Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

It certainly could impact plans relating to QUAD if Russia gets a high enough focus in US defense plans, but then again, India always looks out for itself first and foremost, and its relationship with Russia has never been, as far as I know, negative as a whole. India, QUAD or no QUAD, was always likely to want to adhere to an autonomous geopolitical strategy calculated to help Indian interests above all else.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

It sounds like these types of actions are actually being performed by Polish Border guards and are being actively looked at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-news/#link-26HKARWXPJGFRBRUGGX7UFJ5NQ

Ukraine needs to correct the record on this as soon as is possible. Just conceding free points to Russia like that is political malpractice.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It certainly could impact plans relating to QUAD if Russia gets a high enough focus in US defense plans, but then again, India always looks out for itself first and foremost, and its relationship with Russia has never been, as far as I know, negative as a whole. India, QUAD or no QUAD, was always likely to want to adhere to an autonomous geopolitical strategy calculated to help Indian interests above all else.

For me, India is the key swing power of the future in the struggle between the Western Alliance and the Euroasian bloc (PRC-Russia.)  This is why the PRC antagonizing India over the last couple of years is extremely foolhardy.  Good news for PRC is, India has a strong sense of independence and is unlikely to join the Western alliance and will insist on it being its own separate independent Great Power.

I agree completely.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Russian ministry of Defense admits that "some" Russian soldiers have been captured by the Ukrainians.  But just like the USA 2003 playbook they also claim that these captured soldiers are being "tortured" by the Ukrainians.  The Russians also claim, from the same 2003 USA playbook, that the Ukrainians in Kyiv are using phosphorus munitions which are banned by the UN.

Honestly who cares what is or what isnt banned by the UN. We can use common sense to decide what is right or wrong and Russia is clearly the bad guys here and any measure the Ukrainians use to stop or resist them is justified

My point is, just like 2003 USA claims about the Iraq military using chemical weapons against the USA, I think this Russian claim is bogus.

The white phosphorus claim sounds like it's mainly for domestic consumption, and partially for international PR.
Also, is white phosphorus even in the Ukrainian arsenal of tactics? Is it in Russia's?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What impact do y'all think this war will have long-term, in regards to Turkey's role in NATO?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What impact do y'all think this war will have long-term, in regards to Turkey's role in NATO?

Sultan Erdogan will make Turan real and an integral part of NATO to dab on the Chinese.

Recommended for sake of the A+ meme.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/MarkWarner/status/1497995063745413125?cxt=HHwWioCsndyk-ckpAA...
Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee opines that Russia's using just some of its cyberattack capacity.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/02/27/romney-russia-putin-geopolitical-foe-obama-sot-reax-bash-sotu-vpx.cnn

Wow Romney bashes President Bush here to just not Obama and Trump

Bush pussied out on Russia just like Obama and Trump did

Bush was tricked by him. Obama was naive and Trump was complicit.

That's a fair analysis tbh

I would go so far as to say that we wouldn’t be talking about Russia now if 20162012 was different.

FTFY

This is true. Obama's administration openly supported the 2014 protests that toppled Ukraine's pro-Russian president. This was a mistake that Romney would be unlikely to make, though for sure, he would make others. Obama talked about a "new start" with Russia, but his administration poisoned the well (unintentionally). Of course, it's not clear how Romney actually would have dealt with Russia. Most likely, the next Ukrainian election after 2014's protests just results in the election of another pro-Russian president.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/02/27/romney-russia-putin-geopolitical-foe-obama-sot-reax-bash-sotu-vpx.cnn

Wow Romney bashes President Bush here to just not Obama and Trump

Bush pussied out on Russia just like Obama and Trump did

Bush was tricked by him. Obama was naive and Trump was complicit.

That's a fair analysis tbh

I would go so far as to say that we wouldn’t be talking about Russia now if 20162012 was different.

FTFY

This is true. Obama's administration openly supported the 2014 protests that toppled Ukraine's pro-Russian president. This was a mistake that Romney would be unlikely to make, though for sure, he would make others. Obama talked about a "new start" with Russia, but his administration poisoned the well (unintentionally). Of course, it's not clear how Romney actually would have dealt with Russia. Most likely, the next Ukrainian election just results in the election of another pro-Russian president.

Romney also keep in mind in 2012 ran on the US taking a far more protectionist approach towards Russia AND China.

Which in most scenarios just advances forward many of the talking points of the Trump years to earlier in the decade, I guess.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/02/27/romney-russia-putin-geopolitical-foe-obama-sot-reax-bash-sotu-vpx.cnn

Wow Romney bashes President Bush here to just not Obama and Trump

Bush pussied out on Russia just like Obama and Trump did

Bush was tricked by him. Obama was naive and Trump was complicit.

That's a fair analysis tbh

I would go so far as to say that we wouldn’t be talking about Russia now if 20162012 was different.

FTFY

This is true. Obama's administration openly supported the 2014 protests that toppled Ukraine's pro-Russian president. This was a mistake that Romney would be unlikely to make, though for sure, he would make others. Obama talked about a "new start" with Russia, but his administration poisoned the well (unintentionally). Of course, it's not clear how Romney actually would have dealt with Russia. Most likely, the next Ukrainian election just results in the election of another pro-Russian president.

Keeping in mind the fact that a LOT could change post-2012 if Romney wins,  please posit what you think would be a likelier scenario.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The only way Turkey closes the Bosphorus would be if they feel Russia is too weak/preoccupied to force the strait to reopen:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498038656875081740?s=20&t=p7zLIjGZr...

Huge news.
My guess is that Erdogan saw this as a chance to beef up his NATO credentials and win support in Ukraine, and on a personal level he probably dislikes what is going on in Ukraine as well. So he's closing the straits, to take a big step in favor of his NATO allies.
He knows Russia can't afford war with Turkey right now.
It's also worth noting that sentiments in the Arab World and wide sections of the Muslim world in general are broadly pro-Ukraine, and that in Turkey, the specific issue of the Crimea Tatars is not at all forgotten.
Many Ukrainians study in Egypt, and Ukrainians are surprisingly involved with the Muslim world more broadly.
There's also the very long history of adversarial relations between Turkey and Russia to consider here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'll be real honest, while Putin has brought this upon his forces and himself, i can't help but be unnerved by the huge amount of major weapons NATO+allies are supplying both directly and openly.

Kinda freaks me out to think where the Russian perspective crosses the line from "Ukrainians are using some NATO weapons against us" to "NATO is basically at war with us"


Also perhaps this is just from me working in a bank, but i'm withdrawing 200 Euros tomorrow in smaller bills tomorrow. I would not be surprised if cyber attacks start this week.

I hope i am just overreacting here as i usually do.

Imo, the pivot point that scares me most is "We want regime change in Ukraine" vs "They've done this much to us, we may as well annex Ukraine, wholesale - what have we left to lose?". It does make strategic sense for NATO to give Ukraine lots of weapons, using the war as a pretext. (All this assumes Russia wants regime change, which is not necessarily clear)
The uncertainty of what's going on in the minds of the Russians is the scariest part of this entire saga.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The only way Turkey closes the Bosphorus would be if they feel Russia is too weak/preoccupied to force the strait to reopen:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498038656875081740?s=20&t=p7zLIjGZr...

Huge news.
My guess is that Erdogan saw this as a chance to beef up his NATO credentials and win support in Ukraine, and on a personal level he probably dislikes what is going on in Ukraine as well. So he's closing the straits, to take a big step in favor of his NATO allies.
He knows Russia can't afford war with Turkey right now.
It's also worth noting that sentiments in the Arab World and wide sections of the Muslim world in general are broadly pro-Ukraine, and that in Turkey, the specific issue of the Crimea Tatars is not at all forgotten.
Many Ukrainians study in Egypt, and Ukrainians are surprisingly involved with the Muslim world more broadly.
There's also the very long history of adversarial relations between Turkey and Russia to consider here.

Important correction, Tim. Derogatory knows Russia can't afford war with NATO right now.

Yes, that's correct. Turkey+Ukraine is too risky for Putin. NATO+Ukraine is magnitudes worse.
Turkey already has among the most powerful militaries in the region (though the specific ranking depends on what is meant by "region", and I'm probably not completely unbiased here). NATO as a whole?
It's not worth it.
The reason people flee losing battles is so that they can survive another day.
The reason countries seek terms is so that they can have semblance of strength when the war is over.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1498042188495790084

I'm extremely impressed how decisive and unified the EU is acting in this crisis so far, which was never guaranteed given their usual decision making process. And I'm saying the latter as someone who was always pro-EU and an admirer of the EU concept.

Furthermore, it's a true blessing Joe Biden is the president right now since close cooperation and coordination between the US and EU is critical.

I think I very likely underestimated how effective NATO and crew would be this time with their usual approaches of sanctions and EU membership.
Russia still needs to be disentangled from China, but Russia doesn't want to be completely entangled with China either. Russia values strategic autonomy - much like India in that regard.
This is an area that needs prudence and caution going into the future but it does look like Russia's played its hand rather badly here, and the window for them to turn it around is shrinking.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

Sunday morning, 8:00 AM.

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

We've had like 60 pages in the last day, so I'd say Saturday or Sunday

These are both looking unlikely now. Posting in this thread slowed down a lot, not sure why.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1498048621027246086

If Russia and Ukraine are "bother nations", Ukraine and Belarus are twins.

Yes.
Back in 1900, Ukrainians were commonly referred to as "Little Russians", Belarusians as "White Russians", and ethnic Russians themselves as "Great Russians".
Putin may have a stronghold on Russian public opinion, but in Belarus, it's likely not too much has changed since Lukashenko was "re-elected".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

Sunday morning, 8:00 AM.

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

We've had like 60 pages in the last day, so I'd say Saturday or Sunday

These are both looking unlikely now. Posting in this thread slowed down a lot, not sure why.

I've been trying my best to spread the Gospel today!

Tomorrow I'll be a lot slower since I need to go onsite for work, so won't be able to post until I get home.

Best of luck, man!
As usual, we appreciate your contributions and see you as a valuable poster.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969
Russian state media accidentally pre-published Putin’s planned victory speech.

The upshot, Ukraine is rightfully Russian and denazification means annexation into the Russian federation

Can we finally put to bed the notion that the Minsk agreement Russia ignored anyway or any other unspecified compromise would have prevented the invasion?

He clearly rules out annexation, but everything else you say is correct

He doesn’t, ‘statehood won’t be liquidated’ means Ukraine as a constituent republic of the Russian Federation. TBF, it could also mean a Belarusian ‘union state’ agreement.

I think it is the latter.

Me as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Turns out that big explosion may not have actually been from today.
<tweet snip>

More evidence the video is days old:
https://twitter.com/aleksanderrr_/status/1498057583650869251?s=20&t=uC6bTA-4...

Gotta love geo-location gurus shooting down fake news! 

They are MVPs, aren't they?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

Sunday morning, 8:00 AM.

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

We've had like 60 pages in the last day, so I'd say Saturday or Sunday

These are both looking unlikely now. Posting in this thread slowed down a lot, not sure why.

BigSerg is muted and Vaccinated Russian Bear has vanished off the face of the forum. Plus some of the usual International General Discussion posters have been very quiet about this.

Hope the Vaxx Bear didn't get arrested at a peace rally or something.

That feels quite possible. Though we'll probably never know for certain.
Best of luck to him in that case.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Guys, I made a meme.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

161 pages, 30 of them by NOVA Green.

NOVA Green is a great poster. But I recommended this because I like cats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Guys, I made a meme.

THANK YOU!!!

No prob man!
Meme making is in my DNA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

can’t csto and China prop them up?

Would they bother?

Russia is useful to China mostly as a big ole oil field and a military that menaces and distracts the west. A ruined Russia means cheaper gas and North Korea proves you don’t need much of an economy to do the later.

Russia needs China more than China needs Russia. China has the luxury to be quasi-neutral in Russia's conflicts, while Russia, in most median scenarios, probably can't afford to be neutral in China's (though specifics would matter a lot).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

American intel has been absolutely elite so far in this war, I trust them to know exactly what's going on in Russia and know which buttons we need to press to end the war and (hopefully) get Putin fragged.

Our foreign policy and intelligence apparatus has had its best year in decades.

Tbf, it wasn't hard to top 2021, and it's not too common our opponents mess up like this.
But General MacArthur is exactly right, in that the intelligence community has handled this very well thus far. It looks as though the Russians aren't even trying to do things in secret, which might had made sense at the time, but could bite them in back badly now.

Moving ahead, Russia's hand looks potentially weakened enough that they might be forced into a compromise deal that entrenches the status quo in Eastern Europe, at best (for them). Finlandized Ukraine with NATO and EU membership on the table? It's not like Biden doesn't have experience working with the Russians, if the Obama administration is anything to go by.

Important to note though, this might be wishful thinking.