Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At least the fighting has stopped and the fire has been put out.

A victory for Russia on all fronts. The plants have shut down, Germany has been spooked, and people are only getting more scared of what Russia could accomplish.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyway, the West clearly appears to be approaching the limits of sanctions. The shift towards seizing the yachts and homes of Russian businessmen abroad clearly smacks of desperation.

I don't see it as desperate at all. Giving the oligarchs a direct personal incentive to get back to the pre-invasion situation (by getting rid of Putin) seems like an obvious move. Many (arguably most) of the playgrounds of the rich are located in Western countries or small island nations dependent on the West, so if those are off limits it becomes a lot less enjoyable to be an oligarch.  

Yeah but the vast majority of these people aren’t important to the decision making process in Russia. They may be wealthy but they’re politically impotent. There are exceptions, like Igor Sechin (CEO of Rosneft), but people like that are fully aligned with Putin’s worldview and their fates are bound together with his.

Honestly, isn't it a bit rich (forgive the pun) to (rightfully) be critical of Russia's rule of law standards, then seize Russian oligarchs' property just because Russia's involved in this war?
It's one thing to essentially force oligarchs to sell things (see: Abramovich and Chelsea), but just unilaterally seizing things like this undermines property rights, one would think.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I laughed hard at this.
Linking it here for sake of anyone else who might find it funny/nice to watch/whatever.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3809437-wheat-futures-add-to-14-year-highs-up-32-so-far-this-week

Wheat Futures are up by 30% !

Ugh, a lot of African and Middle Eastern countries depend on Russia or Ukraine for their wheat imports. The sowing season is supposed to start in Ukraine soon, but that's not happening. Western sanctions against Russia will also disrupt Russian imports. There will have to be carve-outs for grain exports for developing countries.

Yeah this could be really ugly, combined with other factors we may actually have a famine in certain areas

Expect a potential wave of instability in the Arab World if governments aren't careful.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think I might just stop posting on this thread or minimize, since it doesn't really appear anybody gives an "eff".

Maybe better to shift and share news to my social network on Facebook, where at least it will get a much greater reach both domestically and internationally.

Please continue posting! Your contributions are much appreciated!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Brazil: Boris Johnson called Bolsonaro to discuss Russian Invasion of Ukraine per CNN:

"British PM Boris Johnson called Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro over war in Ukraine

From CNN's Camilo Rocha in São Paulo and Jaide Garcia

"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Thursday to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to CNN affiliate CNN Brasil.

The British leader reminded Bolsonaro that Brazil was a “vital” ally during the second World War, and that Bolsonaro’s voice was “crucial” in this moment of crisis, CNN Brasil reported.

A spokesperson for Johnson said both leaders agreed on "demanding an urgent ceasefire" and agreed that "peace must prevail."

According to a statement from Johnson's spokesperson, the prime minister added that "innocent civilians are being killed and cities destroyed, and the world cannot allow President Putin’s aggression to be successful.”

CNN reached out to Brazil's government for comment and has not received a response.

Some context: Bolsonaro has so far avoided condemning or sanctioning Russia, saying Brazil was taking a "neutral" stance.

He argued sanctions would impact the Brazilian economy as well, pointing out that the country's agriculture depended on Russian fertilizers.

During a weekly livestream on social media Thursday, Bolsonaro said, “Brazil remains in a balanced position and we don’t have the capacity to solve this issue."

"

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-04-22/index.html

Brazilian neutrality really shows here. It took a very generalized statement covering neutral concepts for BoJo's spokesman to be able to say they fully agreed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the Ukrainians have Zaporizhzia back, it won't do them much help unless they can also use its power (something they evidently consider too risky right now).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the Ukrainians have Zaporizhzia back, it won't do them much help unless they can also use its power (something they evidently consider too risky right now).

I'm thinking more for the well being of everyone around the plant (and the wider world) that nuclear facilities should be in the hands of the Ukrainians as opposed to the inept and malicious Russian troops.

Oh, that's (likely) true.
It might be the best of all possible scenarios anyway, for both Ukraine and Russia as well as everyone else. Ukraine not wanting to use the power means the Russians have no real military reason to target the plant, and the Russians don't have to try to take it. And the wider world doesn't have to worry about bad things happening there. Of course it also sucks for Ukraine that a significant chunk of their power network is unavailable.
The Russians already got everything they needed in regards to Zaporizhzia anyway. Increase fears of nuclear accidents, and reduce Ukrainian power supply. Both big ticket items.
Fortunately for Ukraine, the rest of the war isn't going quite as good for Russia as this is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1500230617404956678

Vogel writes that there are discussions to use Venezuelan oil as a substitute for Russian oil (presumably, after lifting sanctions on one and imposing them on the other). These are different kinds of crude oil (Venezuela's is heavier and dirtier), so I'm not sure this would actually work.

This is a good thing, regardless of the fact that it won't have any immediate short term impacts on oil pricing.

The US has long had a pretty poor history dealing with Latin America going back somewhere around 120 years, and things got a lot worse sometime in the 1950s and 1960s.

Nothing wrong with trying to figure out a longer term deal which will isolate Russia from Venezuelan crude oil, negotiate dialogue between the Venezuelan Government and Opposition, where return to normalization of the political sphere (Elections, Freedom of Press, Judiciary, Labor Unions, etc...) while simultaneously providing high quality US Oil savvy to help modernize the decrepit state of their Oil Industry, with state run oil profits continuing to fund food, housing, and social programs for the urban poor who suffered so much at the hands of the previous governments and corruption as part of the "Petrol Curse".

Could well be a win-win scenario all around ??

Let's hope for the best here.
It's good geopolitical thinking to give Russia less room to have outright allies in Latin America, anyway...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of the Royal. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide it blockade or a bargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously. China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.

There's a LOT of potential and contemporary oil and gas consumers in the Third World.
I think for this to really work, we need the support of the Arab World. Otherwise, Putin can sell oil to Arab governments and then they can de facto circumvent the sanctions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of the Royal. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide it blockade or a bargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously. China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.

There's a LOT of potential and contemporary oil and gas consumers in the Third World.
I think for this to really work, we need the support of the Arab World. Otherwise, Putin can sell oil to Arab governments and then they can de facto circumvent the sanctions.

 And those 3rd world consumers are already purchasing gas and oil at the levels they need. Yes, theoretically some countries could buy up access Russia Russian gas at a cut throat low price, but who is really ready to do that? Mark Eritrea? North Korea?? And the rock bottom price Russia would have to sell it at is is going to further seriously harm Russia's bankroll.

These (oil-importing) third world countries would be signing up for de facto economic warfare against themselves if they were going to go along with sanctions on Russian oil, and what's more, some of them have long bought Russian. Russian oil being in the mix impacts supply and demand. Oil imports getting more expensive would be taxing to these countries.

The long-term costs of a sanction of Russian oil and gas would likely be met in significant part by Western consumers. Yes the Russians would pay a significant cost, and it's not necessarily insane economically for America, but sanctions of this sort are likely not territory that is economical in the long-run.

We actually help our ability to help Ukraine if we only do what is economical anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of the Royal. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide it blockade or a bargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously. China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.

There's a LOT of potential and contemporary oil and gas consumers in the Third World.
I think for this to really work, we need the support of the Arab World. Otherwise, Putin can sell oil to Arab governments and then they can de facto circumvent the sanctions.

 And those 3rd world consumers are already purchasing gas and oil at the levels they need. Yes, theoretically some countries could buy up access Russia Russian gas at a cut throat low price, but who is really ready to do that? Mark Eritrea? North Korea?? And the rock bottom price Russia would have to sell it at is is going to further seriously harm Russia's bankroll.

These (oil-importing) third world countries would be signing up for de facto economic warfare against themselves if they were going to go along with sanctions on Russian oil, and what's more, some of them have long bought Russian. Russian oil being in the mix impacts supply and demand. Oil imports getting more expensive would be taxing to these countries.

The long-term costs of a sanction of Russian oil and gas would likely be met in significant part by Western consumers. Yes the Russians would pay a significant cost, and it's not necessarily insane economically for America, but sanctions of this sort are likely not territory that is economical in the long-run.

We actually help our ability to help Ukraine if we only do what is economical anyway.

 You are missing the point. No one is talking about a worldwide embargo on Russian oil and gas. That would be great to come up with no 1 is expecting that period we're talking about Is an American embargo on Russian oil and gas. You see, Russia has a tremendous amount of financial investment in their oil and gas exportation. So if it is reduced, and there are not going to be other people buying as much, then Russia makes less money. There won't be magically other people to buy oil at the same price should we induce such an embargo.

For this sort of thing, I'm inclined to go big or go home. It's a largely meaningless gesture that on net taxes Americans marginally, IF this is a US-only thing. The zeitgeist is already making it sort of done anyway, as corporate America has decided to virtue-signal once again and they benefit from higher prices from the exclusion of Russian oil and gas from the market. The major markets for Russia aren't in America anyway, they are elsewhere. (Like India, I would assume)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

If you have google translate on your computer it should translate the page for ya. Also i have a translated version but it's a long article and I wasn't sure if I'm allowed to post the entire text on here.

You can also go the Russian website itself and simply left-click "Translate to English".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of the Royal. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide it blockade or a bargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously. China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.

There's a LOT of potential and contemporary oil and gas consumers in the Third World.
I think for this to really work, we need the support of the Arab World. Otherwise, Putin can sell oil to Arab governments and then they can de facto circumvent the sanctions.

 And those 3rd world consumers are already purchasing gas and oil at the levels they need. Yes, theoretically some countries could buy up access Russia Russian gas at a cut throat low price, but who is really ready to do that? Mark Eritrea? North Korea?? And the rock bottom price Russia would have to sell it at is is going to further seriously harm Russia's bankroll.

These (oil-importing) third world countries would be signing up for de facto economic warfare against themselves if they were going to go along with sanctions on Russian oil, and what's more, some of them have long bought Russian. Russian oil being in the mix impacts supply and demand. Oil imports getting more expensive would be taxing to these countries.

The long-term costs of a sanction of Russian oil and gas would likely be met in significant part by Western consumers. Yes the Russians would pay a significant cost, and it's not necessarily insane economically for America, but sanctions of this sort are likely not territory that is economical in the long-run.

We actually help our ability to help Ukraine if we only do what is economical anyway.

 You are missing the point. No one is talking about a worldwide embargo on Russian oil and gas. That would be great to come up with no 1 is expecting that period we're talking about Is an American embargo on Russian oil and gas. You see, Russia has a tremendous amount of financial investment in their oil and gas exportation. So if it is reduced, and there are not going to be other people buying as much, then Russia makes less money. There won't be magically other people to buy oil at the same price should we induce such an embargo.

For this sort of thing, I'm inclined to go big or go home. It's a largely meaningless gesture that on net taxes Americans marginally, IF this is a US-only thing. The zeitgeist is already making it sort of done anyway, as corporate America has decided to virtue-signal once again and they benefit from higher prices from the exclusion of Russian oil and gas from the market. The major markets for Russia aren't in America anyway, they are elsewhere. (Like India, I would assume)

snip

Is Russia a comparatively large oil and gas supplier to the US? I assumed not. I had not looked at statistics.
Had to look it up.
Russia supplies 7 percent of our imported oil. That's not a lot. It's even less considering that a huge chunk of our oil is domestic and not foreign. But let's not try to tell ourselves that banning Russian oil will do much for Ukraine at all.

What Ukraine most needs is stability in Eastern Europe so that it's not borderlands for west-east conflict (if possible), and what it does not need is to be a warzone.

I favor big, grand gambits and even-handed compromises to entrench a status quo that will leave Ukraine in peace and allow us to focus on countering China in a reasoned way. But as a pragmatist I can see why politicians would favor something quick and easy, something that virtue signals but barely changes a thing, over something that does more profound and lasting change but might be quite hard.

I stand by my words about fetishizing action in policy being an unideal thing from a policy standpoint. There are indeed times when doing nothing is the best approach, when things not done is just as important to boosting one's position than things that are done.
EDIT: I was however massive wrong about Indian oil imports. Only 2 percent of India's oil is imported from Russia. Comes to show this is an area my knowledge is relatively weaker in.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TBH GoTfan through most of this conflict I was in the same mindset as you but now I’m actually having doubts Ukraine is actually gonna fall. The initial invasion stage as gone so bad for Russia I’m really having my doubts they will successfully pull off an invasion

I'd be very, very careful about assuming that. Let's not forget, Russia still possesses an extremely heavy advantage almost everywhere, and I can't see them retreating anytime soon. They've also sustained an advance rate of roughly 60-70 km a day, which is roughly what an armoured division can be expected to do. And like you said, this is only the initial stage.

The problem Russia has is that every hour this drags on, the worse the economic pain is going to be for them. And the longer this drags on, the more I can see the possibility of the US and EU blanket banning Russian oil and gas. If the public will is there, they'll do it. If they do it, Russia is finished because their only market will be China, and the Chinese will be able to set the prices because Putin will be desperate for cash.

While Russia does hold the advantages on paper and are still advancing they are facing terrible logistical issues, they failed to knock out Ukraine’s Air Force which is causing havoc on the ground, we are fastly entering spring which means those tanks and mechanized divisions get stuck in mud, and the more and more time Russia is running behind schedule the more Ukraine can get western weapons and mobilize reserves and civilians

Honestly, everything about this invasion can be summed up with that saying from Clarke and Dawe:

"The front fell off"

"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No one is claiming that there is a single m**** w*** come up including Is the US  Is cutting off Russian oil and gas to solve this matter. As a small business person, if I lose a client that is 7% of my yearly intake, that is a major kick in the balls. And a friend of that 7% client follows suit, that's additional kick in the balls.

We get it. You have an America first isolation as policy policy that would rather not raise the price of the pump 50 cents a gallon then help the Ukrainian people. Whom, I might add, are the ones saying dear God please help us by imposing this embargo.

You can't have as both ways. You can't on the one hand claim thatSuch an embargo is going to do terrible things to Joe consumer at the pump, and yet simultaneously claimed that it's a fart  In a whirlwind that won't effectively hit rushes natural resources economy.

You misread my source and have implicitly undercut your own argument.
It's not that America is 7% of Russia's business, it is that Russia is 7% of America's business. It's easier for us to cut off Russian hydrocarbons than our NATO allies anyway - we get a majority of our foreign oil from Canada, which, like Russia, is a mostly frozen land with lots of fossil fuels.

Do you think Europe can live without Russian natural gas indefinitely? Perhaps you might, but basing policy around the idea that they can and will is unwise and imprudent.

It is true we could lock Russia out of our markets should the will exist for it, as one NATO bloc, but this would impose on us an economic cost that would tax our ability to maintain our very way of life to a degree that I doubt we'd be able to do it. We shouldn't just ask "would it hurt Russia", we should ask "would it hurt us too, and if so, how much". And let's be clear here. The mere fact Ukrainians ask for something isn't evidence it's a good thing to do. The American government decides American foreign policy, and American interests don't necessarily square perfectly with Ukrainian ones, even if there is certainly a fair bit of overlap.

As Shua said about no-fly zones in a USGD post, it is the duty of the Zelensky government to ask, and it is the job of NATO to refuse, or something along those lines. Zelensky has every right to ask for X and Y, but NATO, and the US, have their own distinct interests and things ought to be considered on a case-by-case basis. No singular country ought to control our foreign policy, not even Ukraine.

Furthermore, we cannot let this war cloud from us the fact that China is the single most formidable adversary of this country. The steps we are taking are in fact only empowering China, indirectly. The scale of the sanctions are forcing Russia to rely on China, and a Russia reliant on China and a China implacably opposed to us is the worst of both worlds for America. Sanctions are also a limited tool. They make sense in the narrow context of this war, but not only do we have to deal with diminishing returns, but we also see them get less effective over time to begin with. Most sanctions must end as soon as the war is over, because a Russia disconnected from international institutions is one that we lack leverage over.

We must preserve liberal internationalism when possible, and the optimal means to do so are realpolitik-driven, stable policies that prioritize long-term thinking over short-termism. Short-termism has kneecapped American FP for quite a bit of time, and it has actively enabled Putin and other figures to (generally correctly) assume we can't be relied to follow through on our commitments. Just look at the TPP fiasco. Foreign partners know that our broader geopolitical posture can do a total 180 whenever the party in Oval Office changes.

With all due respect, "America first isolation policy" is thus a very flawed way of describing this. Just because I don't really unquestioningly support the zeitgeist doesn't mean I am an isolationist. Moreover, I agree that America should be very engaged in the world, I think we need to be deliberative and thoughtful about the steps we take, and I think the administration's generally got it right on this. And per my own admission, I underestimated the effectiveness of sanctions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another "Down Under" Update from The Guardian 2 Hrs ago---

"Australian PM Calls on China to Stop Russia"

China must act on its declarations of promoting world peace and join the effort to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Australia’s prime minister said on Monday, warning that the world was in danger of being reshaped by an “arc of autocracy”.

Reuters reports that Scott Morrison also suggested in a wide-ranging speech that Russia’s invasion was not going according to the plan of its leader, Vladimir Putin, who he said had “overestimated the capacity of how he might be able to prosecute this illegal war”.

“China has long claimed to have a role as one of the major powers in the world and to be a contributor to global peace and stability. No country will have a bigger impact on concluding this terrible war in Ukraine than China,” Morrison said in response to a question after a speech at the Lowy Institute think tank.

“I was listening for the voice of the Chinese government when it came to condemning the actions of Russia and there was a chilling silence,” he said.

China has declined to call the Russian attack on Ukraine an “invasion” while asking western countries to respect Russia’s “legitimate security concerns”. It has called for a solution to the crisis through negotiations.   "

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/06/

It's an election year in Australia, and ScoMo is cosplaying as John Curtin. Not surprising.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Okay.  But our media is saying that Putin is not loved by a majority of citizens.  They say the same thing about all our enemies.  Most French People loved Napoleon even though he took dictatorial powers, and conquered the Austrians.  It was a different story in Spain. 

Where things went wrong?  You're the first person to not say "Mueller", "Bush", and "Cheney" intentionally lied so they could subsidize the military industrial companies of their friends and associates.  Why is this so hard to accept?  Is it cause Cheney hate Trump so she must be good.  I wonder how much money she's making with the Ukraine conflict.

What's interesting about the information you're providing about the Bath Party being prevented from work in the public sector is the fact that their Russians in Ukraine claiming that they weren't allowed public jobs cause of their associations with Russia.  They couldn't run for government positions, and they were routinely harassed.  Now you're saying it's a pattern? Yeah.  I saw the pattern for this Ukraine Conflict coming way back in 2018, and then I was sure it would happen when Biden won the election. 

The fact of the matter is that if I was a Russian Dictator that had promised to bring parts of the Soviet Empire back into the fold, I would absolutely take Ukraine for its economic and military importance as soon as Biden took office.  And boneheads will still continue to push for this absurd money-making Iranian deal for John Kerry, despite this administration being made fool of by multiple 'potential' and 'current' allies.   

And honestly, what we should have done in Iraq was left Saddam Hussein cause he was doing a good job managing an Iraqi population where almost 50% were inbreeding, and an eye-dropping small minority are estimated to be pedophilias cause that's a religion.  We couldn't even consider your suggestion about the Bathist, because the Bush Administration and Intelligence Agencies consistently and continuously lied about the situation.  Why wasn't anyone in the integrity Administration of Bush 2 brave enough to leak that information like was done for Trump? 

There's a lot you said in this post I disagree with, but if what you said is true - that some people are claiming they were being blacklisted from public jobs because of associations with Russia - then it seems fair to say that Petro Poroshenko didn't exactly do Ukraine favors with his policies. And you are quite right; the media claims the same things for all our opponents, rivals, and adversaries, regardless of the real truth. For the time being, here's a recommend.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500696413788938241

Reminds me a bit about the "Coalition of the Willing" here. I.e. the US tries to get wide-ranging European support, fails, decides to just go it alone with some closer European allies (Denmark, UK, etc).
This war keeps minting Iraq 2003 parallels. It's eerie.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...

There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

I didn't see this one coming. Wow.
I would guess PM Kishida looked at Japanese public opinion in regards to the Ukraine crisis and decided this was a good move on that basis.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As much as Russians are suffering from the effects of sanctions, they can still take solace in McDonalds (for now):

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1500954446066593794

But can they still eat at Pizza Hut? Asking the real questions here....

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...
There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

I didn't see this one coming. Wow.
I would guess PM Kishida looked at Japanese public opinion in regards to the Ukraine crisis and decided this was a good move on that basis.

This was an unnecessary distraction.  He would have been better off keeping his head down and not making any territorial claims. 

Not sure what I think about this move. Most likely rationale is that he might be betting on a weakened Russia down the line having to cut a deal with Japan.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502723221371731976

Lol

Baghdad Bob called. He said Saddam is doomed to lose against America.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another way that individuals are attempting to spread info about the War in Ukraine to Russian citizens per the WSJ an hour ago.

It's a long article and includes various stories of individuals who have been using the tool, conversations they are having, etc...

Using a New Cyber Tool, Westerners Have Been Texting Russians About the War in Ukraine

Website developed by hackers is new initiative in West’s battle to counter Russia’s propaganda campaign

People around the world are using a new website to circumvent the Kremlin’s propaganda machine by sending individual messages about the war in Ukraine to random people in Russia.

The website was developed by a group of Polish programmers who obtained some 20 million cellphone numbers and close to 140 million email addresses owned by Russian individuals and companies. The site randomly generates numbers and addresses from those databases and allows anyone anywhere in the world to message them, with the option of using a pre-drafted message in Russian that calls on people to bypass President Vladimir Putin’s censorship of the media.

Since it was launched on March 6, thousands of people across the globe, including many in the U.S., have used the site to send millions of messages in Russian, footage from the war, or images of Western media coverage documenting Russia’s assault on civilians, according to Squad303, as the group that wrote the tool calls itself.

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“Our aim was to break through Putin’s digital wall of censorship and make sure that Russian people are not totally cut off from the world and the reality of what Russia is doing in Ukraine,” a spokesman for Poland-based Squad303 said.

The spokesman, a programmer who asked not to be identified, likened the effort to such Cold War-era projects as the U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe, which beamed radio programs in several languages across the Iron Curtain. Nearly seven million text messages and two million emails have been sent using the website since it was created a week ago, he said.

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The Journal reviewed the websites’ code as published by the authors and tried several numbers served by the database, which turned out to be in service. Whether the entire database is made up of existing numbers and email addresses couldn’t be verified.

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/using-a-new-cyber-tool-westerners-have-been-texting-russians-about-the-war-in-ukraine-11647100803?st=2ocms0xzgqzntxz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The more the war drags on, the more it looks as though information and the sharing of information could become the Achilles Heel for Russia.