PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oz is clearly trying to right the ship (and doing a not-horrible job) whereas Mastriano's aides reportedly isolate him from any dissenting opinions - not hard to see why/how Oz performs a few points ahead of him, especially with Senate control on the line.

I agree with this — opinions of Mastriano are considerably more hardened, with little room for growth beyond the base (which he, unlike Oz, has mostly already consolidated). I was obviously critical of Oz as a candidate (while noting that there was a relatively easy fix to his biggest problems), but credit where credit is due — forcing Fetterman into a corner with the "Either he’s hiding how unfit he is for the office or or he’s afraid to reveal where he stands on the issues" move was pretty smart. I’m not a swing voter, but I’ve warmed up to him over the last few weeks, and I like to think of myself as somewhat adept at the entire "thinking/feeling like a swing voter" thing. I honestly never had that feeling with Vance.

I don’t necessarily expect this to happen, but Oz running the best Republican comeback campaign of any GOP candidate in the home stretch of this cycle would, by far, be the most amusing plot twist of this election season. FWIW (and I’m sure you agree), I do think there is a certain type of candidate who performs well only under pressure and when trailing in the polls, and this might apply to Oz as well. It was arguably true in Rick Scott's case as well, who came from behind in 2014/2018 but nearly blew a sizable lead in 2010. I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on this, but you could even argue that it’s easier to campaign when you have to climb out of a hole than when you’re trying to maintain a lead, but I’m sure that depends on the type of person you’re dealing with.

For all of his flaws, no one can say Oz isn’t a very intelligent man. Despite being out of touch, he’ll have some wherewithal that most of the GOP candidates might not have. Besides being an out of touch carpetbagger, it’s harder to hit Oz on many of the issues. Despite veering right in the primary, Oz doesn’t have the image of an crazy extremist nor someone that would totally inept (like Walker).

I think Oz finally caught on that he was heading for an embarrassing defeat and decided to actually try to campaign. If he’s actually putting effort in, he should be decent.

That's why I think the most effective attack on Oz is still just being incredibly out of touch with PA. You're right, the 'extremist' angle doesn't really mesh because while Oz is a fraud, he seems more willing to do whatever rather than stake out a purposeful extremist agenda. Let alone that, but he's also a TV physician, so it's harder to craft that image.

However, all of that being said, that's why I think the "Oz is a carpetbagger who knows nothing about real Pennsylvanians and is a quack TV doctor" is the best hit you have, and it's the most effective. The whole schtick with Oz is that he is some rich guy who flew in from Jersey who has little to no ties to actual Pennsylvania or the people in the state, and thinks he can buy a senate seat.

I think it was in the article about Fetterman's rally on Sunday where they interviewed a Trump 2016/2020 voter who was voting for Fetterman, and he said essentially the same thing - Oz just doesn't know what it's like for real people in this state, and he can't connect to them.

I think Oz has also changed his positions so many times throughout the years that the whole "Which Oz can you actually trust?" angle is also effective. One day he says abortion is murder, another day (years ago) he's pro-choice, and now he's for a total abortion ban but in certain cases. He's the definition of a terrible flip-flopper.

Some of this has many shades of "Romney 2012" in it.

[Comrade Funk]

The "Oz comeback"? How deluded are you people?

[Pollster]

Oz is clearly trying to right the ship (and doing a not-horrible job) whereas Mastriano's aides reportedly isolate him from any dissenting opinions - not hard to see why/how Oz performs a few points ahead of him, especially with Senate control on the line.

I agree with this — opinions of Mastriano are considerably more hardened, with little room for growth beyond the base (which he, unlike Oz, has mostly already consolidated). I was obviously critical of Oz as a candidate (while noting that there was a relatively easy fix to his biggest problems), but credit where credit is due — forcing Fetterman into a corner with the "Either he’s hiding how unfit he is for the office or or he’s afraid to reveal where he stands on the issues" move was pretty smart. I’m not a swing voter, but I’ve warmed up to him over the last few weeks, and I like to think of myself as somewhat adept at the entire "thinking/feeling like a swing voter" thing. I honestly never had that feeling with Vance.

I don’t necessarily expect this to happen, but Oz running the best Republican comeback campaign of any GOP candidate in the home stretch of this cycle would, by far, be the most amusing plot twist of this election season. FWIW (and I’m sure you agree), I do think there is a certain type of candidate who performs well only under pressure and when trailing in the polls, and this might apply to Oz as well. It was arguably true in Rick Scott's case as well, who came from behind in 2014/2018 but nearly blew a sizable lead in 2010. I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on this, but you could even argue that it’s easier to campaign when you have to climb out of a hole than when you’re trying to maintain a lead, but I’m sure that depends on the type of person you’re dealing with.

I don't think we should be getting carried away here - Oz remains a horrendous candidate with significant vulnerabilities that are both specific to him and difficult to overcome/easy to exploit, making this a far more difficult race for Republicans than it should be in this climate (which is still good for them despite significant Democratic improvement).

I also caution you not to read too much into Oz's strategy - I don't think what you see as forcing Fetterman into a corner (even if that's how it may have panned out in the eyes of some audiences) was actually that - it feels more like his throwing everything possible at the wall. It may wind up being enough to get some of the Republican base skeptical of him to come home, and your reaction here (as a self-described non-swing voter ) may be a sign of that. And that is something that will give him a bump in the polls since the copious undecideds are obviously right-leaners. But there's no reason to believe yet that it's going to move the needle with the voters who would make this the race he needs it to be. Candidates tend to show their quality early on, and it's incredibly rare for candidates to improve - I've seen candidates improve over the course of multiple cycles (Ossoff is a great example of this) but I can't recall a single time it's ever happened over the course of one cycle. Also important to draw a distinction here between candidates whose problems originate because of them personally vs. those who suffer because of structural and systematic issues with their campaign operations and/or the national party and environment. For Oz, it strongly seems to be the former.

You make a good observation about candidates who run well from behind but incumbency is often a major driver of this. Incumbency clearly has a lot of benefits in electoral politics but also does come with some significant limitations (both in terms of messaging and logistics) that make it incredibly hard for incumbents to come up from behind. I don't remember the exact number unfortunately, but a colleague of mine recently ran the stats and found that a massive majority (I believe somewhere in the 70-80% range) of our incumbent/incumbent-supporting clients over the past decade who started the race down in our first poll of the cycle went on to lose. In an open seat like this one, I'm not sure how it plays out for either Oz or Fetterman.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1568955106468528130?t=KxdLfc7_TXjHESO8IH-...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't know if it's actually the worst campaign ad ever considering the competition....but it seems like it's just a compilation of the sort of campaigning stock footage that real political ads are cut from with the soundtrack literally being YouTube's generic copyright background track.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1568955106468528130?t=KxdLfc7_TXjHESO8IH-...

Am I watching a Youtube compilation or a political ad?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mossjon7/status/1569696316581634050

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1568955106468528130?t=KxdLfc7_TXjHESO8IH-...

Am I watching a Youtube compilation or a political ad?

I've seen worse, dumber, and more insulting ads but never have I seen one as pointless as this. Maybe it's a smart move though: the less voters know about what Mastriano actually thinks, the less likely it is that they reject him unless they're pure Trump cultists. instead it's just Mastriano interacting with voters in safe R counties! Who can have a problem with that? Even if the music blares over him speaking and a lion roars at the end for no reason.

[Coldstream]

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1568955106468528130?t=KxdLfc7_TXjHESO8IH-...

Am I watching a Youtube compilation or a political ad?

I've seen worse, dumber, and more insulting ads but never have I seen one as pointless as this. Maybe it's a smart move though: the less voters know about what Mastriano actually thinks, the less likely it is that they reject him unless they're pure Trump cultists. instead it's just Mastriano interacting with voters in safe R counties! Who can have a problem with that? Even if the music blares over him speaking and a lion roars at the end for no reason.

Agreed, this reaches unheralded, almost comical, levels of vacuity. Like Paul Rudd’s character in Parks and Rec.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1568955106468528130?t=KxdLfc7_TXjHESO8IH-...

I was waiting for the ad to start, all I got was a bunch of stock footages

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1568955106468528130?t=KxdLfc7_TXjHESO8IH-...

I was waiting for the ad to start, all I got was a bunch of stock footages

I literally laughed out loud when the guy goes 'recently people are asking what Republicans stand for... we know what we stand for!' and then the ad goes on to play elevator music with not a single policy, position or even statement. Truly comical stuff.

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1568955106468528130?t=KxdLfc7_TXjHESO8IH-...

I was waiting for the ad to start, all I got was a bunch of stock footages

I literally laughed out loud when the guy goes 'recently people are asking what Republicans stand for... we know what we stand for!' and then the ad goes on to play elevator music with not a single policy, position or even statement. Truly comical stuff.

This stock footage ‘ad’ seems more like something a high school broadcasting class would make and not an actual campaign. Truly hilarious.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1570042787063799808

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1570042787063799808

Not surprising. I don't think he's made any effort to appeal to anyone who isn't already a hardcore supporter of his.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1570042787063799808

Not surprising. I don't think he's made any effort to appeal to anyone who isn't already a hardcore supporter of his.

That and the fact that he has made no effort to get his message out to them either way. He only goes on right wing radio/TV stations and has no money, so even if he had some moderating message, there would be no way for him to actually get it to real swing voters either

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1570042787063799808

bu- but- Politician told me Mastriano's focus on bread-and-ammo issues would win the swing voters because milk costs 10% more at the local Wegners!

[NewYorkExpress]

Take a look at Shapiro's new ad. It's brutal. About the only thing it doesn't do is explicitly call Mastriano a Nazi.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1570760664318099461

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1570760664318099461

PAGOP candidates and being registered to vote in New Jersey--name a better duo.

[prag_prog]

The more I learn about Mastriano, the more I am afraid of the possibility of him becoming governor. Thank god Dems have a good candidate for this race

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1570760664318099461

PAGOP candidates and being registered to vote in New Jersey--name a better duo.

New Jersey should keep their clowns.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Considering how much being from New Jersey has plagued Oz's campaign, this might be the death-knell for Mastriano's on top of everything else objectionable about him. Sure, it probably won't shift the opinions of the Trump cultists, but it adds to the many things that might be a major turn-off for Independents and undecideds.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1570760664318099461

PAGOP candidates and being registered to vote in New Jersey--name a better duo.

New Jersey should keep their clowns.

God, no! We don't want him! Give him to Florida.

[NewYorkExpress]

Mastriano literally attacked Shapiro for attending a Hebrew Academy for High School, and is promptly getting roasted by Jake Tapper.

CNN host Jake Tapper didn’t take kindly to Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano attacking his high school.

On Thursday’s The Lead, Tapper — who was raised in Queen Village and Merion — rebuked Mastriano for comments he made about Bryn Mawr’s Jack M. Barrack Hebrew Academy during a campaign speech livestreamed on Facebook Wednesday.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro is also a graduate of the Jewish school, which Mastriano claimed was “one of the most privileged schools in the nation.”

“Sending his four kids to the same privileged, exclusive elite school. … We talk about him having disdain for people like us,” Mastriano said of Shapiro.



“I happen to know a little bit about the ‘privileged school’ Mr. Mastriano is attacking, because I went there, too,” Tapper said on Thursday’s show.



Tapper is a 1987 graduate of Jack M. Barrack Hebrew Academy, which was formerly called the Akiba Hebrew Academy. He was four years ahead of Shapiro, who graduated in 1991, and painted the school as an inclusive institution welcoming families of varying backgrounds and financial status.

According to the school’s website, tuition for the 2022-23 school year for grades 10 through 12 runs $37,600. Tapper said more than 60% of the student body gets some form of tuition assistance, a number confirmed by a school spokesperson.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TRAFALGAR isn't considering the big jump in early voting D's are gonna get or VBM totals just like last time they missed MI because of the VBM, we are gonna win the 303 map it's the wave insurance states that are questioning

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mastriano is a literal white supremacist and anti-Semite.