Hungarian elections and politics

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

B I G   T E N T

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1340725484401913856

Wasn't something like this done for the most recent local elections?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

People are completely free to protest against and vote against Fidesz. However, most of the media is bought up by Fidesz-friendly businessmen.
So it's definitely very far from electoral-type events, but also not quite as balanced as, say, the American electoral one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1509431225781469189
Well, seems like there are more structural barriers for the opposition than just the media landscape… (what’s particularly outrageous is that this blatant electoral fraud operation is being allowed to happen across EU borders!)

The election is definitely theoretically winnable for the opposition — polling has been genuinely competitive but has sadly shown a turn towards Fidesz in recent weeks — but it’s hard not be pretty pessimistic with how heavily the deck is stacked against them.

I don't think I've ever heard of something like this happening previously.
Regardless, the exact impact this will have on the election will depend on how many ballots were treated this way.
This foul play should be investigated. Unfortunately, Orban is unlikely to allow any real investigation to move forward. Maybe the EU should do it if he isn't.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This case was about two dozens of ballots, while the circumstances were rather strange. (Any professional fraudster would be able to destroy the votes properly and in a private place.) Romanian police is investigating, but we might never know if this was an actual proof of fraud or somebody created a setup. Nevertheless, the mail voting process is a mess, local Fidesz-alligned political organisations are participating in the collection and transfer of the vote and the integrity of the process is very limited. Still, this type of fraud might “only” endanger a few thousands of opposition party list votes: Hungarians living abroad do not vote on individual candidates and 95+% of them voted for Fidesz in 2018. The other widely criticised element of the mail vote is the registration: there is no need to renew it since 2014, and as far as Hungary does not have access to local death certificates, thousands of deceased people also receive voting documents.

But the mail vote is not the main inbuilt adventage for Orbán. Media control (especial in rural Hungary, where there are no independent local outlets), governmental propaganda ads outspending the parties (even in the last few weeks of the campaign) and the election district borders are way more important factors.

Interesting background info, thanks. Nice to see a Hungarian opining on this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anyone have links for non-geoblocked TV coverage and also results sites including maps?

Thanks!

I found this live coverage of Hír TV on Youtube:

Thanks! I tried to search "választási tudósítás" on Youtube and got nothing worthwhile.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The LDP called, it thinks Fidesz is too strong.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So looks like this is pretty much over at this point? Just as I predicted.

It seems to be over at this point. The only real question is if Fidesz gets 2/3, which might come down to Budapest and Miskolc.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

AHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHA https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1510703205193175041?cxt=HHwWgsCqqfSjjPcpAAAA

Oppositions do not win elections, governments lose them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Orban is now speaking before the country.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

yes, they might come below 133, but they have Our Homeland to amend the constitution. the opposition alliance is completely demolished.

What do you think the future is for the Hungarian opposition?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Péter Márki-Zay is now speaking. EU flags in the backdrop.  He mentioned Hitler and Yugoslavia, but I don't know Hungarian well at all, so I can't tell exactly what he said.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Péter Márki-Zay is now speaking. EU flags in the backdrop.  He mentioned Hitler and Yugoslavia, but I don't know Hungarian well at all, so I can't tell exactly what he said.

He said "We know from history that Milosevic was even more popular during the bombing of Yugoslavia, as well as Hitler. Propaganda is what won the elections for Fidesz."

Personal translation, my Hungarian is between B2 and C1, so not 1/1.

Ah. Thanks for translating.
That sort of comment makes sense for him to say.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What was the spoiled ballot rate?  We should de facto count spoiled ballot as a "Yes"

Can't find that yet, however, if the referendum is declared valid, it will mean that over 50% of the electorate cast a valid vote. Turnout was in the high 60s, so it would mean an overwhelming majority for NO in any case.

Totally agree.  I am just interested in the true scale of the No victory which is most likely not 92-96 but clearly quite large.  It seems Márki-Zay has accused Orbán of an anti-LGBT agenda so I am trying to figure out how badly that backfired on the united opposition.

It might have been the best tactical move to just not play Fidesz's game at all here, but it doesn't seem like that was very possible, given that the opposition base likely wanted Marki-Zay to take a stand.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The referendum wasn't meant to pass. It's red meat to supercharge the right wing conservative voter base's turn out and looking at the results, I say the ploy has worked perfectly.

That seems to be what it looks like.  This seems to be a re-run of the 2004 ROC DPP Prez Chen re-election strategy.  DPP put a bunch of referendum items that will not pass the threshold to pass but did push up DPP turnout to give Chen narrow re-election.  In the 2018 ROC local elections, the KMT returned the favor by doing the same making a bad election night for the DPP a disastrous one.

Reminds me of how in 2004 Republicans put SSM bans on the ballot in swing states to energize the right-leaning vote to help Bush get re-elected.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Boy I have never really post on this board but i decide to check it out and it turns out between this and the France thread there are rw posters on this site who simp for wannabe dictators and “reformed” Nazis

The reformed Nazis are a key component of the opposition coalition for the record.

Yes, this is undeniable.
Worth noting that in 2014 most of the opposition teamed up, excluding Jobbik, and it didn't really work for them either.