2020 New York Redistricting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

If the county's BOE had just counted votes faster, then Biden very probably would have won the country outright.

What do you mean by this? Did they throw out some Biden votes for being counted too late after election day?

They were too slow to count the votes. By the time they ran out of time, there were still some votes left to count, that had to be left uncounted. These very, very likely would have flipped the county to Biden, considering that there was a major pro-R vote bias in New York that year.

Oh ok. What was the deadline? Tenney and Brindisi were still battling it out into February as as I recall.

Whenever final results had to be certified in New York, I guess?
Of course there is more time to count votes for a congressional race than a presidential one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

If the county's BOE had just counted votes faster, then Biden very probably would have won the country outright.

What do you mean by this? Did they throw out some Biden votes for being counted too late after election day?

They were too slow to count the votes. By the time they ran out of time, there were still some votes left to count, that had to be left uncounted. These very, very likely would have flipped the county to Biden, considering that there was a major pro-R vote bias in New York that year.

Oh ok. What was the deadline? Tenney and Brindisi were still battling it out into February as as I recall.

Whenever final results had to be certified in New York, I guess?
Of course there is more time to count votes for a congressional race than a presidential one.

I thought New York didn't actually certify its results until around June. It wouldn't be an issue during the electoral count, given that Biden had obviously won NY, but I imagine if ballot counting persisted as long as it did for NY-22, it also would've for Suffolk County.

The new congressional term starts in early January. The Electoral College sits in early December. One month of difference makes a difference especially when the BOE takes so long to count votes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just for fun lol

Welcome to the forum!
EDIT: Lol, misread your post count. Good map, btw.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge.

I would not be surprised if that was what was required.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What does a "least change" map look like in this context?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/543265da-88d8-4369-8c80-28c131885afa
Thoughts on this map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/543265da-88d8-4369-8c80-28c131885afa
Thoughts on this map?

-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.

Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/543265da-88d8-4369-8c80-28c131885afa
Thoughts on this map?

-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.

Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac

The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/543265da-88d8-4369-8c80-28c131885afa
Thoughts on this map?

-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.

Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac

The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

Back then, there was no "no unduly law," and you have not answered the question as to why you drew the lines the way you drew them other than to screw the already underrepresented Pubs out of more seats. If you don't have talking points, you don't have much of a defense.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5afddbc1-4b19-4d35-a9df-4fe8c97d2b5b
I've removed the arm to Utica and reconfigured all but one of the districts in Central and Northern NY in this alternate version.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/543265da-88d8-4369-8c80-28c131885afa
Thoughts on this map?

-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.

Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac

The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

Back then, there was no "no unduly law," and you have not answered the question as to why you drew the lines the way you drew them other than to screw the already underrepresented Pubs out of more seats. If you don't have talking points, you don't have much of a defense.

Well, by respecting jurisdictional lines and compactness, while geography may favor the Democrats, it does not unduly favor the Democrats.

The alternate version I posted in any case does seem to adhere to compactness standard, even if the previous version (with its arm to Utica) does not.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/543265da-88d8-4369-8c80-28c131885afa
Thoughts on this map?

-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.

Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac

The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

Back then, there was no "no unduly law," and you have not answered the question as to why you drew the lines the way you drew them other than to screw the already underrepresented Pubs out of more seats. If you don't have talking points, you don't have much of a defense.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5afddbc1-4b19-4d35-a9df-4fe8c97d2b5b
I've removed the arm to Utica and reconfigured all but one of the districts in Central and Northern NY in this alternate version.

Counsel, what is the reason for that NY-21 chop into Madison County? Please be specific. And what do northern Washington County and Binghamton have in common? Why is NY-19 going up there?

"north Washington County" and Binghamton in the same CD does sound like the sort of question that would hurt in a court hearing. I've done round two of revisions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

On another note, here is a gerrymander designed to turn as much congressional districts as possible in Upstate New York into a competitive swing district. No municipalities were split.
DRA link

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Map A looks bad for Jamaal Bowman.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wait, 4-142? As in, only 4 votes in favor? Ouch.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The obvious answer in my view is to put red areas in south Brooklyn into the two black seats and Nadler's seat. Nadler already has a bunch of the territory and I highly doubt a Manhattan based district would be in any danger. Obviously the black districts would be incredibly safe. They still might not want those voters but it'd basically be personal preference and not an existential threat

Isn't the alternative to take liberal gentrifiers that are more inclined to vote for primary challengers than more conservative South Brooklynites likely would?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/CatieEdmondson/status/1482029647068082176?s=20

So much for any potential overperformance.

There's loads of moderate heroes in the Syracuse area; the right kind of R could definitely win here. But it's still much harder to defend this seat if it's open.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1480675503451389953

This is pathetic. Most if not all of them are in ultra-blue seats. Unless they are entering an incumbent v incumbent primary in the current map - they might, I don't know about that for sure - they should shut up or be ignored. I can't think of any good reason other than that any of them would have to complain. Imagine being an incumbent representative whose biggest reelection-related fear is being put in a seat that (gasp!) only went for their party by some 30 points instead of 40-70. Those who complained should have their names publicly released so Democrats nationally can humiliate them and hopefully primary them. You have to have extremely low self-confidence to think you could somehow lose in an NYC district as a Democrat.

Most likely it is not due to concern over losing the GE - it's unfamiliar groups being involved in the primary. Groups they don't currently represent.
Problem is, change and churn mean incumbents have that already. And as I previously noted, southern Brooklyn, though overwhelmingly registered Dem, is probably more deferential to incumbents than gentrifying territory in northern Brooklyn would be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1480675503451389953

This is pathetic. Most if not all of them are in ultra-blue seats. Unless they are entering an incumbent v incumbent primary in the current map - they might, I don't know about that for sure - they should shut up or be ignored. I can't think of any good reason other than that any of them would have to complain. Imagine being an incumbent representative whose biggest reelection-related fear is being put in a seat that (gasp!) only went for their party by some 30 points instead of 40-70. Those who complained should have their names publicly released so Democrats nationally can humiliate them and hopefully primary them. You have to have extremely low self-confidence to think you could somehow lose in an NYC district as a Democrat.

Most likely it is not due to concern over losing the GE - it's unfamiliar groups being involved in the primary. Groups they don't currently represent.
Problem is, change and churn mean incumbents have that already. And as I previously noted, southern Brooklyn, though overwhelmingly registered Dem, is probably more deferential to incumbents than gentrifying territory in northern Brooklyn would be.

No offense, but I didn't really get a lot of what you just said over there. Could you possibly reword it a bit?

The rules of the road are that New York City is overwhelmingly, overwhelmingly, registered Democrats. Even a huge chunk of hardline GOP voters are registered Dem because that way they have somewhat of a voice in how the city is run indirectly. And there are also more culturally conservative or moderate people in Southern Brooklyn who are generally establishment-friendly and not hostile to the idea of machine politics at all - they are more pliable, essentially.
Meanwhile Northern Brooklyn is very much increasingly gentrifiers - think places like Bedford-Stuyvesant. These are generally liberals - especially white liberals - more inclined to vote for primary challengers. And they are more likely to vote too.

Problem is, the liberal gentrifier territory is presently within the borders of seats represented by these congressmen, and the more "machine-friendly” Southern Brooklyn areas aren't (mostly). And incumbents are generally inclined to want to have as least change in their districts as possible, something we've seen time and time again this redistricting cycle. This tendency is strong enough to make cracking NY-11 not a certain proposition, despite the math being incredibly easy to bring it about on paper.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was promised maps this weekend, where are the F****** maps?

It's time someone mapped out how the process actually will work. I don't like the uncertainty.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1487882589339848709?s=20&t=XODby3...

So it seems they did not actually do the Staten Island Ferry district after all...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has Downstate NY ever had a district that spanned five counties and a near-majority of NYC boroughs?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like quasi-least change in Western New York.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is ridiculous. Why can't they just show us a map of the damn map? 

The Rent is Too Damn High. The Map Release is Too Damn Slow.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good news for Carolyn Maloney: her seat is more in Manhattan than it used to.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1488550185919729665?s=20&t=99XrPO...

Full Senate Map. 45 districts are more than 55% Biden according to DRA. This is larger then the present caucus, but there were a lot of 52-48ish Biden seats on the old map cause of the lengths the GOP previously went to spread out and maximize their vote.



Some very crazy stuff going on in South Brooklyn. SD20 (peach) is an asian seat though, and SD19 (olive) is even more of a Felder pack. SD07 (light brown) in South Queens and Rockaways is much safer than it appears.

This looks like it's targeting Sue Serino.