Texas 2022 megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

With brutal trends for Rs, a major university with a large student population, and with Austin not being too far away, those factors are pretty much enough for this county to already be considered "gone"

What happened in Hays could happen in Bastrop, given time. Though it's far from there...yet. The area around Austin is like the opposite of the RGV in how it's been trending.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just got back from the polling booths with two friends, both first time voters.

It was an hour to polls closed and there was pretty decent foot traffic, which I was glad to see.

What was the weather like? We had a pretty big storm over large parts of the state just hours earlier.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just got back from the polling booths with two friends, both first time voters.

It was an hour to polls closed and there was pretty decent foot traffic, which I was glad to see.

What was the weather like? We had a pretty big storm over large parts of the state just hours earlier.

Overcast but other than that, it was fine. It was storming pretty bad earlier but the lady told me they've been having plenty of people come in, even with the rain.

Ah. Nice to hear!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Abbot a UT graduate was cheared at an A&M game when he came on the field. Make of that what you will

What year was that?

I remember back when I lived in Tejas, there was a HUGE deal about Texas A&M joining the SEC, so some of the traditional football rivalry might well have dissipated by now.

Also Texas A&M has long been considered a relatively "conservative" University in Tejas over the years, especially with their whole military tradition thing.

Not sure if Abbot being cheered at a Texas A&M game is necessarily indicative of college and university student voters in Texas...

There's basically two "college student" voter blocks in Texas. The first is Christian Baptist and/or evangelical, the latter is...everyone else. The former is profoundly Republican and has contributed to A&M having a deservedly conservative reputation.

Student transplants are much likelier to not be plugged into this conservative southern Christian culture and so might vote differently.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My prediction of Abbott ending up in something like 5 or so points flopped huge here. The outcome is not  surprising, but the margin is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think what is most interesting is looking at the NYT swing maps, Abbotts biggest gains over Trump was almost exclusively in rural areas which is def not what I was expecting. This prolly has to do with Beto just being toxic for these areas.

In most of the cities though, he only barely outran Trump 2020 and in Travis County (Austin) he did outright worse.

Which begs the question of how much "hell yeah I'd take your AR-15s" hurt him electorally.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think what is most interesting is looking at the NYT swing maps, Abbotts biggest gains over Trump was almost exclusively in rural areas which is def not what I was expecting. This prolly has to do with Beto just being toxic for these areas.

In most of the cities though, he only barely outran Trump 2020 and in Travis County (Austin) he did outright worse.

Which begs the question of how much "hell yeah I'd take your AR-15s" hurt him electorally.

Really just the rurals, but maybe a small bit in some suburbs too. Collin seemed to have a decent rightward shift.

I'm not entirely sure what caused the suburban shift. Perhaps Republican messaging about inflation cut through there.