Russian imperial expansion might outweigh the interests of Ukrainian Russians wanting to join Russia.

It was Western policies that created the Russia we have today. If we sought to integrate it into our coalition more rigorously when Yeltsin was president, or stopped moving NATO east when Putin was president the first time, or in general just gave the starving bear some room, we'd be in a better position against China now.

You might be right with respect to adding Russia to our sphere – we'll never know now – but I think you're off base with the point against NATO expansion. There's no reason to believe that Russia wouldn't simply be throwing its weight around in the Baltics like it is in Ukraine. If anything, the events of today seem to suggest that the optimal strategy was to rush NATO's borders east as quickly as possible; Russia doesn't seem willing to provoke direct confrontation with NATO. The fact that Russian expansion is limited by NATO is also a benefit to the United States broadly, beyond its being the right thing to do. Under NATO's aegis, the Baltics have grown to about 75% of Ukraine's GDP with like 15% of its population. Friendly nations with large markets like that are exactly what China is working so hard to establish. If we forfeit Eastern Europe to Russia, beyond subjecting millions to unjust despotic rule, we're leaving allies and markets on the table.

To be clear, I don't support a 100% dogmatic territorial integrity no matter what sort of philosophy, because as you said, there are considerations that vary in how they play out from region to region. I myself support Bougainville independence, though I tend to be more skeptical of independence movements generally than most people would.

I'd agree completely with you re: NATO expansion being good for American interests, IF this was just Eastern Europe we're talking about here. In the long run, we've harmed our broader global interests. In retrospect, I think we got too greedy. If in this era when geographical armor makes for less and less, a power based in North America can vassalize (for lack of a better word) most of Eastern Europe, then Russia can enlist the support of a power on the other side of Eurasia for sake of shoring up its position. We live in a globalized world, and in a globalized world where we are all interconnected on some level, then it's easier for these sorts of coalitions to work.

America's now got Russia, China, and Iran in adversarial position, and if we aren't careful, we could also lose Turkey, Burma, and other players. We shouldn't overextend ourselves;  we ought to divide the other spheres and leave them at some level of odds with each other. Half of Eurasia is opposed to us. That's a dangerous position and I worry for our national security. The threat this Eurasian coalition represents is enough to make the extremist groups we fought in the 2000s and 2010s look like a joke, and that's saying something.

It's the job of Ukraine's political class to look after Ukraine and its national welfare. I hope Ukrainian soldiers don't die. At the same time, we have duties to our own people. We can't fight Kiev's wars for it, and in the broader geopolitical stage, Ukraine was, is, and is likely to remain in the Russian shadow. It's not a fight we, America, should spend much political capital on. Yes, it's not a good position to be in, to be obsessed with fighting yesterday's wars. But if you have supreme power and you treat yesterday's wars as present day's wars, then it can implicitly become so. That's exactly what happened with Russia. Since we shouldn't have fought on those grounds to start with, we should abort the fight. Let's remake the playing field in our favor.  Our thinking got us here, our thinking can get us out of it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think so. I see a lot of people from other countries pointing fingers on Nord-Stream 2 and the gas dependence to be the roots of German appeasing approach towards Moscow. It surely is one of the reasons, but not the major one. German culture and mentality have by far the largest impact on its foreign policy.

 People learn from school to reject anything related to war. I, who went to school in Ukraine as well as in Germany, have noticed a great difference in the way history is brought to the students. German history books don't praise national heroes or military leaders. In fact even while describing wars the focus always seems to be NOT on generals and battles, but on suffering of simple people and on diplomatic efforts to solve the conflict.

It is also popular in german pop culture to mock the US and its militarism. Going to war to defend Ukraine in case of Russian attack isn't and has never been even an option here. In fact even speculating about any kind of military operation could mean a political suicide. As recent polls show, the majority of Germans even seem to oppose any new sanctions against Russia. In contrast people seem to prefer either a status quo, or even lifting current sanctions and making steps to reestablish a friendly relationship with russian government.

 Long story short: ignoring the social aspects and reducing the issue to just "Germany wants cheap russian gas" is stupid and won't help you to understand the motives.

Came across this interesting comment in a Youtube comment section, regarding the German government's seeming softness (trying to use a neutral descriptor here) on this issue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It makes zero sense for Vietnam to pick either side. They may as well be Switzerland here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It makes zero sense for Vietnam to pick either side. They may as well be Switzerland here.

Speaking about Switzerland:

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1496559219214069760

₽500 (500 rubles) says that Putin and Co have a significant amount of money parked in Swiss banks.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who cares if Putin said in 2002 that it was between Ukraine and NATO if Ukraine was a NATO member?
It's not 2002 anymore.  In 2002 America was sending troops into Tora Bora, Saddam was still president of Iraq, and it was only five years since Handover happened in Hong Kong.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

There's no evidence of A and C, and insufficient evidence of B. I think (this is slightly oversimplifying it but whatevs) the reason he's doing it is that he thinks this is the best opening he'll get and he wants to be remembered as the man who stopped NATO's eastward expansion right in its tracks. And he doesn't trust the West's word either. So he'll remake the situation here, right then and now. He can then negotiate from a position of strength.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

The reason Putin did what he did in 2014/2015 with Donetsk and Luhansk was that he wanted Donetsk and Luhansk to influence Ukrainian foreign policy - in particular, to have an effective veto over Ukraine further integrating with the west, via a federal structure stemming from the Minsk agreeement. And since Donetsk and Luhansk are Russian puppet states, that would have meant that Putin in effect could veto that.

However, it became clear that Ukraine was not going to allow its policies to be vetoed by the self-proclaimed Donetsk/Luhansk "People's Republics." And the problem for Putin was also that Crimea and large parts of Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts were out of Ukrainian control, meaning that those areas (the most pro-Russian areas of Ukraine) no longer were sending representatives to the Ukrainian parliament etc and were no longer influencing Ukrainian policy. So the absence of Crimea especially made the part of Ukraine that was left more pro-western overall.

It would be as though you had Russia come in and annex Texas. That would make America more pro-democrats overall and shift the country to the left.

So this was not working for Putin, and in fact in some ways was making things worse for Russian influence over Ukranian policy. So the only way he can now reassert Russian influence over Ukranian policy is by some sort of regime change, which requires an invasion and war.

Interesting points, thank you.

I would like to redouble this sentiment.
Only thing I'd add at the moment is that in 2010, iirc around 90% of pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukvych's winning margin came from Crimea.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Welcome to Russian shock and awe tactics - now they are being used online.
Please stay safe everyone.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

To wish for total annihilation of either side of this conflict in this conflict is barbaric. This ought to be short, as bloodless as possible, and with as minimal a toll as is feasible on human life.
Keep a level head, people. Jesus Christ.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will Ukraine be able to use its supply of Turkish drones well?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will Ukraine be able to use its supply of Turkish drones well?

Likely depends upon where they are located...

If reports are correct and Russia has basically taken out all Ukranian Military Airports then where would the Command and Control centers be operating out of?

The Turkish drones are generally from my understanding more of anti-tank, APC, etc type hardware, so yeah if they are still operable might be able to slow down a potential Russian armored convoy from Belarus towards the Capital, but at the same time even if there are operational capabilities in various areas they would be a bit split between what is now an extremely large front against a much larger and developed military machine.

Yeah, I guess this further explains Russia destroying Ukrainian military airports.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How well is this video from three weeks ago holding up?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ummmm....does anyone want to tell them?

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1496758611418169346?s=20&t=XI6awEHR0lw...

Remember the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh? It was marked with a lot of the same dishonesty and self-serving rhetoric from boatloads of political actors.
It is best to take NOBODY uncritically in this saga. Russian, Ukrainian, or otherwise.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I must say that the situation is terrible. But so far I'm fine. At the moment, I am taking my family out of my city to the village where I have a house. Details will be announced later, if possible

Good to hear confirmation that you are safe.
May the toll of this war be as minimal as possible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1496731416272457732
These are not accurate rockets, but they cause a lot of damage over a wide area.

Since when does the Ukraine operate American MLRS?

It is not American I don't think (?). MLRS does refer to a particular American design specification, but it can also refer more broadly to the category of mobile truck carried rocket artillery, ultimately descending from the Soviet Katyushas of WW2.

The Ukrainians are hugely reliant on ex-Soviet weapons. I would be mildly surprised if those MLRS were not ultimately Soviet in origin.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Artillery strike in Uman, Cherkassy

It is particularly sad to read that. Uman for example is a place where in 1941, Russian and Ukrainian soldiers fought together side by side and were encircled by the early German advance into the Soviet Union. And now some of their grandsons/great grandsons are attacking their other grandsons/great grandsons, in the same places.

For shame.

This may as well be the war in a nutshell. Two peoples who together basically dominated the Soviet Union's upper echelons now at war with each other, fighting partially with weapons from that time, on ground they once defended together.
The collapse of the Soviet Union was the biggest reordering to the geopolitical order in Eastern Europe since the Partitions of Poland.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Zelensky is a great guy. I hope he survives this war politically. Even if Ukraine gets carved up, it wouldn't be his fault, but rather the sum of decades of growing mistrust between Putin and American administrations.
Ukraine is but one chess piece without much autonomy on the world stage overall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is the end of the post-Cold War era in terms of geopolitics and possibly the biggest testcase for the Western "liberal institutionalist" approach towards international politics to date. If there are no credible sanctions, that approach is over. And China will invade Taiwan this year still.

You could quite likely be right.
I would agree this is probably the biggest test of liberal internationalism to date.
The problem with any sanctions is that Russia is much, much better prepared than in 2014. The biggest winners in case of sanctions is in fact China, as it eats more business that other countries would get. Unless NATO countries are willing to do the most severe sanctions and for about a decade or more, I have doubts we see actual results.
Liberal institutionalism needs to be malleable and flexible or else it will begin to fail. If it begins to fail, that failing would likely start now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

India has to tread carefully as Russia is their main arms supplier.

Arms they need to halt the Chinese from continually violating their territorial integrity.

This is why what PRC and Russia has is better than an alliance.  It is really two Great Powers that are coupled and act as one as needed and act separately as part of plausible deniability when necessary.  India's position on Russia would be a lot more negative if PRC and Russia were official allies.

This also highlights that Russia aligning with China is good for Russia, but not "too good" for Russia. If it goes far enough, it becomes a massive net bad for Russia. Vietnam is another country that would be strongly anti-Russia if it was too close to China.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is against the national interests of Germany if Russia doesn't have access to SWIFT. No wonder the government is opposed to that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Both the PRC and Russia have built up alternative payment messaging systems so on the medium run I suspect Russian can survive losing access to SWIFT but it will be very painful on the short run.

Couldn't Germany also connect to these alternative payment systems if they really needed to? Germany does lots of business with Russia and China, so I could see voices in favor of them doing that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1496851833549111306?t=4exQQlREwR_bfqAxhL2V6A...

US doesn’t share its border with Iraq

Say the US sent troops into Mexico or Canada as part of a long-planned incursion. How long would it take for them to destroy all their air defenses?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

A poll a few days ago showed that not even a third of Democrats believe America should play a major role in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and a majority believed it should play a minor role.
Rs were even less likely to support a muscular American role.
The American public doesn't care about the Ukraine conflict, until proven completely wrong otherwise. We sit one ocean and one continent away from it, when Ukraine is just a hop away from the Russian border.
Forumlurker is correct in that America just isn't prepared pyschologically to pay the economic cost of punishing Russia for this.