Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This result is certainly embarrassing for the Democrats, and particularly for Terry McAuliffe. I personally still believed that McAuliffe would pull it out, but it's clear that Youngkin had momentum. And McAuliffe ran a terrible campaign. If Democrats can't win in Virginia, then how are they going to hold the Upper Midwest next year? Or how will they do in states like Arizona, North Carolina, Texas, and Florida? I'm doubtful. 

But Georgia is titanium D now. Everyone on Atlas said so.

Georgia is not Virginia, and Virginia is not Georgia. Georgia is bizarro Mississippi.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Regardless of what the margin ends up being, the fact that Republicans were able to improve upon the GOP baseline here by running against teaching Toni Morrison books is really all that any of us needs to know.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Alright fellas. Gonna quit it for tonight and get some sweet sweet shut eye. It's been a fun evening staring at numbers changing but either way congrats to Youngkin on becoming Governor of Virginia and good night!

Good night!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455765165073383426

GOP sweep

welp, GOP gov, GOP lt gov, GOP ag, GOP house, but D senate? It's 2011 all over again.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

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We did it folks!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would caution against linking this result to national-level politics except in very general broad strokes. It was a state-level election driven by state-level issues. Whatever Biden did, it would not have changed McAuliffe's D-grade campaign (not rating it worse than that because he did do some things right even if he made many mistakes), nor Youngkin being a A++ candidate who figured out the math as to how to get to 50%+1 in Virginia. In general, Ds who ran better campaigns still lost, which tells us that it's not really T-Mac's problem, it's a broader VA Dem problem, something the party needs to work on. They lost a freaking 60% black house seat for god's sake. These defeats in fact might well be a blessing in disguise by helping young talent rise to fore in 2025 and later.

I don't think this race has that many things to say about much of anything outside of Virginia, at least in terms of specifics. This tells us not much about 2022, nor 2024, except that suburbs aren't safe D (or R) regardless of the candidates and campaigns. Don't assume that 2022 is a battle decided by turning out your base with means of angry gestures. Work on the basis that you are chasing the median voter. Pander to them shamelessly. That's what Youngkin did - talking endlessly about "education".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The next step for some in the election mafia will be to downplay the significance of this race as McAuliffe was a "bad candidate" (which, he was) that uniquely underperformed. So... how does that explain the New Jersey results, or the other statewide races that look nearly identical (with an incumbent Dem AG likely losing)? Or the competitive HoD?

New Jersey seems to have been influenced by a gaffe Phil Murphy made about taxes late in the campaign. It's a gaffe that must have hurt, especially in one of the most taxed states in the country.
But that doesn't explain it all or even necessarily most of it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It'll be interesting to see the final margins for the House special elections too and the state legislative elections. It does look like the environment has turned and is now pointing to a Republican wave. Democrats have only this Congress to do as much good as they can, the trifecta is highly unlikely to be repeated for many years.

Imo it would be a mistake to necessarily operate on basis of 2022 being a GOP wave going forward. A sufficiently vigorous D campaign with good candidates on the new House maps could hold the House, and a strong D campaign can even net gains in the Senate. Biden has the bully pulpit. If the economy is in good shape come 2022 we have a decent chance of doing very well.
But we have to be ruthless in undercutting GOP messaging for this to make this more realistic, and accept that operating in myopia-land is the recipe for further defeats, which in turn is the way we lose the ability to deliver for our constituencies. Cut the loose ends, throw out the deadweight. Chase the median voter and strike a balance between nullifying R attack lines and focusing on redrawing the battlefield altogether. If some angry people on Twitter throw a fit, who cares? They aren't the swing electorate, their opinion literally does not matter. Rachel Bitofer-tier nonsense doesn't belong in D messaging.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It'll be interesting to see the final margins for the House special elections too and the state legislative elections. It does look like the environment has turned and is now pointing to a Republican wave. Democrats have only this Congress to do as much good as they can, the trifecta is highly unlikely to be repeated for many years.

Imo it would be a mistake to necessarily operate on basis of 2022 being a GOP wave going forward. A sufficiently vigorous D campaign with good candidates on the new House maps could hold the House, and a strong D campaign can even net gains in the Senate. Biden has the bully pulpit. If the economy is in good shape come 2022 we have a decent chance of doing very well.
But we have to be ruthless in undercutting GOP messaging for this to make this more realistic, and accept that operating in myopia-land is the recipe for further defeats, which in turn is the way we lose the ability to deliver for our constituencies. Cut the loose ends, throw out the deadweight. Chase the median voter and strike a balance between nullifying R attack lines and focusing on redrawing the battlefield altogether. If some angry people on Twitter throw a fit, who cares? They aren't the swing electorate, their opinion literally does not matter. Rachel Bitofer-tier nonsense doesn't belong in D messaging.

In denial you are. 2022 will be like 2014 et 2010. With good or bad candidates.

I'll forgive you for what is a clear case of an entitled attitude (in the sense of 'my party will win even if it is out-messaged, out-candidated, and out-strategized'). After all, if Rs behave like that,  the Democrats only do better. So no complaint about that.
Reality is that elections are typically decided by the median voter. And it is the job of political parties to pursue them, to woo them, to pander to them.
Youngkin's win underlined this. I ask - please no more Bitofer-tier stupidity going forward.
If Ds are better than Rs at what Youngkin did here, they just are likelier to win in 2022. Only the following months will tell us that of course.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

To defend the campaign staff I would love to watch Atlas posters try and run a campaign. Would be hilarious where it ended up.

Now I just imagine
“Twitchchat runs a campaign!”

Streamer: Ok chat, we were behind by 20 points because of stances we took on diversity training, but the last few polls had us behind by 10 and we only lost by 5 points
Chat: POGGERS

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Do NY and MA determine who gets elected in LA and WV? Not that I'm aware of. The truth is, politicians like John Breaux and Joe Manchin have made a calculated decision. Informed by years of experience operating in their native political environments. The same decision conservative Democrats representing downscale whites always make: sellout to affluent interests.

Why is that? Well, one explanation might be that Democrats who win elections in very challenging territory are politically inept. But that seems highly counterintuitive. The more plausible explanation is simply that the voters of LA, WV, KY, AL, etc., aren't pining for a socially conservative version of Bernie Sanders. Economic status exerts such a negligible influence over their electoral behavior that Joe Manchin would rather kill family medical leave than risk antagonizing Corporate America. And it's probably a wise decision.
  

You do a good job of breaking down the thought process they likely use, imo. Here's a recommend.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/YoungKimCA/status/1456021673581453312?s=20

Atlas memes incoming in 5...4...3...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How has this thread grown more insufferable after the election?

I dunno. Atlas gonna Atlas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The 3 biggest races of November 2nd 2021 were Virginia, New Jersey and New York City.
The democrats won 2 of them.
The democrats don't need to cry.

Very very bad take

It's better than arguing that this is certifiable proof that there will be an R wave in 2022.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The 3 biggest races of November 2nd 2021 were Virginia, New Jersey and New York City.
The democrats won 2 of them.
The democrats don't need to cry.

Very very bad take

It's better than arguing that this is certifiable proof that there will be an R wave in 2022.

D +10% to R +2% and D+16% to D+ under 5% is a very strong indicator that Democrats would lose Congress if the election were held now, and backs up the stuff we already know that tells us these bare majorities are not going to hold.

People are reading too much into this election. An R wave is not necessarily going to happen, regardless of what polls say even now. "If polls now" and "If the election happens now" mean little to nothing in the real world because that is far from when elections are actually happen and a year is a very long time in politics. I'll be looking at 2022 polls to decide that, and especially later year ones. (Actually, if we are going to be making 2009-2010 parallels: I'll point out Ds led in the polls for all but previous six months before Election Day that year. And we know how that ended)

No, this does not necessarily tell us much about 2022 other than we can't assume the suburbs are safe for either party and that Rs might well have a turnout advantage. As usual, whichever side does better in tactics, gets better candidates, and has better messaging and strategy is probably going to win. And thinking we know for sure which side that will be is a fool's errand.

It remains fact that the D coalition is more higher-turnout than it was in 2010 (because in most cases it is the same voters, only they turn out more), which is good news for Democrats, but far from enough to ensure we hold our majorities next year.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1 year to course correct.

1 year.

Otherwise, well, I know some of y'all are too young to really remember 2010. Let me just say it is PAIN.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455709997887787009?s=20

It’s over.

While Democrats certainly have an uphill battle next year, I think the fact that some pundits are acting like things will be the exact same in 12 months is a bit misguided.

The insurrection was only 10 months ago. Look at how much has changed. Biden's approvals were like +10 in June, just 5 months ago. We honestly don't know what Nov 2022 will look like

Exactly, we don't know what Nov 2022 will look like.
A week is a lifetime in politics, evenmoreso a year.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yoú have to be a serious D hack to spin this as "this doesn’t tell us anything about 2022." If Republicans lost a high-profile, high-turnout, nationalized gubernatorial campaign in Iowa (as well as all of their statewide offices, one of which was held by an incumbent) and were only three points away from an embarrassment in Tennessee, no one would pretend that this somehow wouldn’t foreshadow a disastrous environment for them in next year's midterm elections. Obviously federal races aren’t gubernatorial races, but there was a very clear pattern in those elections, and it’s very, very bad for Democrats across the board. You can maybe explain away the PA races (but even that would require letting the "D base turns out at a far higher rate than the GOP base, especially without Trump on the ballot" theory go), but if you had told anyone in January 2021 that Northern Virginia and New Jersey of all places would have such sizable swings to the Republicans, you would have been laughed off the forum and mocked relentlessly.

I'd be saying the same things I'd be saying now, if T-Mac won.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If people were saying that for sure there would be a good D year in 2022 because T-Mac won, I'd be disagreeing with them, and I'd be labelled an R hack probably.
If people are saying that for sure there would be a good R year in 2022 because Youngkin won, I'd be disagreeing with them as well, and be labelled a D hack as a result.
Whatever. You just show how quick Atlas is to over-extrapolate from an incomplete data set.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yoú have to be a serious D hack to spin this as "this doesn’t tell us anything about 2022." If Republicans lost a high-profile, high-turnout, nationalized gubernatorial campaign in Iowa (as well as all of their statewide offices, one of which was held by an incumbent) and were only three points away from an embarrassment in Tennessee, no one would pretend that this somehow wouldn’t foreshadow a disastrous environment for them in next year's midterm elections. Obviously federal races aren’t gubernatorial races, but there was a very clear pattern in those elections, and it’s very, very bad for Democrats across the board. You can maybe explain away the PA races (but even that would require letting the "D base turns out at a far higher rate than the GOP base, especially without Trump on the ballot" theory go), but if you had told anyone in January 2021 that Northern Virginia and New Jersey of all places would have such sizable swings to the Republicans, you would have been laughed off the forum and mocked relentlessly.

Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil was one of the only users who defended NSV, you know....

You'll find that I'm forgiving to a lot of people. Defending unpopular forumites from what I consider unfair attacks is a secondary hobby for me on this forum. But go off...
That is all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

Loudoun was a different place back then.
The fact Youngkin lost Loudoun by 10 and Romney lost it by 4 despite the former being a very strong candidate and the latter being a weaker one (though tbf, the best Rs could come up with in 2012) speaks volumes about how much the county has changed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1456304539779440643?cxt=HHwWhoC9pevQ6...
PLEASE.

Must say this would be a big step forward for the Commonwealth of Virginia on a small issue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Should Northam call an emergency session to strip powers from the Governor and AG like Republicans did in Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin?

Hell no.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Impeaching Youngkin would be a horrific look for the state party (leaving aside the legion of moral issues that come along with it). And it wouldn't do anything unless they impeached Sears as well. Such a thing would be such a move for the jugular.
Youngkin won in a democratic election, let him become the democratically-elected, duly-taking-office Governor.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does impeachment by itself even do anything?

If done during his time in office? Yes, it would be technically legal, and it would ensure he spends one or two days as Governor. I don't think a retroactive impeachment is allowed in Virginia.
But it'd likely harm Ds electorally far more than Youngkin himself did.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does impeachment by itself even do anything?

If done during his time in office? Yes, it would be technically legal, and it would ensure he spends one or two days as Governor. I don't think a retroactive impeachment is allowed in Virginia.
But it'd likely harm Ds electorally far more than Youngkin himself did.

No I just mean impeachment by itself, conviction requires 2/3 I assume?

Atleast in NC the impeachment means guilty till proven "innocent"

Article IV. Legislature
Section 17. Impeachment
"The Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, judges, members of the State Corporation Commission, and all officers appointed by the Governor or elected by the General Assembly, offending against the Commonwealth by malfeasance in office, corruption, neglect of duty, or other high crime or misdemeanor may be impeached by the House of Delegates and prosecuted before the Senate, which shall have the sole power to try impeachments. When sitting for that purpose, the senators shall be on oath or affirmation, and no person shall be convicted without the concurrence of two-thirds of the senators present. Judgment in case of impeachment shall not extend further than removal from office and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust, or profit under the Commonwealth; but the person convicted shall nevertheless be subject to indictment, trial, judgment, and punishment according to law. The Senate may sit during the recess of the General Assembly for the trial of impeachments."
Impeachment requires 2/3 of the Senate to agree. Safe to say, that ain't happening.

Doesn’t matter the reason, is it logistically possible to stall Youngkin here?

You stall Youngkin when he becomes Governor by blaming him for everything and by stalling his agenda, and encouraging the citizenry to think ill of him by making it look like he's untrustworthy when he subsequently is unable to fulfill his promises. He then becomes unpopular as his term passes by, as he fails to fix the problems he said he'd fix.
It's a long play but it's the best way to do it.