Biden's Ceiling In TX

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not really... Hillary's ceiling was only around 43%... It's very unlikely it would swing from 43% to 50%.

People here are just really overestimating Biden's numbers.

Hillary barely invested in TX, how can you say that was her ceiling? In a state like TX registration/turnout operation is crucial.

Clinton actually dumped boatloads of money into TV ads in TX and iirc also invested loads into vote registering and such. It was in fact one of the reasons she did so well there in 2016.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not really... Hillary's ceiling was only around 43%... It's very unlikely it would swing from 43% to 50%.

People here are just really overestimating Biden's numbers.

Hillary barely invested in TX, how can you say that was her ceiling? In a state like TX registration/turnout operation is crucial.

Clinton actually dumped boatloads of money into TV ads in TX and iirc also invested loads into vote registering and such. It was in fact one of the reasons she did so well there in 2016.

If 43% is what boatloads of cash got Hillary, perhaps my initial goal of 47% was too steep. Biden's ceiling is probably like 45-46%.

I would say that Biden can still win TX, but it'd be a tough climb, and it'd rely on a lot of things going right for him. Realistically his ceiling is around 48-49% I guess, but most likely he gets between 45 and 47 percent, with Trump winning by 2-3 points.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ultimately I voted 47% because 48-49% seems overly optimistic in extremis as of right now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Clinton actually dumped boatloads of money into TV ads in TX and iirc also invested loads into vote registering and such. It was in fact one of the reasons she did so well there in 2016.

TV ads don't do anything - certainly not on that scale. It's just a famously ubiquitous money pit that desperate and relatively clueless politicians constantly fill, and political consultants milk, every 2 years.

Clinton did well because Trump accelerated a shift of voters between the coalitions, and Texas was particularly vulnerable to that. I mean, it's not like Clinton's TV ads from 2016 managed to sweep Democrats into power all over the state's urban centers in 2018.

I said it was one of the reasons, not the sole reason or even the biggest reason.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anything more than a 2-3 point win for Biden in Texas seems pretty implausible, unless it becomes a historic landslide, while I can't see Trump getting a double digit win in Texas. Trump probably does win but by a mid to low single digit margin.

Texas is extremely likely to be close either way.