Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some NDP pickups, 20+ swings:

Toronto Centre  53.7%  +34.2
Ottawa Centre  46.1%  +25.6
St. Paul's  36%  +25.5
University-Rosedale (new riding) 49.7%  +25.4
Spadina-Fort York  49.7%  +23.0
Scarborough Southwest  45.5%  +21.9
Davenport  60.3%  +20.1

Some PC pickups, 20+ swings:

Etobicoke North  52.5%  +30
King-Vaughan (new riding)  56.6%  +24.3
Vaughan-Woodbridge  50.5%  +23.4
Markham-Unionville  62.4%  +21.6

Markham-Unionville was one of the few CPC gains in 2015, and it also flipped here. Is there some kind of Conservative trend in the area?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many PC 18/LIB 15 ridings are there? How many NDP 18/LIB 15 ridings are there?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You know, I may not be happy with the final result, but I can at least enjoy the obliteration of the Liberals and their loss of party status. F**k them forever and may they never rise again, although they probably will, as is tradition.

If the Liberals are gone, you may be more likely to get more NDP governments, but you may also get more PC ones. Be careful what you wish for.
I'd prefer 15 years of center-leftist government than 15 years of right-wing and then solidly-left-wing government alternating!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And this is why despite all the complaints about it, I like the two party system in the US. So frustrating to see RW Govt's take power because of a fractured left wing.

Eh. There's underlying assumptions there that Liberal + NDP are "mere progressives" to borrow a Christian term and that merged party would get 100% of their votes. I don't believe that either assumption is true. The Liberals and NDP are more diverse than their old conservative counterparts and therefore would have trouble holding that coalition together.

I mean, can you really see Scott Brison sitting in a caucus with say Niki Ashton? My guess is if the Liberals and NDP merged right-Liberals would jump to the Tories in sufficient numbers to create a 50/50 two party system like Oz and the USA.

Exactly.  Had Andrea Horwath won, you'd probably have grousing over a "fractured right (or at least centre/right) wing".

Incidentally,  Ann Hoggarth in Barrie-Innisfil had by far the worst incumbent Lib result: 12.52% (a point worse than the non-incumbent running in BSOM next door)

Wasn't she the Liberal who won by the narrowest margin in 2014?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

how different?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone have a blank, MS Paint-editable template of Ontario's provincial ridings?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah Horwath for now is fairly safe. The people getting the boot are her campaign staff who sent Horwath and NDP resources to reach seats rather then shoring up the NDP-leaning ones in the south. The only reason she would get the boot is if the provincial NDP decides that they need someone with a more 'moderate' image at the helm to pull in the left-liberals in the 905. If that happens though, it would be several years in the future, not right post-election.

Alright at this point I'm convinced you have literally no idea what you're talking about. This post demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of these election results, the campaign preceding it, Canadian political dynamics, and Ontario political geography entirely. I've noticed this pattern for a while now and I honestly mean this in the least offensive way possible, but please stop writing posts with an authoritative tone in international election threads where you don't actually know anything about the topic at hand. It's embarrassing for you, it's a distraction from other conversations in-thread, and it openly spreads misinformation to anyone who doesn't actually know the facts at hand.

Your post is wrong on so many levels but rather than explain line by line why you're wrong, I want to take this opportunity address the "disease" rather than this "symptom", so to speak -- your approach to participating in international election discussions. You're the Drake of International Elections and it's not working any better for you than it is for him

I'm just going to nicely ignore the personal attacks and instead argue each of my points.
snip

As one of Baconking's friends I apologize on his behalf for the undeserved harsh attacks on your character, even though he's shown not one bit of guilt for making them, and he's never expressed any remorse for them from what I've seen.
You are an excellent poster, so is Baconking, and it'd be nice if we could all be friends.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ugh that Doug Saunders tweet was cringeworthy. I can't believe you can get a column in a national paper and not know at least the basics of our electoral geography.

Chretien called...and Martin called...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The transposed 2015 federal results in Northern Ontario:

Kiiwetinoong - NDP
Kenora-Rainy River - Cons
Thunder Bay-Atikokan - Lib
Thunder Bay-Superior North - Lib
Algoma-Manitoulin - NDP
Sault Ste. Marie - Lib
Mushkegowuk-James Bay - NDP
Timmins - Lib
Timiskaming-Cochrane - Lib
Nickel Belt - Lib
Sudbury - Lib
Nipissing - Lib

thx, the map has been edited.