Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why hasn’t Powhatan county VA become more blue? It’s a county right outside Richmond that is seeing large population growth

Youngkin got nearly 80% there and it’s getting REDDER

Why?

I guess its subdivisions are filling up with right-leaning voters for some reason. That's the only way to explain it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am vindicated!

Loudoun County is not swing county!

If there was any time in the modern era it would flip GOP this was it! And it didn't!

Loudoun was basically unwinnable for the GOP due to the shifts in its demographics, unless for some reason VA Ds nominated someone in the mould of, say, Lee Carter.
Loudoun itself was not really competitive this election. Not that Youngkin needed it to be such.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This indicates, Trumpism without [the toxicity of] Trump is real thing. If so, Dems should be panicking.

Ds would be well served to not just assume that the Trump political style is a blanket negative because it was a liability to some degree for Donald Trump in 2020.
You can still be out-campaigned if you talk about Trump.
Trump lost in 2020 in part because he expected Sanders to be nominated and didn't change the script when Biden got the nod instead.
T-Mac lost in 2021 in part because he expected Amanda Chase or someone similar to be nominated and didn't change the script when Youngkin got the nod instead.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Skip

I think the one thing we can learn from this is that Democrats are doomed in 2022 with that level of WWC support

Yeah, this is just really grim for Dems.  There's no way to spin this and it wasn't at all candidate-specific.  They can get VA back by matching or exceeding Biden with the college+ vote, but how they can possibly counter reverse-NYC style rural voting in the presidential swing states, let alone the senate?  That's the ballgame federally and we get the Republican New Deal in either 2025 or 29.

One has to agree that, *should* rural support sink in 2022 to levels we saw here (not at all saying it's at all guaranteed or even predictable) it's bad news for Ds. In Virginia, had McAuliffe held Biden numbers in NoVa and got the same numbers elsewhere, he would have won - all the statewide Dems would have. But most of the country is not Virginia, even if most GOP candidates are not going to be on the level of Youngkin (whose discipline and cunning really made this result possible in the first place).

Ds cannot neglect the rural vote,  even if it's getting less important as time goes by. Moreover, most suburbs aren't NoVa either. NoVa is unusually Democratic by suburban standards, with very strong Dem fundamentals. If Youngkin is able to get what he needs in that sort of area by laser-focusing on the nebulous topic of "education", then that's proof that one cannot automatically assume suburbs are going to be safe in general.

Neglect any place and your opponent can get what they want there unchallenged. Easy solutions are not common in politics and while it's not all smooth sailing for Rs, far from it, Ds cannot get complacent.

Dems would be well served by focusing on broad appeal and contesting all demographics. Get votes from whereever you can. A vote is a vote.
The same is true for Rs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "respectability politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

Interesting analysis.
You raise a lot of good points, I gave you a recommend.
Also I'd be surprised if Youngkin didn't win first-time voters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1457078851658412032

Thanks Populism Updates, I cannot unsee Glenn Youngkin and Terry McAuliffe with a beard.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

NJ

You mean the first time a D governor was re-elected in 44 years, where the election's closeness was more due to typical NJ dynamics that saw the GOP do better than presidential-level baseline would suggest, and where iirc even one Atlas poster said they couldn't convince their family to vote?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

NJ

You mean the first time a D governor was re-elected in 44 years, where the election's closeness was more due to typical NJ dynamics that saw the GOP do better than presidential-level baseline would suggest, and where iirc even one Atlas poster said they couldn't convince their family to vote?

Dems holding on to Phil Murphy severely underperforming polls (With the political polarization this is horrible and not comparable to 2012 or 2009) as a cope=Rs holding on to Karen Handel’s narrow win underperforming all previous margins in GA-06 as a cope.

Your comparisons are, in all due respect, atrocious. Comparing gubernatorial, presidential, and House special elections, all with different turnout dynamics in significantly different states, makes no sense if done in this way. "Polarization" is not grounds to make any comparison you like and it automatically makes sense. "Cope" is not grounds to automatically dismiss any argument that goes against your own.
You have to compare like with like.
Even 2017>2021 comparisons for NJ-GOV are somewhat deceptive since in 2017 Ds had it very easy with it being both open (retirements still make seats flipping easier) and with the background of a very unpopular R governor overshadowing the Guadagno campaign. Some reversion to the mean was likely inevitable, even if Murphy threw a lot of votes away with gaffes.
I would not say they are uniquely bad though. Punditry has been quite low quality about these elections in general, both on forum, and off of it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There’s an interesting article on POLITICO which says that a lot of McAuliffe’s attacks actually helped ramp up turnout in the western part of the state.

It is often forgotten but Mark Warner very nearly lost in 2014 and I believe that he only managed to hold onto due to his historic links and over performance in the western edge.

Yes, I think the abortion issue had a lot to do with this (voters who cited it as their most important issue broke for Youngkin 60-40). In spite of NSV's and others' assertions to the contrary, McAuliffe's pro-choice-with-zero-exceptions position was not perceived as less extreme than Youngkin's standard pro-life-with-the-usual-exceptions position, and the Youngkin campaign had a few really good ads up about the whole issue before the whole school/CRT thing broke.

McAuliffe's extremist abortion position almost certainly further galvanized the evangelical / rural, small-town GOP base and was a big reason why Youngkin outperformed even Trump in most of these counties.

Still more evidence that preaching to the choir cost McAuliffe dearly this election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.civisanalytics.com/blog/key-takeaways-from-the-2021-virginia-election/ (source)

This table shows which district-level factors were most associated with shifts since 2019. Higher positive values indicate variables where support for Democrats grew since 2019, and negative values indicate variables where support for Democrats declined since 2019.

% Asian = +0.34, % Hispanic = +0.33, % Suburban = +0.28, % nonwhite suburban = + 0.26, % white suburban = +0.24, % under 35 = -0.10, % black = -0.12, % white = -0.12, % nonwhite urban = -0.26, % Native American = -0.26

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/rsgore/status/1455980117558239236

Black voters swinging R by more than Latino or Asian voters in a post-Trump election is what I would’ve expected back in 2017 or 2018.

Does this suggest that suburban voters were actually less likely to switch than urban ones or rural ones? Or am I reading this incorrectly?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.civisanalytics.com/blog/key-takeaways-from-the-2021-virginia-election/ (source)

This table shows which district-level factors were most associated with shifts since 2019. Higher positive values indicate variables where support for Democrats grew since 2019, and negative values indicate variables where support for Democrats declined since 2019.

% Asian = +0.34, % Hispanic = +0.33, % Suburban = +0.28, % nonwhite suburban = + 0.26, % white suburban = +0.24, % under 35 = -0.10, % black = -0.12, % white = -0.12, % nonwhite urban = -0.26, % Native American = -0.26

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/rsgore/status/1455980117558239236

Black voters swinging R by more than Latino or Asian voters in a post-Trump election is what I would’ve expected back in 2017 or 2018.

Not quite sure the source on this.... is it a focus group thing or

As I have stated before suspect it would be really difficult to use precinct results for VA-GOV '21 with all of the Centralized Precincts and EV.....

Hopefully the law gets changed so that they require all votes to be assigned to precincts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is quite remarkable that literally every county and county-equivalent in the state swing in Youngkin's favor.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BREAKING NEWS: INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT ALEX ASKEW HAS JUST CONCEDED THE VIRGINIA-85 HOUSE RACE TO REPUBLICAN KAREN GREENHALGH. GREENHALGH WAS CERTIFIED THE WINNER OF THIS RACE BY 115 VOTES. THIS MEANS THAT THE REPUBLICANS TAKE TAKEN OVER THE VIRGINIA HOUSE OF DELEGATES WITH AT LEAST 51 SEATS. ONE MORE RACE HAS YET TO BE FULLY DECIDED. VIRGINIA-91 WILL GO THROUGH A RECOUNT OF IT'S OWN NEXT WEEK. REPUBLICAN A.C CORDOZA LED INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT MARTHA MUGLER BY 94 VOTES ON THE INITIAL COUNT. IF THE RECOUND WINDS UP SIMILAR TO TODAY'S RECOUNT, CORDOZA SHOULD WIN BY AROUND 80-85 VOTES.

Good thing for the GOP they lack a majority in the State Senate...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/1493231639178231815
Hero!

Good

Credit where credit is due.