PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, you can definitely tell that the campaign apparatus for Mastriano is severely lacking in numerous departments. Not surprising though. Their campaign imagery also looks like something from the 90s, but that's also a very GOP thing

What would it take for Mastriano to win in spite of said deficiencies?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oz is clearly trying to right the ship (and doing a not-horrible job) whereas Mastriano's aides reportedly isolate him from any dissenting opinions - not hard to see why/how Oz performs a few points ahead of him, especially with Senate control on the line.

I agree with this — opinions of Mastriano are considerably more hardened, with little room for growth beyond the base (which he, unlike Oz, has mostly already consolidated). I was obviously critical of Oz as a candidate (while noting that there was a relatively easy fix to his biggest problems), but credit where credit is due — forcing Fetterman into a corner with the "Either he’s hiding how unfit he is for the office or or he’s afraid to reveal where he stands on the issues" move was pretty smart. I’m not a swing voter, but I’ve warmed up to him over the last few weeks, and I like to think of myself as somewhat adept at the entire "thinking/feeling like a swing voter" thing. I honestly never had that feeling with Vance.

I don’t necessarily expect this to happen, but Oz running the best Republican comeback campaign of any GOP candidate in the home stretch of this cycle would, by far, be the most amusing plot twist of this election season. FWIW (and I’m sure you agree), I do think there is a certain type of candidate who performs well only under pressure and when trailing in the polls, and this might apply to Oz as well. It was arguably true in Rick Scott's case as well, who came from behind in 2014/2018 but nearly blew a sizable lead in 2010. I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on this, but you could even argue that it’s easier to campaign when you have to climb out of a hole than when you’re trying to maintain a lead, but I’m sure that depends on the type of person you’re dealing with.

For all of his flaws, no one can say Oz isn’t a very intelligent man. Despite being out of touch, he’ll have some wherewithal that most of the GOP candidates might not have. Besides being an out of touch carpetbagger, it’s harder to hit Oz on many of the issues. Despite veering right in the primary, Oz doesn’t have the image of an crazy extremist nor someone that would totally inept (like Walker).

I think Oz finally caught on that he was heading for an embarrassing defeat and decided to actually try to campaign. If he’s actually putting effort in, he should be decent.

That's why I think the most effective attack on Oz is still just being incredibly out of touch with PA. You're right, the 'extremist' angle doesn't really mesh because while Oz is a fraud, he seems more willing to do whatever rather than stake out a purposeful extremist agenda. Let alone that, but he's also a TV physician, so it's harder to craft that image.

However, all of that being said, that's why I think the "Oz is a carpetbagger who knows nothing about real Pennsylvanians and is a quack TV doctor" is the best hit you have, and it's the most effective. The whole schtick with Oz is that he is some rich guy who flew in from Jersey who has little to no ties to actual Pennsylvania or the people in the state, and thinks he can buy a senate seat.

I think it was in the article about Fetterman's rally on Sunday where they interviewed a Trump 2016/2020 voter who was voting for Fetterman, and he said essentially the same thing - Oz just doesn't know what it's like for real people in this state, and he can't connect to them.

I think Oz has also changed his positions so many times throughout the years that the whole "Which Oz can you actually trust?" angle is also effective. One day he says abortion is murder, another day (years ago) he's pro-choice, and now he's for a total abortion ban but in certain cases. He's the definition of a terrible flip-flopper.

Some of this has many shades of "Romney 2012" in it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1568955106468528130?t=KxdLfc7_TXjHESO8IH-...

Am I watching a Youtube compilation or a political ad?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I also think a lot of that Commonwealth Leaders Fund money was spent over the summer.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1572993614573076480

Holy sh**t. I mean I guess it's an improvement from a couple months ago when Mastriano was operating a statewide campaign on like $300,000 but still.

Well and the funny thing is, none of those CLF ads are pro-Mastriano. From what I've seen, the 1st one was just anti-Biden/anti-Shapiro and the 2nd one was ... pro-DelRosso/pro-"The republican ticket" lol

I've seen enough. This race is Likely R.
Mastriano is so popular Republican ads won't even mention his name! Doing so would detract from other candidates!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can only imagine if Republicans had nominated Reschenthaler and Bartos. They would be in a much better position. Even McCormick and Barletta would have a better chance of winning than Oz and Mastriano at this point.

Wasn't it mentioned earlier that Bartos's wife is fundraising for Shapiro?

Wasn't Bartos a NeverTrumper who ran for the Senate primary?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

He has some very serious presidential potential.

He's certainly a far more talented and charismatic politician than DeSantis.

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1589030972036874241?s=20&t=12Oz8i_cH...

Someone has studied Obama.

And this kind of charisma stands out particularly when its juxtaposed against the likes of...Mastriano.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Shapiro is absolutely a future Presidential candidate. People in the handshake line after the rally yesterday were telling him "Don't stop at Governor." He clearly has studied Obama and I would expect him to run in 2028.

I saw one clip of a speech from him on YouTube - and it was genuinely very, very good: better than most political speeches I hear nowadays. He wins this - which he will - he could be presidential material later down the road. Governing a large, purple state - comfortably defeating (as I expect he will) a far-rightist to do so - is certainly an impressive resume to have.


I also just heard this from Jonathan Karl - sorry if someone's already posted it, but otherwise I definitely think it's worth sharing: this is going to be the first time since before the GOP's foundation that the Democrats win three gubernatorial races back-to-back in the Keystone State. What will really be the capper is if all three are decided by solid margins, as well - Wolf won by 9.8% in 2014 and 17.1% in 2018; if Shapiro can win by, say, 7 points or more, I'd call that 'solid' (he might, he might not - I know he's winning but a 7 point or greater win is not guaranteed).

Shapiro's a rare get. I would not be surprised if he goes somewhere.