Biden's Ceiling In TX

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

What is Biden's ceiling in TX? I'm guessing 47% but O'Rourke outperforming Hillary's raw numbers gives the slightest hope for an even bigger surge in the state during a Presidential year.

[brucejoel99]

Probably right around 50%.

[iceman]

Those who chose 50% or more than 50% are either deluded or wishful thinkers.

[brucejoel99]

Those who chose 50% or more than 50% are either deluded or wishful thinkers.

Or just somebody who understands how trends work.

[iceman]

Not really... Hillary's ceiling was only around 43%... It's very unlikely it would swing from 43% to 50%.

People hacks here are just really overestimating Biden's numbers.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Not really... Hillary's ceiling was only around 43%... It's very unlikely it would swing from 43% to 50%.

People here are just really overestimating Biden's numbers.

Hillary barely invested in TX, how can you say that was her ceiling? In a state like TX registration/turnout operation is crucial.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not really... Hillary's ceiling was only around 43%... It's very unlikely it would swing from 43% to 50%.

People here are just really overestimating Biden's numbers.

Hillary barely invested in TX, how can you say that was her ceiling? In a state like TX registration/turnout operation is crucial.

Clinton actually dumped boatloads of money into TV ads in TX and iirc also invested loads into vote registering and such. It was in fact one of the reasons she did so well there in 2016.

[S019]

I'll say 49%, I think in a best case scenario, Biden could win it 49-48 or 49-47

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not really... Hillary's ceiling was only around 43%... It's very unlikely it would swing from 43% to 50%.

People here are just really overestimating Biden's numbers.

Hillary barely invested in TX, how can you say that was her ceiling? In a state like TX registration/turnout operation is crucial.

Clinton actually dumped boatloads of money into TV ads in TX and iirc also invested loads into vote registering and such. It was in fact one of the reasons she did so well there in 2016.

If 43% is what boatloads of cash got Hillary, perhaps my initial goal of 47% was too steep. Biden's ceiling is probably like 45-46%.

I would say that Biden can still win TX, but it'd be a tough climb, and it'd rely on a lot of things going right for him. Realistically his ceiling is around 48-49% I guess, but most likely he gets between 45 and 47 percent, with Trump winning by 2-3 points.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ultimately I voted 47% because 48-49% seems overly optimistic in extremis as of right now.

[Xing]

48-49%, or about a 1% win with third party voting factored in.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Not really... Hillary's ceiling was only around 43%... It's very unlikely it would swing from 43% to 50%.

People here are just really overestimating Biden's numbers.

Hillary barely invested in TX, how can you say that was her ceiling? In a state like TX registration/turnout operation is crucial.

Clinton actually dumped boatloads of money into TV ads in TX and iirc also invested loads into vote registering and such. It was in fact one of the reasons she did so well there in 2016.

Did she? I don't recall Clinton investing in voter registration in TX and the DNC definitely wasn't there. She only ran one week of ads touting her Dallas Morning News endorsement in October 2016. Hardly enough to move hundreds of thousands of votes.

[Tartarus Sauce]

52%

[MARGINS6729]

Trump will probably win it by 9-5 points.

[Frenchrepublican]

Around 48%

Trump would probably win it 52/47 if the election was held today.

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden will make it close but not close enough.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In this environment,  Biden definitely can win TX

[chibul]

I voted 50% but I think in order for that to happen, Trump has to be in the low to mid 30's as far as approval rating and we have a long way to go for that to happen.

[Nyvin]

Something in the 47-48% range.

[Tender Branson]

It’s 48-49%.

But if he picks Cortez as VP, it could get interesting ...

[here2view]

I said 48%. I expect Trump to win 51-46, with 3% going to third parties. Texas is Likely R IMO

Best case scenario is a 48-47 or 48-46 Biden win, with the rest going to third parties.

[Catalyst138]

48% since that’s Beto’s number. I don’t see him doing better than Beto unless it’s a big landslide.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In this environment, when Trump is down 6 to 10 pts again, TX can flip. During ST primaries when Biden was winning TX, Trump was again down to Biden in TX

[Arizona Iced Tea]

High 40ish, he could get close like Beto did, but just doesn't have the votes to win it

[The Mikado]

I'm willing to pick 48 as a ceiling. My "guess" for TX is something like 51-46 (a substantial move from 52-43 last time), but it could be closer than that.